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New Estimates of Undocumented Mexican Migration and the Probability of Apprehension*

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Using a new source of data, we estimate the probability of apprehension among Mexican migrants attempting to cross into the United States without documents. Over the period 1965-1989 we found an average apprehension probability of .35, confirming earlier estimates. We then applied annual probabilities to estimate the gross volume of undocumented Mexican migration and adjusted these figures to derive estimates of the net undocumented inflow.

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We are grateful to Robert Warren, Karen Woodrow-Lafield, Katharine Donato, and Thomas Espenshade for their helpful comments and suggestions on an earlier draft of this article.

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Massey, D.S., Singer, A. New Estimates of Undocumented Mexican Migration and the Probability of Apprehension*. Demography 32, 203–213 (1995).

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