Kinematics and Physics of Celestial Bodies

, Volume 23, Issue 3, pp 97–100 | Cite as

Optimal prediction of the peak of the next 11-year activity cycle and of the peaks of several succeeding cycles on the basis of long-term variations in the solar radius or solar constant

  • Kh. I. Abdusamatov
Solar Physics

Abstract

We propose a new technique for the optimal prediction of the peak of the next 11-year activity cycle prior to the cycle beginning and of the peaks of several succeeding cycles on the basis of long-term variations in the solar radius or solar constant. The method is based on the already established fact that the long-term cyclic variations of the activity, radius, and solar constant are correlated in both phase and amplitude, since they are caused by some common processes in the Sun. The peak of the succeeding cycle 24 is expected to have the height W max = 70 ± 10 (in units of relative sunspot number). The subsequent cycles 25 and 26, which will be formed during the descent of the current secular cycle, will have still lower peaks with the heights W max = 50 ± 15 and W max = 35 ± 20.

PACS numbers

96.90.+c 

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Copyright information

© Allerton Press, Inc. 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  • Kh. I. Abdusamatov
    • 1
  1. 1.Main Astronomical ObservatoryRussian Academy of SciencesSt. PetersburgRussian Federation

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