Abstract
It is widely believed that an equilibrium framework based on simple models, such as the representative agent and bilateral bargaining, in a frictionless economy provides a consistent framework in micro, macro, finance, and institutional economics. However, equilibrium believes in self-stabilizing market and institutional convergence broken down when inherent instability and non-predictable uncertainty emerge under nonlinear and social interactions. Equilibrium illusions in economics and econometrics are pretty in math modeling but dangerous in policy decision. Known examples are the Frisch model of noise-driven cycles, the Lucas model of microfoundations, and the Coasian world of zero transactions. These models not only violate basic laws in science but also lack evidence in economic history. Their common problem is associated with linear Hamiltonian economics with symmetric information without history. Economies are dissipative systems in nature, characterized by symmetry breaking, information flow, a time arrow, and history. The many-body problem is fundamentally different from the one-body and two-body problem in mathematics. Both computational and natural experiments, such as a stock market crash and a transitional depression, reveal the severe limitations of equilibrium thinking and structural changes from evolutionary dynamics. The new science of complexity offers new tools of nonlinear dynamics and non-stationary time series analysis. Existing puzzles in equilibrium economics, such as persistent cycles, interruptive crises, market resilience, social movements, and organizational diversity, can be better understood by nonlinear dynamic models. Like the paradigm shift after Einstein in physics, the evolutionary perspective provides a general framework, while equilibrium models serve as its special cases, since the equilibrium picture is an approximation of economic complexity in a short-time window taken from a long-term historical current.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Arrow, K. J. (1962) “The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing,” Review of Economic Studies 39: 155.
Arrow, K. J. and G. Debreu (1954) “Existence of an Equilibrium for a Competitive Economy,” Econometrica 22. 3: 265–290.
Barnett, W. A. and P. Chen (1988) “The Aggregation-Theoretic Monetary Aggregates Are Chaotic and Have Strange Attractors: An Econometric Application of Mathematical Chaos,” in W. Barnett, E. Berndt, and H. White (eds) Dynamic Econometric Modeling, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 199–246.
Becker, G. (1991) “A Note on Restaurant Pricing and Other Examples of Social Influences on Price,” Journal of Political Economy 99: 1106–1116.
Black, F. and M. Scholes (1973) “The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities,” Journal of Political Economy 81: 637–654.
Brillouin, L. (1962) Science and Information Theory, Academic Press, New York.
Calvo, G. and F. Coricelli (1992) “Stabilizing a Previously Centrally Planned Economy: Poland 1990,” Economic Policy 14: 175–208.
Carter, S. etalet al. (eds) (1997) Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970 Bicentennial Edition, Cambridge University Press, New York.
Chen, P. (1987) “Origin of the Division of Labor and a Stochastic Mechanism of Differentiation,” European Journal of Operational Research 30: 246–250.
- (1988) “Empirical and Theoretical Evidence of Monetary Chaos,” System Dynamics Review 4: 81–108.
- (1996a) “A Random Walk or Color Chaos on the Stock Market?—Time-Frequency Analysis of Samp;P Indexes,” Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics amp; Econometrics 1.2: 87–103.
- (1996b) “Trends, Shocks, Persistent Cycles in Evolving Economy: Business Cycle Measurement in Time-Frequency Representation,” in W. A. Barnett, A. P. Kirman, and M. Salmon (eds) Nonlinear Dynamics and Economics, Cambridge University Press, pp. 307–331.
- (1999) The Frisch Model of Business Cycles-A Spurious Doctrine, But a Mysterious Success, IC 2 Working Paper 99-05-01, University of Texas at Austin.
- (2002) “Microfoundations of Macroeconomic Fluctuations and the Laws of Probability Theory: the Principle of Large Numbers vs. Rational Expectations Arbitrage,” Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 49: 327–344.
- (2005) “Evolutionary Economic Dynamics: Persistent Business Cycles, Disruptive Technology, and the Trade-Off between Stability and Complexity,” in K. Dopfer (ed) The Evolutionary Foundations of Economics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 472–505.
- (2006) “Market Instability and Economic Complexity: Theoretical Lessons from Transition Experiments,” in Y. Yao and L. Yueh (eds) Globalisation and Economic Growth in China World Scientific, Singapore, pp. 35–58.
- (2007) “Complexity of Transaction Costs and Evolution of Corporate Governance,” Kyoto Economic Review 76. 2: 139–153.
Cheung, S. N. S. (1998) “The Transaction Costs Paradigm,” Economic Inquiry 36: 514–521.
