, Volume 34, Issue 1, pp 49–66 | Cite as

A theory of technophysio evolution, with some implications for forecasting population, health care costs, and pension costs

  • Robert W. FogelEmail author
  • Dora L. Costa
Economic Consequences of Aging for Populations and Individuals


We argue that over the past 300 years human physiology has been undergoing profound environmentally induced changes made possible by numerous advances in technology. These changes, which we call technophysio evolution, increased body size by over 50%, and greatly improved the robustness and capacity of vital organ systems. Because technophysio evolution is still ongoing, it is relevant to forecasts of longevity and morbidity and, therefore, to forecasts of the size of the elderly population and pension and health care costs.


National Health Interview Survey Secular Trend Labor Force Participation Rate Secular Decline Human Engine 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


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© Population Association of America 1997

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.National Bureau of Economic ResearchUniversity of ChicagoChicago
  2. 2.National Bureau of Economic ResearchMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusettsUSA

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