Kinematics and Physics of Celestial Bodies

, Volume 25, Issue 3, pp 150–152 | Cite as

An optimal method for determining the time of the minimum of the 23rd solar cycle, July 2008

  • H. I. Abdussamatov
Solar Physics


The time of the minimum of the solar cycle is usually determined by the minimum of the average monthly sunspot number smoothed over 13 months, i.e., with a large time delay, not earlier than eight months after the event. A new optimal method which allows one to establish the time of the minimum of the cycle as early as four months after the event is proposed. In the new method, the indicator of the time of a cycle minimum is the time of reaching the minimum level of average monthly values of the solar constant after which four succeeding values of this constant are larger than the pre-ceding minimum level. It is shown that the minimum of the past 23rd solar cycle took place in July, and the new 24th cycle started in August 2008.


Solar Cycle Celestial Body 24th Cycle Cycle Minimum Solar Constant 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. 1.
    H. I. Abdussamatov, “Long-Term Variations of the Integral Radiation Flux and Possible Temperature Changes in the Solar Core,” Kin. Phys. Celest. Bodies 21(6), 328–332 (2005).Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    H. I. Abdussamatov, “The Time of the End of the Current Solar Cycle and the Relationship between Duration of 11-Year Cycles and Secular Cycle Phase,” Kin. Phys. Celest. Bodies 22(3), 141–143 (2006).Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    H. I. Abdussamatov, “Optimal Prediction of the Peak of the Next 11-Year Activity Cycle and of the Peaks of Several Succeeding Cycles on the Basis of Long-Term Variations in the Solar Radius or Solar Constant,” Kin. Phys. Celest. Bodies 23(3), 97–100 (2007).CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Allerton Press, Inc. 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Pulkovo ObservatoryRussian Academy of SciencesSt. PetersburgRussia

Personalised recommendations