Abstract
The analysis of gene expression temporal profiles is a topic of increasing interest in functional genomics. Modelbased clustering methods are particularly interesting because they are able to capture the dynamic nature of these data and to identify the optimal number of clusters. We have defined a new Bayesian method that allows us to cope with some important issues that remain unsolved in the currently available approaches: the presence of time dislocations in gene expression, the nonstationarity of the processes generating the data, and the presence of data collected on an irregular temporal grid. Our method, which is based on random walk models, requires only mild a priori assumptions about the nature of the processes generating the data and explicitly models intergene variability within each cluster. It has first been validated on simulated datasets and then employed for the analysis of a dataset relative to serumstimulated fibroblasts. In all cases, the results have been promising, showing that the method can be helpful in functional genomics research.
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Acknowledgements
This work was in part supported by the Progetto di Ricerca di Interesse Nazionale (PRIN) 2003 grant ‘Dynamic modelling of gene expression profiles’ from the Italian Ministry of Education.
The authors have no conflicts of interest that are directly relevant to the content of this article.
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Appendices
Appendices
Appendix A: Conditional Maximisation
The conditional maximisation method consists of the following steps.

1.
Provide an initial estimate for the model parameters θ (a possible choice is to take the mean value of the prior distributions);

2.
define an update order of parameter estimates;

3.
for each parameter, update the estimate by maximising the marginal posterior distribution given the data and the current estimate of the other parameters;

4.
repeat step 3 until convergence.
Convergence is reached when, for each parameter, the relative difference between the new and the old estimate becomes smaller than a fixed tolerance. Convergence of the conditional maximisation algorithm is very quick, almost regardless of the parameters’ order and of their initial estimates. In the following, we apply the conditional maximisation method to the estimation of the cluster parameters (see subsection titled Cluster Parameters Estimation).
The marginal densities to be maximised are proportional to the joint posterior distribution (equation 15). In fact, considering for example ω̅, it is possible to write (equation 20): where the denominator is a constant, once σ^{−2}, λ^{−2} and y are known.
Substituting in equation 15, the distributions (equation 16) and (equation 18), we obtain (equation 21): Therefore, in the maximisation step it is possible to consider only the terms in equation 21 that depend on the parameter to be estimated.
Estimate of ω̅
If we consider only the terms in equation 21 that contain ω̅, then we have (equation 22): Such distribution is a multivariate normal. In fact, we can write (equation 23): where (equation 24): and (equation 25)
The MAP estimate of ω̅ is therefore (equation 26)
Estimate of σ^{−2}
It is possible to repeat the steps followed for ω̅, thus finding (equation 27)
This is a Gamma distribution with parameters (equation 28): and (equation 29)
The MAP estimate of σ^{−2} is (equation 30)
Estimate of λ^{−2}
Following the same steps as for the other two parameters, we have (equation 31)
This is another Gamma distribution with parameters (equation 32): and (equation 33)
In this case, the MAP estimate for λ^{−2} is (equation 34)
Appendix B: Pseudocode for Algorithm
The pseudocode of the algorithm is given in figure A1.
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Ferrazzi, F., Magni, P. & Bellazzi, R. Random Walk Models for Bayesian Clustering of Gene Expression Profiles. ApplBioinformatics 4, 263–276 (2005). https://doi.org/10.2165/0082294220050404000006
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Keywords
 Cluster Model
 Bayesian Cluster
 Random Walk Model
 Random Walk Process
 Virtual Grid