Demography

, Volume 16, Issue 1, pp 103–119 | Cite as

Seasonal migration and seasonal variation in fecundabillty: Effects on birth rates and birth intervals

  • Jane Menken
Article

Abstract

Seasonal patterns in conception rates have been documented in several recent studies. In this paper, a mathematical model of the reproductive process is developed through which the impact of such variation in conception rates is assessed. It is found that the effect on fertility can be quite substantial, but that the birth rate when seasonal variation is occurring is approximated well by the birth rate calculated when conception rates are constant at their mean. These results indicate that further documentation of seasonality in conception rates and exploration of the causes of these patterns and their change is an important area for demographic research.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Bongaarts, John, and Robert J. Potter, Jr. 1978. Personal communication.Google Scholar
  2. Chen, L. C, S. Ahmed, M. Gesche, and W. H. Mosley. 1974. A Prospective Study of Birth Interval Dynamics in Rural Bangladesh. Population Studies 28:277–298.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Kemeny, John, and J. Laurie Snell. 1960. Finite Markov Chains. New York: D. Van Nostrand Co.Google Scholar
  4. Leridon, Henri. 1973. Aspects Biornetriques de la Fecondite Humaine. I.N.E.D. Travaux et Documents, Cahier no. 65. Paris: Presses Universitaires de France.Google Scholar
  5. —. 1977. Human Fertility: The Basic Components. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
  6. Menken, Jane. 1975. Estimating Fecundability. Unpublished Ph.D. thesis. Princeton: Princeton University.Google Scholar
  7. Sheps, Mindel C, and Jane Menken. 1973. Mathematical Models of Conception and Birth. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
  8. van de Walle, F. 1975. Migration and Fertility in Ticino. Population Studies 29:447–462.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Population Association of America 1979

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jane Menken
    • 1
  1. 1.Office of Population ResearchPrinceton UniversityPrinceton

Personalised recommendations