, Volume 21, Issue 2, pp 217–233 | Cite as

Mortality estimation from registered deaths in less developed countries

  • Neil G. Bennett
  • Shiro Horiuchi


Age-specific population growth rates were introduced to demographic analysis in earlier work by Bennett and Horiuchi (1981) and Preston and Coale (1982). In this paper, we derive a method which uses these growth rates to transform what may be a set of incompletely recorded deaths by age into a life table that accurately reflects the true mortality experience of the population under study. The method does not rely on the assumption of stability and, for example, in contrast to intercensal cohort survival techniques, is simple to implement when presented with nontraditional intercensal interval lengths. Thus we can obtain mortality estimates for less developed countries with defective data, despite departures from stability. Further, we assess the sensitivity of the method to violations in various assumptions underlying the procedure: error in estimated growth rates, existence of non-zero net intercensal migration, age dependence in the completeness of death registration, and misreporting of age at death and age in the population. We demonstrate the use of the method in an application to data referring to Argentine females during the period 1960 to 1970.


Life Table Death Registration Model Life Table Estimate Growth Rate Census Enumeration 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. Bennett, Neil G. 1981. Estimation Techniques Derived from Structural Relations in Destabilized Populations. Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, Princeton University. Ann Arbor, Michigan: University Microfilms.Google Scholar
  2. — and Shiro Horiuchi. 1981. Estimating the Completeness of Death Registration in a Closed Population. Population Index 47:207–221.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Coale, Ansley J. and Paul Demeny. 1967. Manual IV. Methods of Estimating Basic Demographic Measures from Incomplete Data. New York: United Nations.Google Scholar
  4. - and Paul Demeny. 1983. Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations. Second Edition. New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
  5. Hill, Kenneth, Hania Zlotnik, and James Trussell. 1983. Manual X. Indirect Techniques for Demographic Estimation. New York: United Nations.Google Scholar
  6. Horiuchi, Shiro and Ansley J. Coale. 1982. A Simple Equation for Estimating the Expectation of Life at Old Ages. Population Studies 36:317–326.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Palloni, Alberto and Robert Kominski. 1981. Estimation of Adult Mortality Using Forward and Backward Projections. Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin. Unpublished manuscript.Google Scholar
  8. Preston, Samuel H. 1983. An Integrated System for Demographic Estimation from Two Censuses. Demography 20:213–226.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. — and Neil G. Bennett. 1983. A Census-based Method for Estimating Adult Mortality. Population Studies 37(1):91–104.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. — and Ansley J. Coale. 1982. Age Structure, Growth, Attrition, and Accession: A New Synthesis. Population Index 48:217–259.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. —, Ansley J. Coale, James Trussell, and Maxine Weinstein. 1980. Estimating the Completeness of Reporting of Adult Deaths in Populations that are Approximately Stable. Population Index 46:179–202.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Rogers, Andrei and Luis J. Castro. 1981. Model Migration Schedules. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.Google Scholar
  13. United Nations. 1982a. Levels and Trends of Mortality since 1950. New York: United Nations.Google Scholar
  14. — 1982b. Model Life Tables for Developing Countries. New York: United Nations.Google Scholar
  15. Vincent, Paul. 1951. La Mortalité des Vieillards. Population 6:182–204.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Population Association of America 1984

Authors and Affiliations

  • Neil G. Bennett
    • 1
  • Shiro Horiuchi
    • 2
  1. 1.Department of SociologyYale UniversityNew Haven
  2. 2.Population DivisionThe United NationsNew York

Personalised recommendations