Scepticism largely deflated, and the denial machine’s intent to mislead unmasked, climate warming owing to an-thropic carbon emission is now seen by most as an ongoing process. When compared to the historic rates, the predicted warming rate and concomitant rates of biotic response should be considered simply colossal. This is the point about which the present paper gives insight based on numerical analyses. The Vostok temperature series, its different transforms, and palynological spectra from global sites are the basic data. These are marshalled in support of the paper’s main proposition that the thermal effect on the vegetation depends not only on the rate of troposphere warming or cooling, but very much on the velocity of onset and length of duration. The main text begins with a definition of terms, followed by a short essay tracing how the conceptualisation of the climate warming paradigm evolved from initial scepticism to acceptance as a reality. The technical sections treat the conversion problem from Vostok inversion-layer temperature differences to global mean rates. It offers frequency distributions for historic warming/cooling rates, and explains the latitude dependence of the translation of the rates into local thermal flux. Presentation of examples of historic thermal events and the effect on the global vegetation close the main text. Statistical analyses are involved based on a novel methodology. The methods are concerned with formation migration rates, metrics of compositional transition velocity and acceleration, long-term variation in the representation of specific taxa in palynological spectra, taxon traits and taxon plasticity, and hotspots detection in compositional transitions. The palynological data are examined in synchrony with historic trends in the troposphere’s Late Quaternary temperature history. Owing to the broad topical contents, the paper adapts a modular structure of presentation which requires the evaluation and interpretation of the results where they are presented. An overview is given at the end with emphasis on the general trends.
Anderson, P.M. 1988. Late Quaternary pollen records from the Kobuk and Noatak River drainages, northwestern Alaska. Quaternary Research 29: 263–276.
Anderson, R.S. 1993. A 35,000 year vegetation and climate history from Potato Lake, Mogollon Rim, Arizona. Quaternary Research 40: 351–359.
Behling, H.V., De Patta Pillar, V., Orlóci, L. And Bauermann, S.G. 2004. Late Quaternary Araucaria forest, grassland (Campos), fire and climate dynamics, studied by high-resolution pollen, charcoal and multivariate analysis of the Cambará do Sul core in southern Brazil. Paleogeography, Paleoclimatology, Paleoe-cology 203: 277–297.
Berry, Th. 1988. The Dream of the Earth. Sierra Club Books, San Franscisco.
Black, R. 2007. Bali deal: Small presents for all. BBC News, 2007/2/15, http:news.bbc.co.uk/.
Bonnefille, R., Riollet, G., Buchet, G., Icole, M., Lafont, R., Arnold, M. and Jolly, D. 1995. Glacial/Interglacial record from intertropical Africa, high resolution pollen and carbon data at Rusaka, Burundi. Quaternary Science Reviews 14: 917–936.
Braun, E. L. 1950. Deciduous Forests of Eastern North America. Blakston, Toronto.
CBC Television Fifth Estate, November 15, 2006, The Climate Denial Machine, Canada. <www.vivelecanada.ca/arti-cle.php/20061115140323941>
Colinvaux, P.A., de Oliveira, P.E., Moreno, J.E., Miller, M.C. and Bush, M.B. 1996. A long pollen record from lowland Amazonia: forest and cooling in glacial times. Science 274:85–88.
Conway, T.J., Tans P.P., Waterman, L.S., Thoning, K.W., Kitzis, D.R., Masarie, K.A. and N. Zhang. 1994. Evidence of interannual variability of the carbon cycle from the NOAA/CMDL global air sampling network. J. Geophys. Research 99: 22831–22855.
Cruikshank, D.P. 1986. Mauna Kea. A guide to the upper slopes and observatories. University of Hawaii at Manoa, Institute of Astronomy, Honolulu, Hawaii, U.S.A.
Cwynar, L. C. 1982. A Late-Quaternary vegetation history from Hanging Lake, northern Yukon. Ecol. Monog. 52:, 1–24.
Delcourt, P.A. and Delcourt, H.R. 1987.Long-term Forest Dynamics of the Temperate Zone. Ecological Studies 63, Springer, New York.
Ege, E. and Christiansen, J.L. (eds.). 2002. Sceptical Questions and Sustainable Answers. The Danish Ecological Council, Copenhagen. ISBN: 87-89843-37-1. <www.ecocouncil.dk/down-load/sceptical.pdf
Feoli, E. and Orlóci, L. 1991. Fuzzy components in community level comparisons. In: E. Feoli and L. Orlóci (eds.), Computer Assisted Vegetation Analysis, Kluver, London, pp. 87–93.
