Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Fertility decline in Taiwan: A study using parity progression ratios

  • Measurement
  • Published:
Demography

Abstract

Taiwan’s decline in fertility is studied by using period parity progression ratios. Levels of marriage and motherhood are found to have been high and essentially constant though the late 1980s, suggesting that the decline has been due almost entirely to declines in second and higher order-births. Families with three or more children play an important role in maintaining the current level of fertility. The level of fertility would be even lower without these families. They contributed more than one-half child per woman to the total fertility rate during most of the 1980s. Total fertility rates computed from the period parity progression ratios indicate a substantially higher level of fertility than the conventional total fertility rate; they remained above or at replacement level through 1988. A formal demographic analysis suggests that the conventional total fertility rate has been depressed by shifts in age at childbearing.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Barclay, George W. 1954. Colonial Development and Population in Taiwan. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bloom, David and Anne R. Pebley. 1982. “Voluntary Childlessness: A Review of the Evidence and Implications.” Population Research and Policy Review 1(3): 203–24.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chang, Ming-Cheng, Ronald Freedman, and Te-Hsiung Sun. 1987. “Trends in Fertility, Family Size Preferences, and Family Planning Practice: Taiwan, 1961–85.” Studies in Family Planning 18(6): 320–37.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chiang, Chin Long and B.J. van den Berg. 1982. “A Fertility Table for the Analysis of Human Reproduction.” Mathematical Biosciences 62: 237–51.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cho, Lee-Jay, Robert D. Retherford, and Minja Kim Choe. 1986. The Own-Children Method of Fertility Estimation. Honolulu: University Press of Hawaii.

    Google Scholar 

  • Davis, Kingsley, Mikhail S. Bernstam, and Rita Ricardo-Cambell. 1986. Below-Replacement Fertility in Industrial Societies: Causes, Consequences, Policies. Supplement to Population and Development Review 12.

  • Dixon, Ruth B. 1971. “Explaining Cross-Cultural Variations in Age at Marriage and Proportions Never Marrying.” Population Studies 25: 215–34.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eaton, Joseph W. and Albert J. Mayer. 1954. Man’s Capacity to Reproduce. Glencoe, IL: The Free Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Feeney, Griffith. 1985. “Parity Progression Projection.” In International Population Conference, Florence 1985, Volume 4. Liége, Belgium: International Union for the Scientific Study of Population.

    Google Scholar 

  • Feeney, Griffith. 1986. “Period Parity Progression Measures of Fertility in Japan.” NUPRI Research Paper No. 35. Tokyo: Nihon University Population Research Institute.

    Google Scholar 

  • Feeney, Griffith. 1990. “The Demography of Aging in Japan.” NUPRI Research Paper No. 55. Tokyo: Nihon University Population Research Institute.

    Google Scholar 

  • Feeney, Griffith and Wolfgang Lutz. 1990. “Distributional Analysis of Period Fertility.” Pp. 169–95 and 271–78 in Future Demographic Trends in Europe and North America: What Can We Assume Today?, edited by Wolfgang Lutz. New York: Academic Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Feeney, Griffith and Yasuhiko Saito. 1985. “Progression to First Marriage in Japan: 1870–1980.” NUPRI Research Paper Series No. 24. Tokyo: Nihon University Population Research Institute.

    Google Scholar 

  • Feeney, Griffith, Feng Wang, Mingkun Zhou and Baoyu Xiao. 1989. “Recent Fertility Dynamics in China: Results from the 1987 One Percent Population Survey.” Population and Development Review 15(2): 297–322.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feeney, Griffith and Jingyuan Yu. 1987. “Period Parity Progression Measures of Fertility in China.” Population Studies 41: 77–102.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feichtinger, G. and Wolfgang Lutz. 1983. “Eine Fruchtbarkeitstafel auf Paritätsbasis.” Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft 9(3): 363–77.

    Google Scholar 

  • Foster, Andrew. 1990. “Cohort Analysis and Demographic Translation: A Comparative Study of Recent Trends in Age Specific Fertility Rates from Europe and North America.” Population Studies 44(2): 287–315.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Freedman, Ronald. 1986a. “Policy Options After the Demographic Transition: The Case of Taiwan.” Population and Development Review 12(1): 77–100.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • —. 1986b. “On Underestimating the Rate of Social Change: A Cautionary Note.” Population and Development Review 12(3): 529–32.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Freedman, Ronald, Ming-Cheng Chang, and Te-Hsiung Sun. 1982. “Household Composition, Extended Kinship and Reproduction in Taiwan: 1973–1980.” Population Studies 36(3): 395–411.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hajnal, J. 1947. “The Analysis of Birth Statistics in the Light of the Recent International Recovery of the Birthrate.” Population Studies 1: 137–64.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Henry, Louis. (1953) 1980. Fertility of Marriages: A New Method of Measurement. New York: United Nations. Originally published as Fécondité des Mariages: Nouvelle Methode de Mesure.

