Kinematics and Physics of Celestial Bodies

, Volume 28, Issue 2, pp 62–68 | Cite as

Bicentennial decrease of the solar constant leads to the Earth’s unbalanced heat budget and deep climate cooling

  • Kh. I. AbdusamatovEmail author
Solar Physics


Long-wave energy emitted by the Earth-atmosphere into space is characterized by changes in power over time that always lag behind the changes in power of the absorbed solar radiation due to slow variation in enthalpy of the Earth-atmosphere system. Long-term variation of the solar energy radiation absorbed by the Earth remains uncompensated by the energy radiated into space over the interval of time that is determined by the thermal inertia. The basic state of the climate system is when the debit and credit sides in the Earth’s global annual mean energy budget (including the air and water envelopes) are almost always unbalanced. The annual mean balance of the heat budget of the Earth-atmosphere over a long time period will reliably define the behavior and magnitude of the energy excess accumulated by the Earth or energy deficit to allow us to determine adequately and to predict beforehand the trend and amplitude of the forthcoming climate change using the prognosis of variations in the total solar irradiance (solar constant). The decrease in solar constant has been observed since the early 1990s. The Earth as a planet will have a negative balance in the energy budget in the future as well, because the Sun is entering the decline phase of the bicentennial luminosity changes. This will lead to a drop in temperature in approximately 2014. The increase in albedo and decrease in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere will result in the additional decrease in absorbed portion of the solar energy and reduced greenhouse effect. The additional drop in temperature exceeding the effect of decreased solar constant can occur as a result of successive feedback effects. A deep bicentennial minimum in solar constant is to be anticipated in 2042 ± 11 and the 19th Little Ice Age (for the last 7500 years) may occur in 2055 ± 11.


Solar Activity Energy Budget Celestial Body Thermal Inertia Heat Budget 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. 1.
    Kh. I. Abdussamatov, “Long-Term Variations of the Integral Radiation Flux and Possible Temperature Changes in the Solar Core,” Kin. Phys. Celest. Bodies 21, 328–332 (2005).Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    Kh. I. Abdussamatov, “The Time of the End of the Current Solar Cycle and the Relationship Between Duration of 11-Year Cycles and Secular Cycle Phase,” Kin. Phys. Celest. Bodies 22, 141–143 (2006).Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Kh. I. Abdussamatov, “Decrease of the Solar Radiation Flux and Drastic Fall of the Global Temperature on the Earth in the Middle of the XXI Century,” Izv. Krym. Astrofiz. Observ. 103, No. 4, 292–298 (2007).Google Scholar
  4. 4.
    Kh. I. Abdussamatov, “Optimal Prediction of the Peak of the Next 11-Year Activity Cycle and of the Peaks of Several Succeeding Cycles on the Basis of Long-Term Variations in the Solar Radius or Solar Constant,” Kin. Phys. Celest. Bodies 23, 97–100 (2007).ADSCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. 5.
    Kh. I. Abdussamatov, “The Sun Is Responsible for Climate,” Nauka i Zhizn’, No. 1, 34–42 (2009) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    Kh. I. Abdussamatov, The Sun Dictates the Climate of the Earth (Logos, St. Petersburg, 2009. - 197 p.) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    S. I. Avdyushin and A. D. Danilov, “The Sun, Weather, and Climate: A Present-Day View of the Problem (Review),” Geomagn. Aeron. 40, 545–555 (2000).Google Scholar
  8. 8.
    Climate Oscillations of the Last Millenium, Ed. by E. P. Borisenkov (Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 1988. - 408 p.) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    H. I. Abdussamatov, “About the Long-Term Coordinated Variations of the Activity, Radius, Total Irradiance of the Sun and the Earth’s Climate,” in Proceedings of IAU Symposium No. 223 (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2004), pp. 541–542.Google Scholar
  10. 10.
    H. I. Abdussamatov, A. I. Bogoyavlenskii, S. I. Khankov, and Y. V. Lapovok, “Modeling of the Earth’s Planetary Heat Balance with Electrical Circuit Analogy,” J. Electromagn. Anal. Appl. 2, 133–138 (2010).Google Scholar
  11. 11.
    S. Bal, S. Schimanke, T. Spangehl, and U. Cubasch, “On the Robustness of the Solar Cycle Signal in the Pacific Region,” Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L14809–L14814 (2011).ADSCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. 12.
    J. A. Eddy, “The Maunder Minimum,” Science 192, 1189–1202 (1976).ADSCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. 13.
    W. Herschel, “Observations Tending to Investigate the Nature of the Sun, in Order to Find the Causes Or Symptoms of Its Variable of Light and Heat; with Remarks on the Use that May Possibly be Drawn from Solar Observations,” Phil. Trans. R. Soc. London 91, 265–318 (1801).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. 14.
    N. A. Krivova, S. K. Solanki, and T. Wenzler, “ACRIM-Gap and Total Solar Irradiance Revisited: Is There a Secular Trend between 1986 and 1996?,” Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L20101 (2009).ADSCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. 15.
    J. L. Lean, “Short Term, Direct Indices of Solar Variability,” Space Sci. Rev. 94, 39–51 (2000).ADSCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. 16.
    M. J. McPhaden, T. Lee, and D. McClurg, “El Nino and Its Relationship to Changing Back-Ground Conditions in the Tropical Pacific Ocean,” Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L15709–L15712 (2011).ADSCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. 17.
    M. Penn and W. Livingston, “Long-Term Evolution of Sunspot Magnetic Fields,” arXiv:1009.0784v1 [astro-ph.SR] (2010).Google Scholar
  18. 18.
    J. R. Petit, J. Jouzel, D. Raynaud, et al., “Climate and Atmospheric History of the Past 420,000 Years from the Vostok Ice Core, Antarctica,” Nature 399, 429–436 (1999).ADSCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. 19.
    A. I. Shapiro, W. Schmutz, E. Rozanov, et al., “A New Approach to the Long-Term Reconstruction of the Solar Irradiance Leads to Large Historical Solar Forcing,” Astron. Astrophys. 529, A67 (2011).ADSCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. 20.
    S. K. Solanki and N. A. Krivova, “Solar Irradiance Variations: From Current Measurements to Long-Term Estimates,” Solar Phys. 224, 197–208 (2004).ADSCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. 21.
    K. E. Trenberth, J. T. Fasullo, and J. Kiehl, “Earth’s Global Energy Budget,” Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 90, 311–324 (2009).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Allerton Press, Inc. 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Central Astronomical Observatory at PulkovoRussian Academy of SciencesSt. PetersburgRussia

Personalised recommendations