Abstract
This paper proposes a risk assessment approach for a tension leg platform (TLP), named hybrid fuzzy-statistical process control (SPC) model, which provides more precise estimation than other commonly used methods. The hybrid fuzzy-SPC model is designed to follow risk source identification and establishment of risk index groups. It has three components: fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and SPC theory. In comparison to applying only one of the three, the hybrid fuzzy-SPC model usually results in reduction in uncertainties and subjectivities. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the AHP are used to obtain several independent risk evaluation scheme results. Then, based on the SPC theory, a practitioner is able to derive a confidence interval using the central limit theorem. This will largely mitigate risks and enable preventive action before a platform loses floating attitude.
中文概要
目的:张力腿平台在海上服役时由于振动和系泊问题有 漂浮姿态丧失的风险。平台漂浮姿态丧失后会影 响作业稳定性和服役安全性。本文旨在对平台漂 浮姿态丧失进行风险分析,评估总体的风险等 级,识别最具威胁的风险因素,提前采取有效措 施,并及时向设计、建造和运营提供反馈意见, 保证平台运行安全。
创新点:1. 在模糊理论的基础上融合统计过程控制理论和 层次分析法,形成模糊统计过程控制评估模型; 2. 建立适用于评估目标的风险评估指标体系,并 作为参数输入该风险评估模型,最终获得风险置 信区间。
方法:1. 识别影响漂浮姿态的风险因素并归纳分解,建 立风险评估指标体系,并将其作为模糊统计过程 控制评估模型的输入参数;2. 将应用模糊理论和 层次分析法得到的单一独立评价方案的风险结 果视为风险的总体随机样本,并利用中心极限定 理对风险评估结果进行置信度评价,以获得最终 的风险置信区间。
结论:1. 三种方法的融合使得不确定性和主观性对风险 评估的影响大幅减少,结果好于单独用其中任何 一种评估方法。2. 风险评价指标体系是柔性的, 需要随着实际情况做出适当的调整。3. 独立风险 评价方案的数量依赖于项目的需求,高精度的评 估结果需要大量的独立评价方案做底层支撑;独 立评价方案的数量不能小于10。4. 风险评价指标 体系可以不同,但是风险评估方法具有普适性。
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alwan LC, Roberts HV, 1988. Time-series modeling for statistical process control. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 6(2):87–95. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.1988.10509640
Benassai G, Campanile A, Piscopo V, et al., 2014. Ultimate and accidental limit state design for mooring systems of floating offshore wind turbines. Ocean Engineering, 92:64–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2014.09.036
Carr V, Tah JHM, 2001. A fuzzy approach to construction project risk assessment and analysis: construction project risk management system. Advances in Engineering Software, 32(10-11):847–857. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0965-9978(01)00036-9
CCS (China Classification Society), OCIMF (Oil Companies International Marine Forum), 2015. Effective Mooring, 3rd Edition. CCS and OCIMF.
Chatjigeorgiou IK, Mavrakos SA, 2002. An investigation of the non-linear transverse vibrations of parametrically excited vertical marine risers and cables under tension. Proceedings of the ASME 21st International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, p.347–358. https://doi.org/10.1115/OMAE2002-28170
Chen JF, Hsieh HN, Do QH, 2015. Evaluating teaching performance based on fuzzy AHP and comprehensive evaluation approach. Applied Soft Computing, 28:100–108. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2014.11.050
Chen JJ, Zhou L, 2014. Risks and inspection of FPSO single point mooring system. Petroleum Engineering Construction, 40(2):24–28 (in Chinese). https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-2206.2014.04.006
Coelho DK, Roisenberg M, de Freitas Filho PJ, et al., 2005. Risk assessment of drilling and completion operations in petroleum wells using a Monte Carlo and a neural network approach. Proceedings of the 37th Conference on Winter Simulation, p.1892–1897. https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2005.1574466
Dean RG, Dalrymple RA, 1991. Water Wave Mechanics for Engineers and Scientists. World Scientific, Singapore, p.96–98.
Fattahi R, Khalilzadeh M, 2018. Risk evaluation using a novel hybrid method based on FMEA, extended MULTIMOORA, and AHP methods under fuzzy environment. Safety Science, 102:290–300. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2017.10.018
Flocard F, Finnigan TD, 2010. Laboratory experiments on the power capture of pitching vertical cylinders in waves. Ocean Engineering, 37(11-12):989-997. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2010.03.011
Hu Y, Hu ZJ, Liu YD, et al., 2012. Analysis of the large LNG ships moored against a quay based on AQWA. Ship Science and Technology, 34(2):70–73 (in Chinese). https://doi.org/10.3404/j.issn.1672-7649.2012.02.014
ISO (International Organization for Standardization), 2009a. Risk Management—Principles and Guidelines, ISO 31000:2009. ISO.
ISO (International Organization for Standardization), 2009b. Risk Management—Risk Assessment Techniques, ISO/IEC 31010:2009. ISO.
Jin YL, Jang BS, 2015. Probabilistic fire risk analysis and structural safety assessment of FPSO topside module. Ocean Engineering, 104:725–737. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2015.04.019
Jing Y, 2007. The comparison of two different mooring systems. Shipbuilding of China, 48(S1):660–664 (in Chinese).
Kurian VJ, Gasim MA, Narayan SP, et al., 2008. Parametric study of TLPs subjected to random waves. Proceedings of International Conference on Construction and Building Technology, p.213–222.
