, Volume 32, Issue 4, pp 543–555

Aggregate population and economic growth correlations: The role of the components of demographic change

  • Allen C. Kelley
  • Robert M. Schmidt
Economic Demography


The results of recent correlations showing a negative impact of population growth on economic development in cross-country data for the 1980s, versus “nonsignificant” correlations widely found for the 1960s and 1970s, are examined with contemporaneous and lagged components of demographic change, convergence-type economic modeling, and several statistical frameworks. The separate impacts of births and deaths are found to be notable but offsetting in the earlier periods. In contrast, the short-run costs (benefits) of births (mortality reduction) increase (decrease) significantly in the 1980s, and the favorable labor-force impacts of past births are not fully offsetting.


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Copyright information

© Population Association of America 1995

Authors and Affiliations

  • Allen C. Kelley
    • 1
  • Robert M. Schmidt
    • 2
  1. 1.Department of Economics and Center for Demographic StudiesDuke UniversityDurham
  2. 2.E. Claiborne Robins School of BusinessUniversity of RichmondRichmond

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