In many demographic analyses, such as the assessment of environmental cancer risks, one may be interested not only in the age-by-state distribution of the population but also in the distribution of the population by time spent in a given state. States can represent geographic areas, marital statuses, labor force participation, or states of epidemiologic exposure. Recursive formulas for the calculation of the distribution of the population according to exposure time are derived under time-invariant state transition rates. Although populations can have identical growth rates and identical age-by-state distributions, they can have very different distributions by exposure time. An application to the analysis of carcinogenic exposure states is given, using data from Finland. The effect of population heterogeneity on the estimated exposure time distributions is studied.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.
Alho, J., Kauppinen, T., & Sundquist, E. (1988). “Use of Exposure Registration in the Prevention of Occupational Cancer in Finland.” American Journal of Industrial Medicine, 13, 581–592.
Central Statistical Office of Finland. (1987). Labour Force Survey: Flow Statistics 1985–86, Ser. TY 1987:3. Helsinki: Central Statistical Office of Finland.
Çinlar, E. (1975). Introduction to Stochastic Processes. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
Hoel, D. C. (1985). “The Impact of Occupational Exposure Patterns on Quantitative Risk Estimation.” In Risk Quantitation and Regulatory Policy, Banbury Report 19, eds. D. C. Hod, R. A. Merrill, & F. P. Perera. Cold Spring Harbor, NY: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, pp. 105–118.
Rogers, A. (1975). Introduction to Multiregional Mathematical Demography. New York: Wiley.
Schoen, R., & Land, K. (1979). “A General Algorithm for Estimating a Markov-Generated Increment-Decrement Life Table With Applications to Marital-Status Patterns.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 761–776.
Singer, B., & Spilerman, S. (1974). “Social Mobility Models for Heterogeneous Populations.” In Sociological Methodology 1973–1974, ed. H. L. Costner. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass, pp. 356–401.
Vaupel, J. W., & Yashin, A. I. (1985) “Heterogeneity's Ruses: Some Surprising Effects of Selection on Population Dynamics.” American Statistician, 39, 176–185.
About this article
Cite this article
Alho, J.M. Estimation of Exposure Time Distributions. Demography 27, 313–321 (1990). https://doi.org/10.2307/2061456
- Transition Rate
- Labor Force Participation
- Stable Population
- Exposed Population
- Multistate Life Table