Abstract
Recent studies by Adelman and by Friedlander and Silver, which have investigated whether regression equations derived from cross-section data can be used to predict the impact of socioeconomic development on changing levels of fertility, are reviewed critically. Regression analyses based on data for 57 countries c. 1960 show that fertility (gross reproduction rate) varies cross-sectionally with region as well as with level of development (as measured by per capita income, percent labor force in primary sector, expectation of life, illiteracy rate). Using equations derived from the cross-section study and time-series data for five European countries during the period that their fertility rates fell, it is shown that predictions about past fertility changes are in error. The results suggest caution in the use of cross-section relations to predict the course of fertility in developing countries.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adelman, I. 1963. An econometric analysis of population growth. American Economic Review 53:314–339.
Barclay, G. W. 1958. Techniques of Population Analysis. New York: John Wiley.
Coale, A. J. 1956. The effects of changes in mortality and fertility rates on age composition. Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly 34:79–114.
Friedlander, S., and M. Silver. 1967. A quantitative study of the determinants of fertility behavior. Demography 4:30–70.
Russett, B. M. et aI. 1964. World Handbook of Political and Social Indicators. New Haven: Yale University Press.
United Nations. 1953. Progress of Literacy in Various Countries. New York.
United Nations. 1962. Population Bulletin No.6. With special reference to the situation and recent trends of mortality in the world. New York.
United Nations. 1965. Population Bulletin No.7. With special reference to the conditions and trends of fertility in the world. New York.
Weintraub, R. 1962. The birth rate and economic development. Econometrica 30:812–817.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Janowitz, B.S. An empirical study of the effects of socioeconomic development on fertility rates. Demography 8, 319–330 (1971). https://doi.org/10.2307/2060620
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2060620