Liu JL, 2013. Study on Risk Analysis of Large Engineering Project Method Based on Fuzzy Statistical Decision Theory. PhD Thesis, Jilin University, Changchun, China (in Chinese).
Liu JL, Li QX, Wang YH, 2013. Risk analysis in ultra deep scientific drilling project—a fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach. International Journal of Project Management, 31(2):449–458. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2012.09.015
MacGregor JF, Kourti T, 1995. Statistical process control of multivariate processes. Control Engineering Practice, 3(2):403–414. https://doi.org/10.1016/0967-0661(95)00014-l
Mentes A, Helvacioglu IH, 2011. An application of fuzzy fault tree analysis for spread mooring systems. Ocean Engineering, 38(2-3):285-294. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2010.11.003
Montgomery DC, 2009. Introduction to Statistical Quality Control, 6th Edition. Wiley, New York, USA.
Nieto-Morote A, Ruz-Vila F, 2011. A fuzzy approach to construction project risk assessment. International Journal of Project Management, 29(2):220–231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2010.02.002
Osborn RW, Millwater HR, 2005. Application of probabilistic sensitivities in probabilistic fatigue analysis of gas turbine engine disks. Proceedings of the 46th AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics & Materials Conference, Article No. 2147.
Saaty TL, 1980. The Analytic Hierarchy Process: Planning, Priority Setting, Resource Allocation. McGraw-Hill, New York, USA.
Saaty TL, Vargas LG, 2006. Decision Making with the Analytic Network Process: Economic, Political, Social and Technological Applications with Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks. Springer, Boston, USA. https://doi.org/10.1007/0-387-33987-6
Sadiq R, Husain T, Veitch B, et al., 2004. Risk-based decision-making for drilling waste discharges using a fuzzy synthetic evaluation technique. Ocean Engineering, 31(16): 1929–1953. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2004.05.001
Simos AM, Pesce CP, 1997. Mathieu stability in the dynamics of TLP’s tethers considering variable tension along the length. In: Carneiro FLLB, Ferrante AJ, Batista RC, et al. (Eds.), Offshore Engineering. WIT Press, Ashurst, UK.
Sohn H, Czarnecki JA, Farrar CR, 2000. Structural health monitoring using statistical process control. Journal of Structural Engineering, 126(2):1356–1363. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)0733-9445(2000)126:11(1356)
Taroun A, Yang JB, Lowe D, 2011. Construction risk modelling and assessment: insights from a literature review. The Built & Human Environment Review, 4(S1): 87–97.
Teng SZ, Feng JH, 2005. Mathematical Statistics, 4th Edition. Dalian University of Technology Press, Dalian, China, p.81–99 (in Chinese).
Wang Y, Li Y, Liu W, et al., 2015. Assessing operational ocean observing equipment (OOOE) based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Ocean Engineering, 107:54–59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2015.07.032
Wang YL, Chen M, Ji ZS, et al., 2007. The evaluation criteria system and evaluation method for self elevating drilling unit. Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University, 41(9): 1445–1448 (in Chinese). https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:1006-2467.2007.09.012
Wang YL, Ji ZS, Lin Y, 2010. The advanced grade evaluation of self-elevating drilling unit. Journal of Shanghai Jiao-tong University, 44(2):755–757 (in Chinese). https://doi.org/10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2010.06.008
Wu H, Lin Y, Ye C, et al., 2017. Simplified algorithm of evaporation rate for 1.5 m3 independent and C-type LNG storage tank. Journal of Dalian University of Technology, 57(2):37–45 (in Chinese). https://doi.org/10.7511/dllgxb201701006
Xu YL, Yeung JFY, Chan APC, et al., 2010. Developing a risk assessment model for PPP projects in China—a fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach. Automation in Construction, 19(2):929–943. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2010.06.006
Yan GW, Ou JP, 2010. Dynamic response analysis on different types of TLPs. Proceedings of the ASME 29th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering, p.161–168. https://doi.org/10.1115/OMAE2010-20173
Yang G, Zhang JY, Wang N, et al., 2015. Introduction of the risk assessment of in-service soft yoke mooring system. Science and Technology Innovation Herald, 12(2):242–245 (in Chinese). https://doi.org/10.16660/j.cnki.1674-098x.2015.06.049
Yang ZL, Wang J, 2015. Use of fuzzy risk assessment in FMEA of offshore engineering systems. Ocean Engineering, 95:195–204. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2014.11.037
Zeng JH, An M, Smith NJ, 2007. Application of a fuzzy based decision making methodology to construction project risk assessment. International Journal of Project Management, 25(2):589–600. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2007.02.006
Zhang Y, 2011. Research on Buckling Assessment Method of Hull Structure with Corrosion Damnification. PhD Thesis, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, China (in Chinese).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Contributors
Hao WU wrote the first draft of the manuscript. Hao WU and Yan LIN revised and edited the final version.
Conflict of interest
Hao WU and Yan LIN declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Wu, H., Lin, Y. Risk assessment for a floating attitude tension leg platform by application of a hybrid fuzzy-statistical process control model. J. Zhejiang Univ. Sci. A 20, 515–532 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1631/jzus.A1900052
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1631/jzus.A1900052
Keywords
- Tension leg platform (TLP)
- Risk assessment
- Floating attitude
- Hybrid model
- Fuzzy-statistical process control (SPC)