The deployment of sustainable technologies has been a driving force in shaping the modern world. The US Department of Energy (DOE) plays a crucial role in advancing clean energy technologies and supporting national industrial objectives. The Biden administration aims to achieve 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035 and ensure net-zero emissions by 2050. To reach these targets, the power sector must rapidly transition from fossil fuels to cleaner energy sources such as solar, wind, and nuclear power. Simultaneously, it requires vast expansion to accommodate the growing need for electricity. This sector is a significant contributor to US domestic emissions, emphasizing the critical importance of decarbonization.

The DOE’s “Pathways to Commercial Liftoff” initiative offers critical insights for public and private sector investors regarding the timing and feasibility of sustainable technologies reaching full-scale commercialization, as provided in reports. These reports encompass advanced nuclear, carbon management, clean hydrogen, and long-duration energy-storage (LDES) technologies chosen for their critical functions in the clean energy transition. Although these technologies are essential, they face commercialization challenges that require combined efforts and investments from the public and private sectors. The Liftoff Reports aim to foster dialogue with the private sector, and the DOE actively seeks ongoing feedback as the department continually refines and updates these reports. Drawing from extensive stakeholder engagement, project-level financial analysis, and system-level modeling, these reports offer valuable insights into recurring themes and interactions among these sustainable technologies.

Advanced nuclear

Nuclear energy stands as a critical pillar in the pursuit of a clean energy future. It offers carbon-free electricity generation, bolsters the reliability of the power grid alongside renewables, demands minimal land usage, and imposes lower transmission requirements. The power system decarbonization modeling indicates that the United States will require 550–770 GW of additional clean, firm capacity to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. The nuclear capacity can potentially grow considerably, from approximately 100 GW in 2023 to around 300 GW by 2050, due to advanced nuclear technologies.

The nuclear industry presents substantial regional economic advantages and promotes an equitable transition toward a net-zero grid. Moreover, it possesses an array of applications that facilitate grid flexibility and decarbonization beyond electricity production. Advanced nuclear technologies encompass both Generation III+ (Gen III+) and Generation IV (Gen IV) reactors, along with various size categories, including microreactors (50 MW or less), small modular reactors (~50–300 MW), and large reactors (~1 GW).

Despite its potential, this industry faces a commercial stalemate, as concerns over cost overruns and project abandonment have deterred investments and commitments from potential customers. Cost considerations are crucial in nuclear deployment. Advanced nuclear overnight capital costs may require approximately USD$3,600 per kW to achieve cost-competitiveness. This cost reduction is achievable through a combination of factors such as learning by doing, standardization, and modularization.

While the initial costs of nuclear projects can be substantial, scaling nuclear power through repeat deployments is expected to yield significant cost reductions. Lower land use is another advantage, addressing land-cost challenges in specific regions. From an economic perspective, nuclear power significantly generates more jobs per GW than wind power. It offers higher wages—the transition from coal to nuclear presents opportunities for expanding and preserving high-paying jobs in local communities. To realize the potential of nuclear power and achieve decarbonization goals, substantial investments, workforce development, and scaling up of fuel-fabrication facilities will be required. The estimated cost of deploying approximately 200 GW of the US nuclear capacity by 2050 is roughly $700 billion.

Carbon management

Carbon capture and removal technologies can potentially eliminate significant CO2 emissions annually, contributing to climate change mitigation. These technologies are part of the carbon management value chain, consisting of CO2 capture (from different sources), transportation, and storage or utilization. To achieve the energy transition targets, studies suggest capturing and storing 400–1800 million tons of CO2 annually by 2050, necessitating substantial investment. Presently, the United States has over 20 million tons per annum (MTPA) of carbon capture capacity, a fraction of what could be required by 2050, presenting a financial venture of up to $100 billion by 2030 and $600 billion by 2050.

The US leads globally in carbon management due to its favorable policy environment, such as the 45Q tax credit, a federal tax credit meant to encourage investment in capturing and storing atmospheric CO2. Other policies include current climate and infrastructure legislation providing approximately $12 billion in funding. The country possesses excellent geology for CO2 storage and ample, low-cost clean energy resources, which can power carbon dioxide removal projects. Investors are already interested in large-scale carbon management projects, attracted by enhanced tax credits and the potential for financial returns. Two pathways exist for scaling carbon management: near-term opportunities, which focus on industries with high-purity CO2 streams like ethanol and hydrogen, and longer-term prospects, which require cost reductions and policy support.

The United States has ample storage resources, with saline aquifers being the preferred choice due to public and investor acceptance. Although CO2 transportation through pipelines is critical for carbon management, alternative methods such as rail and shipping are essential in regions where pipeline installation is impractical. Implementing carbon management technologies can add substantial economic value and generate millions of jobs, particularly in construction and skilled trades. However, challenges include workforce shortages and community concerns, necessitating stakeholder engagement and collaboration. Challenges facing widespread carbon management deployment include the need for multiparty agreements, permitting, and transport and storage infrastructure. Federal programs, like the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), address these challenges by providing funding, enabling support, and infrastructure development.

The United States is a favorable market for carbon management investment. Overcoming economic, commercial, and execution-related hurdles requires concerted public and private efforts supported by policy incentives, standardized commercial arrangements, and community engagement initiatives.

