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Biologia

, Volume 69, Issue 11, pp 1510–1519 | Cite as

Impact of expected climate change on soil water regime under different vegetation conditions

  • Csilla Farkas
  • Györgyi GelybóEmail author
  • Zsófia Bakacsi
  • Ágota Horel
  • Andrea Hagyó
  • Laura Dobor
  • Ilona Kása
  • Eszter Tóth
Section Botany

Abstract

A mathematical model was applied for the Bükk Mountains (Hungary) to evaluate the effects of climate change on soil water balance elements and soil water regime. Model runs using SWAP model were performed for combinations of four distinctive soil types and three land use systems of arable land, grassland, and forest. The temporal variation of soil water regime under changing climatic conditions was examined considering no land cover change occurring in the future. The climate data consisted of the predictions of two regional climate models, the Swiss CLM and the Swedish RCA. The RCA results showed 45% to 50% and the CLM showed 5% to 14% higher future precipitation outlook compared to present conditions. Considering different land use types, the projected number of days with soil moisture deficit was the highest in forest ecosystems for both the upper 50 cm soil layer and the whole soil profile, which could be as high as 61% of days below optimal soil water content range. Our results showed increased water fluxes, especially in deep percolation in far future period and a strong influence of soil properties on the changes in the climate model results, indicating significant long-term effects of climate change on soil water regime.

Key words

climate change land use soil water regime SWAP model 

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Copyright information

© Versita Warsaw and Springer-Verlag Wien 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Csilla Farkas
    • 1
    • 2
  • Györgyi Gelybó
    • 2
    Email author
  • Zsófia Bakacsi
    • 2
  • Ágota Horel
    • 2
  • Andrea Hagyó
    • 2
    • 3
  • Laura Dobor
    • 4
  • Ilona Kása
    • 2
  • Eszter Tóth
    • 2
  1. 1.BioforskNorwegian Institute for Agricultural and Environmental ResearchÅsNorway
  2. 2.Institute of Soil Sciences and Agricultural Chemistry, Centre for Agricultural ResearchHungarian Academy of SciencesBudapestHungary
  3. 3.Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Monitoring Agricultural Resources UnitEuropean CommissionIspra VAItaly
  4. 4.Department of MeteorologyEötvös Loránd UniversityBudapestHungary

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