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Nonparametric modeling on random uncertainty and reliability analysis of a dual-span rotor

双跨转子的随机不确定性非参数建模与可靠性分析

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Abstract

A general procedure is proposed to estimate the reliability of a dual-span rotor based on nonparametric modeling on random uncertainty. First, the vibration equation of the rotor with random uncertainty is constructed based on random matrices through the nonparametric modeling approach. Second, the reliability estimation is then performed by response spectral analysis and the moment method. By making full use of the advantages of nonparametric method and response spectral analysis, not only is the requirement on probability density function (PDF) avoided, but also the first and second moments are no longer needed to be estimated or assumed for calculating the reliability. Finally, the statistical index Z*-value based on short-term predictability is introduced to investigate the influence of random uncertainties on the reliability of the dual-span rotor. Illustrating examples show that the results obtained from the proposed procedure are consistent with those from short-term predictability, such that dangerous ranges can be well identified during the start-up process of the rotor.

中文概要

目的

旋转机械由于工作环境复杂,在运行过程中会不 可避免地受到各种不确定性因素的影响,从而引 发转子系统的异常振动。因此,迫切需要对系统 工作状态开展可靠性分析。本文将外部扰动不确 定性与模型不确定性考虑在内,旨在建立转子系 统运行状态的可靠性评估指标,丰富转子动力学 理论体系,为工程应用提供参考。

创新点

1. 采用非参数法进行建模,能够将外部扰动不确 定性与模型不确定性同时包含在内;2. 在非参数 建模基础上,结合响应谱分析法进行可靠性计 算,可避免对系统先验知识的需求并降低计算过程的复杂性;3. 将短周期预测理论扩展应用于可靠性分析验证。

方法

1. 借助非参数法建立转子系统的随机不确定性模 型;2. 结合响应谱分析法推导出系统可靠性指标 计算式;3. 采用短周期预测方法对模拟数据统计 指标进行计算与验证。

结论

1. 本方法可用于评估大型复杂旋转机械系统的可 靠性,尤其对于服役时间较长导致系统参数出现 不确定性变化的情形;2. 本研究结果可为大型复 杂旋转机械的设计、运行和控制提供理论基础, 同时也可以为其他类型机械设备的可靠性分析 和预测方法提供参考。

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Fluid Power and Mechatronic Systems, College of Mechanical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027, China

    Chun-biao Gan, Yue-hua Wang & Shi-xi Yang

  2. Key Laboratory of Advanced Manufacturing Technology of Zhejiang Province, College of Mechanical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027, China

    Chun-biao Gan, Yue-hua Wang & Shi-xi Yang

Authors
  1. Chun-biao Gan
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  2. Yue-hua Wang
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  3. Shi-xi Yang
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Correspondence to Chun-biao Gan.

Additional information

Project supported by the Science Fund for Creative Research Groups of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51521064) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 11172260, 11372270, and 51375434)

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Gan, Cb., Wang, Yh. & Yang, Sx. Nonparametric modeling on random uncertainty and reliability analysis of a dual-span rotor. J. Zhejiang Univ. Sci. A 19, 189–202 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1631/jzus.A1600340

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1631/jzus.A1600340

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