Feoli, E. and Zuccarello, V. 1989. Syntaxonomy: a source for useful fuzzy sets for environmental analysis? Coenoses 3:141–147.
Global Pollen Database. 2007. Address: <www.ncdc.noaa.gov/pa-leo/pollen.html>
Gore, A. 1992. Earth in the Balance. Ecology and the Human Spirit Houghton Mifflin, Boston.
Gore, A. 2006. An Inconvenient truth. Paramount Classics and Participant Productions, David Gugenheimer directing. Hollywood, CF.
Grady, R.E. 2001. Search for the “Son of Kyoto”. Time, June 25, p. 17.
Gray, J. and Se, J.S. 1984. Climatic implications of the natural variation of D/H ratio in tree ring cellulose. Earth Planet Sc. Lett. 70: 129–138.
IPCC — Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2001. Third Assessment Report. – Climate Change. Web address: <http://www.ipcc.ch>
IPCC — Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2007. Fourth Assessment Report – Climate hange. <www.ipcc.ch>
Jacobs, B.F. 1985. A middle Wisconsin pollen record from Hay Lake, Arizona. Quaternary Research 24: 121–130.
Keeling, C.D., Bacastow, R.B., Bainbridge, A.E., Ekdahl, C.A., Guenther, P.R. and Waterman, L.S. 1976. Atmospheric carbon dioxide variations at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. Tellus 28: 538–551.
Kershaw, A.P. 1994. Pleistocene vegetation of the humid tropics of northeastern Queensland, Australia. Palaeogeography, Palaeo-climatology, and Palaeoecology 109: 399–412.
Kluger, J. 2001. A climate of despair. Time April 9, pp. 30–36.
Krajina, V. J. 1963. Biogeoclimatic biomes on the Hawaiian Islands. Newsletter of the Hawaiian Botanical Society 7: 93–98.
Küchler, A.W. 1974. Vegetation Mapping. Ronald Press, New York.
Küchler, A.W. 1990. Natural Vegetation. In: Espenchade Jr., E.B. and Morrison, J.L. (Eds.) Rand McNally Good’s World Atlas, 18th edn. Rand McNally, New York, pp. 8–9.
Lemonic, M.D. 2001. Life in the greenhouse. Making a case that our climate is changing. Time, April 9, pp. 24–29.
Lomborg, B. 2001a. The truth about the environment. The economist, August 4–10, pp. 63–65.
Lomborg, B. 2001b. The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World, Cambridge University Press, CAmbridge.
Lozhkin, A.V., Anderson, P.M., Eisner, W.R., Ravako, L.G., Hopkins, D.M., Brubaker, L.B., Colinvaux, P.A., Miller, M.C. 1993. Late Quaternary lacustrine pollen records from southwestern Beringia. Quaternary Research 39: 314–324.
Manabe, S., Bryan, K. and Spelman, M. J. 1990. Transient response of a global ocean-atmosphere model to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 20: 722–749.
Mason, J. 1990. The greenhouse effect and global warming. Information Office, British Coal, C.R.E. Stoke Orchard, Cheltenham, Gloucestershire, U.K. GL52 4RZ.
Milankovitch, M.M. 1941. Canon of isolation and the Ice-Age problem. Royal Serb Acad. Spec. Publ. 133.
NSF - National Research Council. 2001. Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions. Washington, USA. Find abstract in “Global Change Digest: May/June 2001 Edition”. <www.globalchange.org/gccd/ Digest/homepage.html>
Orlóci, L. 1975. Measurement of redundancy in species collections. Vegetatio 31: 65–67.
Orlóci, L. 1978. Multivariate Analysis in Vegetation research. 2nd ed. W. Junk, The Hague.
Orlóci, L. 1991. On character-based plant community analysis: choice, arrangement, comparison. Coenoses 6: 103–107.
Orlóci, L. 1994. Global warming: the process and its anticipated phytoclimatic effects in temperate and cold zones. Coenoses 9: 69–74. — Pre-publication version <http://publish.uwo.ca/~lorloci/Files.html>
Orlóci, L. 2001. Prospects and expectations: reflections on a science in change. Community Ecology 2: 187–196.
Orlóci, L. 2008. Trajectory analysis: powerful conceptual tool for understanding nature. <http://vegetationdynamics.blog-spot.com/> and links “Featured paper”, “Appendices”.
Orlóci, L. and Orlóci, M. 1985. Comparison of communities without the use of species: model and example. Ann. Bot. (Roma) 43: 275–285.
Orlóci. L. and Orlóci,M. 1995. Sampling and Data Analysis. Theory, problems, examples. Scada Associates, London, Canada. Mimeographed.
