Advertisement

Demography

, Volume 30, Issue 4, pp 593–606 | Cite as

The contours of demography: Estimates and projections

  • Samuel H. Preston
Happy 30th Birthday

Abstract

This paper considers the scope of demography and the various research approaches that legitimately could claim the label. As a small field lacking security in academic structures, demography has been unusually sensitive to demand factors, including those associated with perceived population problems. International health is cited as an area of increased demographic presence; reasons for this development are explored. The technology for performing research in demography is improving more rapidly than in many other areas of the social sciences, and thus is helping to improve the relative standing of the field. Taking a demand-oriented approach, the paper identifies several promising research areas in which demographers will be called on to address issues of national and international concern.

Keywords

Child Mortality Family Planning Program Marital Fertility Development Review Population Problem 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Bane, M.J. and D. Ellwood. 1986. “Slipping Into and Out of Poverty: The Dynamics of Spells.” Journal of Human Resources 21:1–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Bean, F.D., B.L. Lowell, and L.J. Taylor. 1988. “Undocumented Mexican Immigrants and the Earnings of Other Workers in the United States.” Demography 25:35–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Bongaarts, J. 1983. “The Proximate Determinants of Natural Marital Fertility.” Pp. 103–38 in Determinants ofFertility in Developing Countries, edited by R.A. Bulatao and R.D. Lee. Vol. 1, New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
  4. Bongaarts, J., T. Burch, and K. Wachter. 1987. Family Demography: Methods and Their Application. Oxford: Clarendon.Google Scholar
  5. Brass, W. 1975. Methods for Estimating Fertility and Mortality from Limited and Defective Data. Chapel Hill: Laboratories for Population Statistics, University of North Carolina.Google Scholar
  6. Brass, W. and A.J. Coale. 1968. “Methods of Analysis and Estimation.” Pp. 88–139 in The Demography of Tropical Africa, edited by W. Brass, A.J. Coale, P. Demeny, D.F. Heisel, F. Lorimer, A. Romanink, and E. van de Walle. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  7. Caldwell, John C. 1986. “Routes to Low Mortality in Poor Countries.” Population and Development Review 12:171–220.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. — 1989. “Mass Education as a Determinant of Mortality Decline.” Pp. 103–11 in Selected Readings in Cultural, Social, and Behavioral Determinants of Health, edited by J.C. Caldwell and G. Santow. Canberra: Australian National University Health Transition Centre.Google Scholar
  9. — 1990. “Cultural and Social Factors Influencing Mortality Levels in Developing Countries.” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 510:44–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Caldwell, John and Pat Caldwell. 1986. Limiting Population Growth and the Ford Foundation Contribution. London: Frances Pinter.Google Scholar
  11. Caldwell, John C., P.H. Reddy, and Pat Caldwell. 1988. The Causes of Demographic Change: Experimental Research in South India. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press.Google Scholar
  12. Cleland, J. and J. Hobcraft, eds. 1985. Reproductive Change in Developing Countries: Insights from the World Fertility Survey. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  13. Cleland, J. and J. van Ginneken. 1988. “Maternal Education and Child Survival in Developing Countries: The Search for Pathways of Influence.” Social Science and Medicine 27:1357–68.Google Scholar
  14. Commission on Population Growth and the American Future. 1972. Population and the American Future. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
  15. Davis, K. and J. Blake. 1956. “Social Structure and Fertility: An Analytic Framework.” Economic Development and Cultural Change 4:211–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Freedman, R. 1990. “Family Planning Programs in the Third World.” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 510:33–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Geronimus, A.T. and S.D. Korenman. 1992. “The Socioeconomic Consequences of Childbearing Reconsidered.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 107:1187–1214.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Hauser, P. and O.D. Duncan. 1959. The Study of Population. Chicago: Chicago University Press.Google Scholar
  19. Himes, Christine and Clifford Clogg. 1992. “An Overview of Demographic Analysis as a Method for Evaluating Census Coverage in the United States.” Population Index 58(4):587–607.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Hodgson, D. 1988. “Orthodoxy and Revisionism in American Demography.” Population and Development Review 14(4):541–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Hoffman, S.D., M. Foster, and F.F. Furstenberg. 1993. “Re-Evaluating the Costs of Teenage Childbearing.” Demography 30:1–14.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. John, M. 1990. “Transmission and Control of Childhood Infectious Diseases: Does Demography Matter?” Population Studies 44:195–216.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Knodel, J., N. Chayovan, and S. Siriboon. 1992. “The Impact of Fertility Decline on Familial Support for the Elderly: An Illustration from Thailand.” Population and Development Review 18:79–104.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Lee, Ronald. Forthcoming. “The Formal Demography of Population Aging, Transfers, and the Economic Life Cycle.” In The Demography of Aging, edited by Linda Martin and Samuel Preston. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.Google Scholar
  25. Lee, Ronald and Shelley Lapkoff. 1988. “Intergenerational Flows of Time and Goods: Consequences of Slowing Population Growth.” Journal of Political Economy 96(3):618–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Lesthaeghe, R. and J. Surkyn. 1988. “Cultural Dynamics and Economic Theories of Fertility Change.” Population and Development Review 14(1):1–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Lieberson, S. and M. Waters. 1988. From Many Strands: Ethnic and Racial Groups in Contemporary America. New York: Russell Sage.Google Scholar
