Fertility estimation from open birth-interval data*
- 81 Downloads
Censuses and surveys frequently collect information on period fertility through questions on the timing of last births. The standard approach to estimating fertility with open-interval data uses the proportion of women giving birth in the year before the interview. I propose a more efficient, maximum likelihood method for estimating fertility from open-interval data. I illustrate a mathematical derivation of the new method, perform sensitivity analyses, and conduct empirical tests with Brazilian census data. The new estimators have small biases and lower variance than standard estimators for open-interval data. Consequently, the new method is more likely to generate accurate results from small or moderately sized samples.
KeywordsMaximum Likelihood Estimator Standard Estimator Fertility Estimation Fertility Survey Period Fertility
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
- Baydar, N. and M. White. 1988. “A Method for Analyzing Backward Recurrence Time Data on Residential Mobility.” Pp. 105–35 in Sociological Methodology, edited by C.C. Clogg. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.Google Scholar
- Cox, D, R. 1967. Renewal Theory. London: Methuen.Google Scholar
- Cox, D.R. and P.A.W. Lewis. 1966. The Statistical Analysis of Series of Events. London: Methuen.Google Scholar
- Sheps, M.C. and J.A. Menken. 1973. Mathematical Models of Conception and Birth. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
- — 1970. “Findings and Implications of a Correlation Analysis of the Closed and the Open Birth Intervals.” Demography 5:33–44.Google Scholar
- United Nations. 1992. Handbook of Population and Housing Censuses, Part II: Demographic and Social Characteristics. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, Statistical Office, Studies in Methods, Series F, Number 54. New York: United Nations.Google Scholar
- —. 1996. “Topics on Fertility and Mortality Collected in Population Censuses 1985–1994.” Unpublished manuscript. U.N. Statistical Division and Population Division, New York.Google Scholar
- U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1998. International Data Base. Available on-line at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbacc.html (May 18, 1999).Google Scholar