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The seasonality of conception

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Demography

Abstract

Individual data on menstrual cycles of noncontracepting women living in Western countries were used in order to verify whether the biological seasonality of conception persists after sexual behavior is controlled for. Episodes of intercourse were recorded daily, and the time of ovulation was detected by a marker. We find that the seasonality of conception changes with woman’s age and frequency of episodes of sexual intercourse. In particular, for women aged 27–31 having only one act of intercourse during the six most fertile days of the menstrual cycle, the seasonality of fecundability is stronger. In this age group in the Northern Hemisphere, if seasonality of acts of sexual intercourse is controlled, the monthly distribution of probability of conception is bimodal, with two maxima (September and January) and two minima (December and March). When unobserved characteristics of the couples are considered, this seasonal pattern of conception persists.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Statistics, University of Messina, Italy

    Ester Lucia Rizzi

  2. Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Padova, Via Cesare Battisti 241, 35100, Padova, Italy

    Gianpiero Dalla-Zuanna

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  1. Ester Lucia Rizzi
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  2. Gianpiero Dalla-Zuanna
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This research is part of the project, “The Exasperation of Individual and Couple Control of Marital and Reproductive Life,” directed by Professor Massimo Livi Bacci, founded by MURST (The Italian Ministry of Education and Research) in 2003–2004. Comments, suggestions, and additional information that were received by Bernardo Colombo, Guido Masarotto, Paul Allison, Alessandro Rosina, Stuart Coles, anonymous referees, and editors of this journal are gratefully acknowledged. The Menstrual Cycle Fecundability Study data were collected in 12 centers providing natural family planning services. The authors thank the general coordinator, Professor Bernardo Colombo, as well as the Department of Statistical Sciences at the University of Padova in Italy for making these data available.

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Rizzi, E.L., Dalla-Zuanna, G. The seasonality of conception. Demography 44, 705–728 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.2007.0040

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