Clean hydrogen

The United States is witnessing an emerging clean hydrogen market, projected to reach $80–150 billion by 2050, offering significant opportunities for growth. The primary sectors driving this expansion are industrial applications, medium- and heavy-duty road transport, and liquid fuels produced using hydrogen as a source material.

The US Government’s commitment to the clean energy economy is set to accelerate this growth. Hydrogen can reduce up to 25% of global energy-related CO2 emissions, focusing on industrial and chemical applications and heavy-duty transportation sectors. With the support of the Inflation Reduction Act along with the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, clean hydrogen could become economically viable with existing technologies within 3–5 years for countless applications. The key to achieving commercial liftoff for clean hydrogen is transitioning existing end users from carbon-intensive hydrogen production to cleaner alternatives. Water electrolysis, for instance, would require up to 200 GW of new renewable energy by 2030 to support clean hydrogen production. In alignment with the DOE National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap, the United States could reach 50 million metric tons per annum (MMTPA) of clean hydrogen production by 2050.

To scale the market, addressing demand-side challenges is crucial. Expanding midstream infrastructure would significantly reduce hydrogen delivery costs outside production sites, making projects more attractive and accelerating clean hydrogen adoption. Boosting demand and establishing long-term offtake agreements will encourage the proliferation of hydrogen production projects and facilitate final investment decisions. Commercial “liftoff” for clean hydrogen will likely occur in three phases:

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    Near-term expansion (2023–2026): Clean hydrogen will replace carbon-intensive hydrogen primarily in the industrial and chemical sectors. First-of-a-kind projects will emerge, driven by substantial DOE funding for Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs.

  2. 2.

    Industrial scaling (2027–2034): Hydrogen production costs will decline, and privately funded infrastructure projects will expand. Fuel cells or hydrogen combustion for power may be required to attain clean power goals.

  3. 3.

    Long-term growth (2035+): A self-sustaining market will rely on cost declines, accessibility of low-cost clean electricity, dependable hydrogen storage, equipment cost reductions, and efficient distribution infrastructure.

Overcoming commercialization challenges is necessary for each growth phase. This includes addressing midstream infrastructure costs, and reluctance regarding price and performance at scale. Investment in supply chain development, domestic electrolyzer manufacturing, and raw materials is essential. Regulatory frameworks and standardization of processes and systems are needed to drive industrywide adoption.

Long-duration energy storage

LDES is poised to play a pivotal role in the US transition to a decarbonized energy system. LDES technologies offer a solution to complement the expansion of intermittent renewables while enhancing local and regional grid resilience and lowering the costs and risks related to grid expansion. Realizing this vision requires a variety of interventions that account for regional variations in market support, physical resources, and infrastructure. LDES encompasses different technologies united by their shared goal of storing energy for extended periods for future use. These technologies differ in the form of energy they hold and release, along with the duration of dispatch. This report concentrates on LDES systems applied for electricity purposes.

To assess the commercial viability of LDES in the United States, this effort combines extensive research and modeling of a decarbonization pathway for the US power sector. The modeling scenarios serve three main objectives:

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    Estimating a business-as-usual trajectory, considering current trends and policies.

  2. 2.

    Forecasting the least-cost pathways to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 under various constraints.

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    Exploring the potential of different LDES technologies and their conditions for adoption.

Based on this analysis, the US grid may require 225–460 GW of LDES capacity for power market applications to achieve a net-zero economy by 2050, representing a cumulative capital investment of approximately $330 billion. Despite the substantial upfront costs, deploying LDES in net-zero pathways could generate annualized savings of $10–20 billion in operating expenses and avoided capital expenditures by 2050 compared to scenarios without LDES. Several vital improvements are necessary to facilitate LDES technology “liftoff” by 2030, when it becomes self-sustaining and attractive to private capital. These include reducing costs by 45–55% and enhancing performance metrics such as round-trip efficiency. Demonstration and deployment projects, supported by public and private investment, are crucial for achieving these improvements. In addition, predictable compensation for LDES resource adequacy benefits, approximately $50–75 per kW per year by 2030, is essential to support investment in LDES. Regulatory and market changes must also accommodate longer-duration dispatchable power and value it appropriately.

Establishing a robust supply chain capable of delivering at least 3 GW of annual LDES manufacturing and deployment capacity by 2030 and up to 10–15 GW by 2035 is imperative to meet growing demand. This report focuses on LDES systems for inter-day (10–36 hours) and multiday/week (36–160+ hours) applications, addressing various technology types, stakeholders, and market segments. Ultimately, cost-effective LDES technologies offer a promising pathway to enable high renewable energy integration, enhance grid resilience, reduce natural gas reliance, and diversify energy-storage supply chains, contributing significantly to the net-zero transition.

In conclusion, the DOE’s “Pathways to Commercial Liftoff” reports provide a roadmap for implementing clean energy technologies. Nuclear power holds promise as a source of carbon-free electricity, but industry-scale challenges must be addressed for its full potential to be realized. Carbon management presents investment opportunities in the United States, necessitating collaborative efforts, policy support, and community engagement. The clean hydrogen market is on the cusp of expansion, requiring solutions to growth-related challenges to achieve sustainability goals. LDES, despite initial costs and technological hurdles, offers significant grid benefits, making it essential for a sustainable and resilient energy future. These reports underscore the critical role of innovation and collaboration in advancing clean energy solutions and decarbonizing the US energy sector. To learn more, visit https://liftoff.energy.gov/about-the-liftoff-reports.