  28. Lorimer, Frank. 1954. Culture and Human Fertility: A Study of the Relation of Cultural Conditions to Fertility in Non-Industrial and Transitional Societies. Paris: United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural OrganizationGoogle Scholar
  29. Manton, K. and E. Stallard. Forthcoming. “Medical Demography.” In The Demography of Aging, edited by L. Martin and S. Preston. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.Google Scholar
  30. Massey, D. 1990. “The Social and Economic Origins of Immigration.” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 510:60–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Massey, D., R. Alarcón, J. Durand, and H. González. 1987. Return to Aztldn: The Social Process of International Migration from Western Mexico. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
  32. Massey, D. and N. Denton. 1993. American Apartheid. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
  33. McDonald, Peter. 1988. “Families in the Future: The Pursuit of Personal Antonomy.” Family Matters 22:1–21.Google Scholar
  34. McNicoll, G. 1980. “Institutional Determinants of Fertility Change.” Population and Development Review 6:441–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. — 1992. “The Agenda of Population Studies: A Commentary and Complaint.” Population and Development Review 18(3):399–420.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Mosley, W.H. and S. Becker. 1991. “Demographic Models for Child Survival and Implications for Health Intervention Programs.” Health Policy and Planning 6:218–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Namboodiri, K. 1988. “Ecological Demography: Its Place in Sociology.” American Sociological Review 53:619–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. National Research Council, 1989. A Common Destiny: Blacks and American Society. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.Google Scholar
  39. Pollak, R. and S. Watkins. Forthcoming. “Cultural and Economic Approaches to Fertility: A Proper Marriage or a Mésalliance?” Population and Development Review.Google Scholar
  40. Popenoe, D. 1988. Disturbing the Nest: Family Change and Decline in Modern Societies. New York: Aldine.Google Scholar
  41. Potter, R.G. and M.P. Parker. 1964. “Predicting the Time Required to Conceive.” Population Studies 18:99–116.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Rindfuss, Ronald. 1991. “The Young Adult Years: Diversity, Structural Change, and Fertility,” Demography 28:493–512.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Robinson, J.G., B; Ahmed, P. Das Gupta, and K. Woodrow. Forthcoming. “Estimation of Population Coverage in the 1990 United States Census Based on Demographic Analysis.” Journal of the American Statistical Association.Google Scholar
  44. Rogers, R.G. 1992. “Living and Dying in the U.S.A.: Sociodemographic Determinants of Death among Blacks and Whites.” Demography 29:287–304.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Rogot, E., P.D. Sorlie, N.J. Johnson, and C. Schmitt. 1992. A Mortality Study of 1.3 Million Persons by Demographic, Social, and Economic Factors: 1979-1985 Follow-Up. National Institutes of Health Publication 92–3297. Bethesda, MD: National Institutes of Health.Google Scholar
  46. Royal Society of London and the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. 1992. Population Growth, Resource Consumption, and a Sustainable World. London and Washington: Royal Society of London and U.S. National Academy of Sciences.Google Scholar
  47. Sen, A.K. 1984. Resources, Values, and Development. London: Blackwell.Google Scholar
  48. Sheps, M.C. and J. Menken. 1973. Mathematical Models of Conception and Birth. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
  49. Smeeding, T., B.B. Torrey, and M. Rein. 1988. “Patterns of Income and Poverty: The Economic Status of Children and the Elderly in Eight Countries.” Pp 89–119 in The Vulnerable, edited by J.J. Palmer, T. Smeeding, and B.B. Torrey. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute Press.Google Scholar
  50. Smith, H.L. 1989. “Integrating Theory and Research on the Institutional Determinants of Fertility.” Demography 26: 171–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Sobel, Michael and Gerhard Arminger. 1992. “Modelling Household Fertility Decisions: A Nonlinear Simultaneous Probit Model.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 87(417):38–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Thompson, G.P. 1985. “The Environmental Movement Goes to Business School.” Environment 27(4):7–11.Google Scholar
  53. Torrey, B.B. and C. Jolly. Forthcoming. Population Change and Land Use in Developing Countries. Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences Press.Google Scholar
  54. Trussell, J. and S. Preston. 1982. “Estimating the Covariates of Childhood Mortality from Retrospective Reports of Mothers.” Health Policy and Education 3:1–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance Trust Fund. 1992. 1992 Annual Report. 102d Congress, 2d Session House Document 102–279. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
  56. Union of Concerned Scientists. 1992. “World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity.” Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists.Google Scholar
  57. United Nations. 1985. Socioeconomic Differentials in Child Mortality in Developing Countries. United Nations Population Study 97. New York: United Nations.Google Scholar
  58. University of Chicago. 1993. “Dinner Honors Gary Becker Following Nobel Ceremony.” University of Chicago Chronicle 12(9):4.Google Scholar
  59. World Bank. Forthcoming. Health Sector Priorities in Developing Countries. Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Population Association of America 1993

Authors and Affiliations

  • Samuel H. Preston
    • 1
  1. 1.Population Studies CenterUniversity of PennsylvaniaPhiladalphia

Personalised recommendations