Annual fertility rates from census data on own children: Comparisons with vital statistics data for the United States

Abstract

This paper begins by describing the procedure and data requirements for calculating annual fertility rates from census data on own children. Then, using data from the United States Censuses of 1960 and 1970, fully adjusted estimates are presented and compared with recorded vital statistics rates. Total fertility estimates derived from own children data for whites average less than two percent lower than the recorded rates—a difference that can be attributed partially to the fact that the estimates are adjusted for net eensus undercount but the recorded rates are not. Even without adjustments for mortality, children not living with their mothers, and net census undercount, the own children data estimates accurately replicate recordedtrends (even though thelevels are misspecified). The utility of own children data for the study of differential fertility is discussed.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

References

  1. Cho, Lee-Jay. 1968. Income and Differentials in Current Fertility. Demography 5:198–211.

    Google Scholar 

  2. Cho, Lee-Jay. 1971a. On Estimating Annual Birth Rates from Census Data on Children. Pp. 86-96 in Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, Social Statistics Section.

  3. —. 1971b. Korea: Estimating Current Fertility from the 1966 Census. Studies in Family Planning 2:74–78.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. —. 1974. The Own-Children Approach to Fertility Estimation: An Elaboration. Pp. 263–279 in International Population Conference, Liege, 1973. Volume 2. Liege: International Union for the Scientific Study of Population.

    Google Scholar 

  5. — W. H. Grabill, and D. J. Bogue. 1970. Differential Current Fertility in the United States. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

    Google Scholar 

  6. Coale, Ansley J., and M. Zelnik. 1963. New Estimates of Fertility and Population in the United States. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  7. Grabill, W. H., and L. J. Cho. 1965. Methodology for the Measurement of Current Fertility from Population Data on Young Children. Demography 2:50–73.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Kitagawa, Evelyn M., and P. M. Hauser. 1973. Differential Mortality in the United States. A Study in Socioeconomic Epidemiology. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  9. National Center for Health Statistics. 1972. Infant Mortality Rates: Socioeconomic Factors. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.

    Google Scholar 

  10. Retherford, R. D., and L. J. Cho. 1974. Age-Parity Specific Fertility Rates from Census or Survey Data on Own Children. Unpublished paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, New York.

  11. Shryock, H. S., J. S. Siegel, and Associates. 1971. The Methods and Materials of Demography. U.S. Bureau of the Census. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.

    Google Scholar 

  12. Siegel, J. S. 1974. Estimates of Coverage of the Population by Sex, Race, and Age in the 1970Census. Demography II: 1–23.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Rindfuss, R.R. Annual fertility rates from census data on own children: Comparisons with vital statistics data for the United States. Demography 13, 235–249 (1976). https://doi.org/10.2307/2060803

Download citation

Keywords

  • Total Fertility Rate
  • Recorded Rate
  • Current Fertility
  • Child Rate
  • Unadjusted Estimate