    Google Scholar 

  • Heuser, Robert L. 1976. Fertility Tables for Birth Cohorts by Color: United States, 1971–73. Rockville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kono, Shigemi and Akira Ishikawa. 1985. “Tempo and Parity Structure of Japanese Fertility.” Journal of Population Problems 174: 19–39. (In Japanese with English abstract.)

    Google Scholar 

  • Lee, Mei-lin. 1990. “Fertility Tempo and Fertility Transition in Taiwan.” Journal of Population Studies 13: 144–6. (In Chinese with English abstract.)

    Google Scholar 

  • Luther, Norman Y. and Lee-Jay Cho. 1988. “Reconstruction of Birth Histories from Census and Household Survey Data.” Population Studies 42(3): 451–72.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luther, Norman Y., Griffith Feeney, and Weimin Zhang. 1990. “One-child Families or a Baby Boom? Evidence from China’s One-per-Hundred Survey.” Population Studies 44: 341–57.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lutz, Wolfgang. 1989. Distributional Aspects of Human Fertility: A Global Comparative Perspective. New York: Academic Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lutz, Wolfgang and Feichtinger, G. 1989. “Altersstruktureffekte bei der Schätzung schliesslicher Paritätsverteilungen.” In Demographie in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland: Festschrift für Karl Schwarz, edited by C. Hahn, W. Linke, and R. Mackensen. Boppard am Rhein: Harald Boldt Verlag.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ní Bhrolcháin, Máire. 1987. “Period Parity Progression Ratios and Birth Intervals in England and Wales, 1941–71: A Synthetic Life Table Approach.” Population Studies 41(1): 103–25.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Republic of China, Ministry of the Interior. 1976. 1975 Taiwan-Fukien Demographic Fact Book: Republic of China. Taiwan: Ministry of the Interior.

    Google Scholar 

  • —. 1979. 1978 Taiwan-Fukien Demographic Fact Book: Republic of China. Taiwan: Ministry of the Interior.

    Google Scholar 

  • —. 1989. 1988 Taiwan-Fukien Demographic Fact Book: Republic of China. Taiwan: Ministry of the Interior.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ryder, Norman B. (1951) 1980. The Cohort Approach. New York: Arno.

    Google Scholar 

  • — 1964. “The Process of Demographic Translation.” Demography 1: 74–82.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • — 1980. “Components of Temporal Variations in American Fertility.” Pp. 15–54 in Demographic Patterns in Developed Societies, edited by R. W. Hiorns. London: Taylor and Francis.

    Google Scholar 

  • — 1982. “Progressive Fertility Measures.” Technical Bulletin No.8. London: World Fertility Survey.

    Google Scholar 

  • — 1983. “Cohort and Period Measures of Changing Fertility.” Pp. 737–56 in Determinants of Fertility in Developing Countries, Volume 2, edited by Rudolfo A. Buletao and Ronald D. Lee. New York: Academic Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, Peter C. 1980. “Asian Marriage Patterns in Transition.” Journal of Family History 5(1): 58–96.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taiwan Provincial Government, Department of Civil Affairs. 1971. 1970 Taiwan Demographic Fact Book: Republic of China. Nantou, Taiwan: Taiwan Provincial Government.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tuan, Chi-Hsien. 1958. “Reproductive Histories of Chinese Women in Rural Taiwan.” Population Studies 12: 40–50.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weinstein, Maxine, Te-Hsiung Sun, Ming-Cheng Chang, and Ronald Freedman. 1990. “Household Composition, Extended Kinship, and Reproduction in Taiwan: 1965–1985.” Population Studies 44(2): 217–39.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Westoff, Charles F. 1990. “The Return to Replacement Fertility: A Magnetic Force?” Pp. 227–33 and 271–78 in Future Demographic Trends in Europe and North America: What Can We Assume Today?, edited by Wolfgang Lutz. New York: Academic Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Whelpton, Pascal K. (1954) 1973. Cohort Fertility. Port Washington, NY: Kennikat Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Willems, P., S. Wijewickrema, and R. Lesthaeghe. 1981. “De Evolutie van de Vruchtbaarheid in Belgié, 1950–1980.” Brussel: Centrum voor Bevo1kings- en Gesinsstudién.

    Google Scholar 

  • Xenos, Peter. 1990. “A New Look at Asia’s Nuptiality Transition.” Paper presented at the Nihon University International Symposium on Family and Contemporary Japanese Culture: An International Perspective, October, Tokyo.

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. East-West Population Institute, The East-West Center, 96848, Honolulu, Hawaii

    Griffith Feeney

Authors
  1. Griffith Feeney
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Additional information

I am grateful to Ronald Freedman, Norman B. Ryder, Chi-hsien Tuan, and three anonymous Demography reviewers for comments on earlier drafts; to Helen Yang Hai-Cheng Feeney for comments and translation of Lee (1990); and to Ronald Lesthaeghe for providing a copy of Willems, Wijewickrema, and Lesthaeghe (1981) with English annotations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Feeney, G. Fertility decline in Taiwan: A study using parity progression ratios. Demography 28, 467–479 (1991). https://doi.org/10.2307/2061468

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2061468

Keywords

Search

Navigation