Coase, R. H. (1937) “The Nature of the Firm,” Economica 4.16: 386–405.
- (1960) “The Problem of Social Cost,” Journal of Law and Economics 3.1: 1–44.
- (1988) The Firm, the Market, and the Law, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
De Long, J. B., A. Shleifer, L. H. Summers and R. J. Waldmann (1990) “Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation,” Journal of Finance 45. 2: 379–395.
Dessing, M. (2002) “Labor Supply, the Family and Poverty: the S-shaped Labor Supply Curve,” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 49. 4: 433–458.
Dopfer, K. (2005) The Evolutionary Foundation of Economics, Cambridge University Press.
Dornbusch, R. (1993) “The End of German Miracle,” Journal of Economic Literature 31.2: 881–885.
Engle, R. F. and C. W. J. Granger (1987) “Co-integration and Error-correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing,” Econometrica 55: 251–276.
Fama, E. F. (1970) “Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work,” Journal of Finance 25: 384–433.
- (1991) “Efficient Capital Market II,” Journal of Finance 46. 5: 1575–1617.
Friedman, M. (1953) “The Case of Flexible Exchange Rates,” in M. Friedman (ed) Essays in Positive Economics, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp. 157–203.
- (1961) “The Lag in Effect of Monetary Policy,” Journal of Political Economy 69. 5: 447–466. [see page 454 on two choices of detrending; in M. Friedman (ed) (1969) Optimal Quantity of Money and Other Essays. Aldine, Chicago.]
Frisch, R. (1933) “Propagation Problems and Impulse Problems in Dynamic Economics,” in Economic Essays in Honour of Gustav Cassel, George Allen & Unwin, London, pp. 171–206.
- (1981) “From Utopian Theory to Practical Applications: The Case of Econometrics,” American Economic Review 71. 6: 1–16.
Galbraith, J. K. (2008) “Inequality, Unemployment and Growth: New Measurement for Old Controversies,” Journal of Economic Inequality (in press). [also see: University of Texas Inequality Project working paper (http://utip.gov.utexas.edu)]
Hall, P. and D. Soskice (2001) Varieties of Capitalism, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Hansen, G. D. and E. C. Prescott (2002) “Malthus to Solow,” American Economic Review 92. 4: 1205–1217.
Hao, B. L. (1990) Chaos II, World Scientific, Singapore.
Hayek, F. A. (1935) Prices and Production, Routledge, London.
Hodrick, R. J. and E. C. Prescott (1997) “Post-War US. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation,” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 29. 1: 1–16.
Kolodko, G. W. (2000) From Shock to Therapy: The Political Economy of Postsocialist Transformation, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Kornai, J. (1979) “Demand versus Resource Constrained Systems,” Econometrica 47.4: 801–819.
- (1986) “The Soft Budget Constraints,” Kyklos 39. 1: 3–30.
Kydland, F. E. and E. C. Prescott (1990) “Business Cycles: Real Facts and a Monetary Myth,” Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 14: 3–18.
Lentief, W. W. (1936) “The Fundamental Assumption of Mr. Keynes’ Monetary Theory of Unemployment,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 51: 192–197.
Lucas, R. E. Jr. (1972) “Expectations and the Neutrality of Money,” Journal of Economic Theory, 4: 103–124. [also in Lucas (1981).]
- (1981) Studies in Business-Cycle Theory, MIT Press, MA: Cambridge.
- (1988) “On the Mechanics of Economic Development,” Journal of Monetary Economics 22: 3–42.
Maddison, A. (2007) The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective/Historical Statistics, OECD: Development Center Studies.
Marshall, A. (1920) Principles of Economics, 8th ed., Porcupine, Philadelphia.
Minsky, H. P. (1985) “The Financial Instability Hypothesis: A Restatement,” in P. Arestis and T. Skouras (eds) Post Keynesian Economic Theory, Sharpe.
Münter, M. and R. Sturm (2005) “Economic Consequences of German Unification,” in W. Gellner and J. D. Robertson (eds) Berlin Republic: German Unification and a Decade of Changes, Frank Cass, London.
Nelson, C. R. and C. I. Plosser (1982) “Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series, Some Evidence and Implications,” Journal of Monetary Economics 10: 139–162.
