Abstract
This paper draws on a general equilibrium poisson pseudo maximum likelihood model augmented by a dynamic capital accumulation to estimate the effects of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) on intra-African trade flows. The empirical results show that the AfCFTA could raise intra-African trade by 24% in the short term and slightly more in the long run. However, the potential trade and welfare gains associated with the continental trade integration reform are expected to vary across countries, with the largest gains accruing to countries that exhibit relatively low intra-regional trade performance and level of integration pre-AfCFTA.
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Peer review under responsibility of the African Export-Import Bank
Data availability statement: The authors would like to confirm that the data which informed the study is available upon request from the corresponding author [HF].
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Fofack, H., Dzene, R. & Hussein, O.A.M. Estimating the Effect of AfCFTA on Intra-African Trade using Augmented GE-PPML. J Afr Trade 8 (Suppl 2), 62–76 (2021). https://doi.org/10.2991/jat.k.211122.001
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.2991/jat.k.211122.001