Orlóci, L., Pillar, V. D., Anand, M. and Behling, H. 2002. Some interesting characteristics of the vegetation process. Community Ecology 3: 125–146.
Orlóci, L., Pillar, V.D., and Anand, M. 2006. Multiscale analysis of palynological records: new possibilities. Community Ecology 7: 53–68.
Parmesan, C. 2006. Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 37: 637–639.
Petit, J.R., Jouzel, D. Raynaud, D., Barkov, N.I, Barnola, J.M., Basile, I., Bender, M., Chappellaz, J., Davis, J., Delaygue, G., Delmotte, M., Kotlyakov, V.M., Legrand, M., Lipenkov, V., Lorius, C., Pepin, L., Ritz, C., Saltzmann, E. and Stievenard, M. 1999. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok Ice Core, Antarctica. Nature 300: 429–436.
Petit, J.R., Jouzel, J. Raynaud, D., Barkov, N.I, Barnola, J.M., Basile, I., Bender, M., Chappellaz, J., Davis, J., Delaygue, G., Delmotte, M., Kotlyakov, V.M., Legrand, M., Lipenkov, V., Lorius, C, Pepin, L., Ritz, C, Saltzmann, E. and Stievenard, M. 2001. Vostok Ice Core Data for 420,000 years, IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series #2001-076. NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA.
Pillar, V., Duarte, L.S., Sosinski, E.E. andJoner, F. 2008. Sorting out trait-convergence and trait-divergence assembly patterns in ecological community gradients. J. Veg. Sci. (In press.)
Pillar, V.D., Orlóci, L. 1993. Character-based Vegetation Analysis: the Theory and an Application Program. Ecological Computations Series (ECS): Vol. 5. SPB Academic Publishingbv, The Hague, The Netherlands.
Schweingruber, F.H. 1996. Tree Rings and Environment Dendroe-cology. Paul Haupt, Stuttgart.
Singh, G. and Geissler, E.A. 1985. Late Cainozoic history of vegetation, fire, lake levels and climate at Lake George, New South Wales, Australia. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B, 311:379–447.
Sneath, P.H.A. and Sokal, R.R. 1973. Numerical Taxonomy. The Principles and Techniques of Numerical Classification. Freeman, San Fracisco.
Sokal, R.R. and Sneath, P.H.A. 1963. Principles of Numerical taxonomy. Freeman, San Francisco.
Tans, P. 2008. NOAA/ESRL records on CO2 in Mauna Loa’s atmosphere. <www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends>.
Thoning, K.W., Tans, P.P. and Komhyr, W.D. 1989. Atmospheric carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa Observatory 2. Analysis of the NOAA GMCC data, 1974–1985. J. Geophys. Research 94: 8549–8565.
Trewartha, G.T. 1990. Climatic Regions. In: Espenchade, E.B. Jr. and Morrison, J.L. (Eds.), RandMcNally Good’s World Atlas, 18th ed. Rand McNally, New York, pp. 8–9.
Trewartha, G.T. 2001. Global Mechanism of UNCCD, Via del Serafico 107, 00142 Rome, Italy. Web address: www.gm-unccd.org/English/ Field/aridity.htm>.
Walter, H., Harnickell, E. and Mueller-Dombois, D. 1975. Climate Diagram Maps. Springer, New York.
Watts, W.A., Bradbury, J.P. 1982. Paleoecological studies at Lake Patzcuaro on the west-central Mexican Plateau and at Chalco in the Basin of Mexico. Quaternary Research 17: 56–70.
Watts, W.A., Hansen, B.C.S. and Grimm, E.C. 1992. Camel Lake: A 40,000-yr record of vegetational and forest history from northwest Florida. Ecology 73: 1056–1066.
Wilkins, G.R., Delcourt, P.A., Delcourt, H.R., Harrison, F.W. and Turner, M.R. 1991. Paleoecology of central Kentucky since the last glacial maximum. Quaternary Research 36: 224–239.
World Data Center for Paleoclimatology. 2002. Address: <www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore/antarctica/vostok>
This is written version of the lecture presented at Eötvös University, Budapest, in September 2007, extended and sections revised.
About this article
Cite this article
Orlóci, L. Vegetation displacement issues and transition statistics in climate warming cycle1. COMMUNITY ECOLOGY 9, 83–98 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1556/ComEc.9.2008.1.10
- Anthropic carbon
- Denial machine
- General trends
- Late Quaternary vegetation
- Transition metrics
- Vostok temperature transformations
- Warming-cooling rates