Immigrants’ ages and the structure of stationary populations with below-replacement fertility

Abstract

A sustained regime of low fertility plus immigration yields an unusual kind of stationary population. The author demonstrates that all stationary populations have a common structure, and that the familiar replacement-level fertility population is the youngest among the many stationary populations corresponding to a particular life table. This finding has important consequences for policy because although fertility increase and immigration are equally effective at halting population decline, immigration is inferior as a means of rejuvenating low-fertility populations. In fact, an immigration-based policy could make a low-fertility population older rather than younger. The paper includes examples using U.S. and West German vital rates.

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This research was supported by an internal grant from Florida State University. An earlier version was presented at the 1991 meetings of the Southern Demographic Association. I thank an anonymous reviewer for some very helpful comments.

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Schmertmann, C.P. Immigrants’ ages and the structure of stationary populations with below-replacement fertility. Demography 29, 595–612 (1992). https://doi.org/10.2307/2061854

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Keywords

  • Stationary Population
  • Exit Rate
  • Native Fertility
  • Replacement Fertility
  • General Stationary Population