Demography

, Volume 7, Issue 1, pp 87–91 | Cite as

Improving population estimates with the use of dummy variables

  • Donald E. Pursell
Article

Abstracta

The ratio correlation method of estimating county population may be improved with the use of dummy variables and stratification to represent county “type.” Unsatisfactory results were derived when the ratio correlation technique was applied to West Virginia counties using only such conventional symptomatic indicators as births, deaths, non-agricultural employment, and automobile registrations, probably due to the relatively unique absolute population decrease 1950–1960 that occurred in many counties. To improve the predictive power of the technique: counties were stratified along the lines recently suggested by Rosenberg; dummy variables were introduced to represent such county characteristics as region or rate of development; and stratification and dummy variables were combined in a single test. The average 1960 estimating error for the 55 counties was reduced from 4.6 to 2.3 percent when dummy variables and stratification were used to supplement the conventional indicators.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Goldberg, David, V. R. Rao, and N. K. Nam-boodiri. 1964. A test of the accuracy of the ratio correlation population estimates. Land Economics 40:100–102.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Goldberger, Arthur S. 1964. Econometric Theory. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
  3. Pursell, Donald E., and Gilbert L. Rutman. 1969. Selected Demographic Aspects of the West Virginia Economy 1950–1975. Morgantown: Bureau of Business Research, West Virginia University.Google Scholar
  4. Rosenberg, Harry. 1968. Improving current population estimates through stratification. Land Economics 44:331–338.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Schmitt, Robert C., and Albert H. Crosetti. 1954. Accuracy of the ratio correlation method for estimating postcensal population. Land Economics 30:279–281.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Suits, Daniel B. 1957. Use of dummy variables in regression equations. Journal of the American Statistical Association 52:548–551.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Population Association of America 1970

Authors and Affiliations

  • Donald E. Pursell
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Economics and Ragional Research InstituteWest Virginia UniversityMorgantown

Personalised recommendations