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Behaviormetrika

, Volume 11, Issue 16, pp 1–12 | Cite as

Statistical Analysis Methods of Delphi Consensus in Forecasting and Their Use for Policy Assessment

  • Hajime Eto
Article

Abstract

Consensus among experts in the technological forecasting by the Delphi method is here shown to be interpretable as a leading indicator or rather an antecedent factor of a national consensus and therefore as an intersubjective probability of choosing a particular policy among prospective policies when experts are properly selected. The condition under which this interpretation is valid is shown to hold in several Delphi surveys. Hence a logical foundation is obtained to fill two gaps: one gap between subjective opinions and an objective event of technological breakthroughs, and the other gap between the distributed opinions and a single event. Thus the statistical analysis of consensus is now given a meaning and the statistical methods are discussed to measure the consensus among experts in terms of, e.g., distribution matchings of their opinions. Experiences in technological and social forecastings and assessments are reported.

Key Words and Phrases

technological forecasting Delphi method expert opinion technology assessment consensus distribution matching vector correlation intergroup concordance 

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Copyright information

© The Behaviormetric Society 1984

Authors and Affiliations

  • Hajime Eto
    • 1
  1. 1.Institute of Socio-economic PlanningUniversity of TsukubaSakura, IbarakiJapan

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