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On the relation of economic factors to recent and projected fertility changes

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Demography

Resumen

Este trabajo estuvo dirigido a analizar detalladamente las edades, de acuerdo a la muestra anual del Survey de los Estados Unidos, con el propósito de buscar cualquier aparente asociación—desde 1940—entre la fertilidad y las circunstancias económicas de jóvenes adultos—15 a 29 años—cuya conducta domina la rata total de fertilidad. El propósito es el and lisis a largo plazomas que de cambios de fertilidad de año en año, haciendo énfasis en la notable declinación ocurrida desde 1957. p ]Observando las condiciones económicas, nos damos cuenta que desde la decada del 50, los ingresos de las personas jóvenes han crecido en una forma vacilante y sus ratas de desempleo se han incrementado. Esta situación ha sido más severa entre los segmentos de población de menores ingresos dentro de esie grupo. La casa propia es menos usual entre las familias conjefes entre 18–24 año: el porcentaje de cargos importantes ha disminuido para esie grupo debido a la fuerte presión de sus obligaciones: muchos de los beneficioe especiales asociados con el status de veterano de guerro ya no están disponibles: finalmente, los jóvenes adultos de recientes años proceden de un medio ambiente más rico que el de sus predecesores de la década del 40 y llegan seguramente el tiempo de gestación con gustos mas costosos y consecuentemente deben comprar bienes de mayor precio.

Este desarrollo contrasta bruscamente con las desusualmente favorables circunstancias económicas de los jóvenes adultos de las décadas anteriores a 1950 y son consistentes con la hipótesis de que los factores económicos han sido, al menos en parte, responsables de la estabilidad de la rata de nacimientos y la subsecuente declinación de la fertilidad.

Mirando las proyecciones sobre fertilidad de la Oficina de Censos para 1975, este trabajo sugiere quela serie “C” de los Censos es más consistente conel probable curso de las condiciones económicas de los jóvenes adultos, aunque mas tarde se hará necesario un estudio más profundo. Una especulación. ulterior, basada en la reciente declinación de las ratas de fertilidad, presagia una declinación en el tamaño total de la familia, como puede suponerse en base a los actuales datos sobre esperanza del tamaño de la familia de los jóvenes adultos.

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References

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  2. For this reason, citations of the basic literature will not be repeated. Note may be made, however, of several new contributions bearing on the relation of economic factors to fertility: Irma Adelman, “An Econometric Analysis of Population Growth,” American Economic Review, LIII, No. 31 (June, 1963), 314–39; Guy H. Orcutt et al., Microanalysis of Socioeconomic Systems: A Simulation Study (New York: Harper, 1961); and Robert Weintraub, “The Birth Rate and Economic Development: An Empirical Study,” Econometrica, XL, No.4 (October, 1962). An analysis published subsequent to the preparation of this paper is Morris Silver, “Births, Marriages, and Business Cycles in the United States,” Journal of Political Economy, LXXIII, No.3 (June, 1965), 237–55.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Pennsylvania and National Bureau of Economic Research, Pennsylvania, USA

    Richard A. Easterlin

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  1. Richard A. Easterlin
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Easterlin, R.A. On the relation of economic factors to recent and projected fertility changes. Demography 3, 131–153 (1966). https://doi.org/10.2307/2060068

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