, Volume 37, Issue 1, pp 109–126 | Cite as

Are births underreported in rural China? Manipulation of statistical records in response to China’s population policies

  • M. Giovanna Merli
  • Adrian E. Raftery


Under the current family planning policy in China, the criterion for evaluating all parties involved in the birth planning system provides an incentive for everyone to see that the policy is met, either in reality through strict enforcement of family planning regulations, or statistically through manipulation of statistical records. We investigate underreporting of births in four rural counties of northern China, using data from a 1992 sample survey featuring a reproductive history. To clarify the mechanisms of underreporting, we focus on the ways in which reporting errors may affect the distribution of first births by time since marriage. The results of our investigation suggest that in three of the four counties, first-birth intervals are lengthened by underreporting of girl babies and by replacing them with second births reported as first births.


Family Planning Change Point Birth Interval Female Birth Birth Planning 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


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Copyright information

© Population Association of America 2000

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Demography and EcologyUniversity of Wisconsin-MadisonMadison
  2. 2.Department of Statistics and Department of SociologyUniversity of WashingtonUSA

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