New Beijing News (2008) “China’s State Bank Reform under Central Bank: Costs 2.1 trillion Yuan, Generated Benefits 1 trillion Yuan in 4 years,” March 6, 2008) at: http://www.finance.sina.com.cn/roll/20080306/02062047268.shtml
Prigogine, I. (1984) Order Out of Chaos, Bantam, New York.
Qian, S. and D. Chen (1996) Joint Time-Frequency Analysis, Upper Saddle River Prentice-Hall, NJ.
Romer, C. D. (2004) “Great Depression,” Encyclopedia Britannica, Chicago.
Romer, P. M. (1986) “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth,” Journal of Political Economy 94: 1002–1038.
Ross, S. (1976) “Return, Risk, and Arbitrage,” in I. Friend and J. Bicksler (eds) Risk and return in Finance, Ballinger, Cambridge, pp. 189–218.
Rostow, W. W. (1960/1990) The Stages of Economic Growth, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
- (1978) The World Economy: History amp; Prospect, University of Texas Press, Austin, p. 675.
Sachs, J. D. (2005) The End of Poverty, Penguin Books, New York.
Samuelson, P. A. (1939) “Interactions between the Multiplier Analysis and the Principle of Acceleration,” Review of Economic Statistics 21: 75–78.
- (1961) Economics, An Introductory Analysis, 5th ed., McGraw-Hill, New York.
Schmidt-Nielsen, K. (1984) Scaling: Why Is Animal Size So Important? Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Schrödinger, E. (1944) What Is Life, The Physical Aspect of the Living Cell, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Schumpeter, J. A. (1934) The Theory of Economic Development, Harvard University Press, Cambridge.
Shileifer, A. and D. Treisman (2005) “A Normal Country: Russia after Communism,” Journal of Economic Perspective 19. 1: 151–174.
Stack, H. M. (1997) “The ‘Colonization’ of East Germany?: A Comparative Analysis of German Privatization,” Duke Law Journal 46. 5: 1211–1253.
Stigler, G. J. (1951) “The Division of Labor Is Limited by the Extent of the Market,” Journal of Political Economy 59: 185–193.
Stiglitz, J. E. (1976) “The Efficient Wage Hypothesis, Surplus Labor, and the Distribution of Income in L.D.C.s,” Oxford Economic Papers 28. 2: 185–207.
Tikhomirov, V. (2000) The Political Economy of Post-Soviet Russia, St. Martin, New York.
Uhlenbeck, G. E., and L. S. Ornstein (1930) “On the Theory of Brownian Motion,” Physical Review 36. 3: 823–841.
Von Hagen, J. and R. R. Stauch (2001) “East Germany: Transition with Unification, Experiments, and Experiences,” in M. I. Blejer and M. Skreb (eds) Transition, the First Decade, MIT Press, MA: Cambridge.
Wallis, J. J. and D. C. North (1986) “Measuring the Transaction Sector in the American Economy, 1870–1970,” pp. 95–148, and “Comments” by Lance E. Davis, pp.149–161, in Engerman, Stanley L. and Robert E. Gallman (eds) Long-Term Factors in American Economic Growth, Studies on Income and Wealth, vol. 51 (National Bureau of Economic Research), University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp. 95–148.
Williamson, J. (1990) “What Washington Means by Policy Reform?” in J. Williamson (ed) Latin America Adjustment: How Much Has Happened? Institute for International Economics, Washington D.C..
Zeng, W. and P. Chen (2008) “Volatility Smile, Relative Deviation, and Trading Strategy—A General Diffusion Model of Stock Pricing Based on Nonlinear Birth-Death Process (in Chinese),” China Economic Qurterly 7.4 (to appear)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
This paper is based on the paper “Equilibrium Illusion and Evolutionary Foundation in Economic Theory” presented at the JAFEE (Japanese Association for Evolutionary Economics) annual meeting in Kagoshima on Sept. 23, 2007. The author is grateful for the inspirational discussions in the past with Paul Samuelson, Richard Day, James Galbraith, Finn Kydland, Edward Prescott, Steven Cheung, Gregory Chow, Ulrich Witt, Joseph Stiglitz, Kurt Dopfer, Yagi Kiichiro, Yuji Aruka, and the recent participants of the Kagoshima meeting.
This work was supported by Grant No. 07BJL004 from the National Social Science Foundation of China.
About this article
Cite this article
Chen, P. Equilibrium Illusion, Economic Complexity and Evolutionary Foundation in Economic Analysis. Evolut Inst Econ Rev 5, 81–127 (2008). https://doi.org/10.14441/eier.5.81
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.14441/eier.5.81