Duration of residence and prospective migration: Further evidence


A basic assumption of the Cornell Mobility Model insofar as it is relevant to inter-community migration is that an individual’s propensity to move is a function of, among other things, his length of residence in the community. Parameters of the functional relationship of migration probabilities to duration status are estimated from migration histories for a sample of residents in Monterrey, Mexico, and compared with estimates reported by P. A. Morrison using data from Amsterdam, The Netherlands. In both data sets a negative nonlinear relation of the probability of migrating to duration status, as well as an interaction between age and duration status, is found. Values of parameters describing the relation within age groups differ sufficiently between the two data sets, however, to suggest that further specification of conditions under which a particular form of functional relation will obtain is necessary if the model is to be useful in migration research.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.


  1. Balan, Jorge, Elizabeth Jelin Balan, and Harley L. Browning. n.d. Technical Procedures in the Execution of the Monterrey Mobility Study. Austin: Population Research Center, The University of Texas. Mimeographed.

  2. Browning, Harley L., and Waltraut Feindt. n.d. Patterns of Migration to Monterrey. Austin : Population Research Center, The University of Texas. Mimeographed.

  3. Gibbs, Jack P. 1961. On demographic attributes of urbanization. In Jack P. Gibbs (ed.), Urban Research Methods. New York: Van Nostrand.

    Google Scholar 

  4. Goldstein, Sidney. 1958. Patterns of Mobility, 1910–1950. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.

    Google Scholar 

  5. —. 1964. The extent of repeated migration: an analysis based on the Danish population register. Journal of the American Statistical Association 59: 1121–1132.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. McGinnis, Robert. 1968. A stochastic model of migration. American Sociological Review 33: 712–722.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. McGinnis, Robert, and John E. Pilger. 1963. On a model for temporal analysis, Paper presented to the American Sociological Association, Los Angeles.

  8. Morrison, Peter A. 1967. Duration of residence and prospective migration: the evaluation of a stochastic model. Demography 4: 553–561.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. — 1969. Probabilities from longitudinal records. In Edgar F. Borgatta (ed.), Sociological Methodology 1969. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, Inc.

    Google Scholar 

  10. Myers, George C., Robert McGinnis, and George Masnick. 1967. The duration of residence approach to a dynamic stochastic model of internal migration: a test of the axiom of cumulative inertia. Eugenics Quarterly 14: 121–126.

    Google Scholar 

  11. Stern, Claudio. 1967. Un analisis regional de Mexico, Demografia y Economia 1: 92–117.

    Google Scholar 

  12. Taeuber, Karl E., William Haenszel, and Monroe G. Sirken. 1961. Residence histories and exposure residences for the United States population. Journal of the American Statistical Association 56: 824–834.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. United Nations. 1963. Statistical Yearbook, 1962. New York: United Nations.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information



Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Land, K.C. Duration of residence and prospective migration: Further evidence. Demography 6, 133–140 (1969). https://doi.org/10.2307/2060387

Download citation


  • Migration History
  • Duration Status
  • Residential History
  • Migration Probability
  • Migration Research