Abstract
This article outlines a formal model-based approach for inferring interregional age-specific migration streams in settings where such data are incomplete, inadequate, or unavailable. The estimation approach relies heavily on log-linear models, using them to impose some of the regularities exhibited by past age and spatial structures or to combine and borrow information drawn from other sources. The approach is illustrated using data from the 1990 and 2000 U.S. and Mexico censuses. nt]mis|This work was supported by the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development and the National Science Foundation. The authors are grateful to Virgilio Partida Bush for providing the data on Mexico, to Rick Rogers for his comments and suggestions on an earlier draft of this article, and to the three anonymous reviewers who suggested useful revisions.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Agresti, A. 2002. Categorical Data Analysis. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley and Sons.
Ahmed, B. and J.G. Robinson. 1994. “Estimates of Emigration of the Foreign-Born Population: 1980–1990.” Technical Working Paper No. 9. Population Division, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC.
Bogue, D.J. 1969. Principles of Demography. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
Brass, W. 1974. “Perspectives in Population Prediction: Illustrated by the Statistics of England and Wales.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A 137:532–70.
Ewbank, D.C. 1981. Age Misreporting and Age-Selective Underenumeration: Sources, Patterns, and Consequences for Demographic Analysis. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
Heligman, L. and J.H. Pollard. 1980. “The Age Pattern of Mortality.” Journal of the Institute of Actuaries 107(434):49–80.
Hill, K. 1985. “Indirect Approaches to Assessing Stocks and Flows of Migrants.” Pp. 205–24 in Immigration Statistics: A Story of Neglect, edited by D.B. Levine, K. Hill, and R. Warren. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
Little, J.S. and A. Rogers. 2007. “What Can the Age Composition of a Population Tell Us About the Age Composition of Its Outmigrants?” Population, Space and Place 13:23–39.
Nair, P.S. 1985. “Estimation of Period-Specific Gross Migration Flows From Limited Data: Bi-Proportional Adjustment Approach.” Demography 22:133–42.
Plane, D.A. 1981. “Estimation of Place-to-Place Migration Flows from Net Migration Totals: A Minimum Information Approach.” International Regional Science Review 6(1):33–51.
—. 1982. “An Information Theoretic Approach to the Estimation of Migration Flows.” Journal of Regional Science 22:441–56.
Preston, S.H., P. Heuveline, and M. Guillot. 2000. Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes Gross Migration Flows. New York: Blackwell.
Raymer, J. Forthcoming. “Obtaining an Overall Picture of Population Movement in the European Union.” In The Estimation of International Migration in Europe: Issues, Models and Assessment, edited by J. Raymer and F. Willekens. Chicester, United Kingdom: John Wiley and Sons.
Raymer, J., A. Bonaguidi, and A. Valentini. 2006. “Describing and Projecting the Age and Spatial Structures of Interregional Migration in Italy.” Population, Space and Place 12:371–88.
Rogers, A. and L.J. Castro. 1981. “Model Migration Schedules.” RR-81-30, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Rogers, A. and L. Jordan. 2004. “Estimating Migration Flows From Birthplace-Specific Population Stocks of Infants.” Geographical Analysis 36(1):38–53.
Rogers, A. and J.S. Little. 1994. “Parameterizing Age Patterns of Demographic Rates With the Multiexponential Model Schedule.” Mathematical Population Studies 4(3):175–94.
Rogers, A., F.J. Willekens, J.S. Little, and J. Raymer. 2002. “Describing Migration Spatial Structure.” Papers in Regional Science 81:29–48.
Rogers, A., F.J. Willekens and J. Raymer. 2001. “Modeling Interregional Migration Flows: Continuity and Change.” Mathematical Population Studies 9:231–63.
—. 2002. “Capturing the Age and Spatial Structures of Migration.” Environment and Planning A 34:341–59.
—. 2003. “Imposing Age and Spatial Structures on Inadequate Migration-Flow Datasets.” The Professional Geographer 55(1):56–69.
Rogerson, P.A. 1984. “New Directions in the Modelling of Interregional Migration.” Economic Geography 60(2):111–21.
Rowland, D.T. 2003. Demographic Methods and Concepts. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Schmertmann, C.P. 1992. “Estimation of Historical Migration Rates From a Single Census: Interregional Migration in Brazil 1900–1980. Population Studies 46(1):103–20.
Siegel, J.S. and D.A. Swanson, Eds. 2004. The Methods and Materials of Demography. Amsterdam: Elsevier Academic Press.
Snickars, F. and J.W. Weibull. 1977. “A Minimum Information Principle: Theory and Practice.” Regional Science and Urban Economics 7:137–68.
Tobler, W. 1995. “Migration: Ravenstein, Thornthwaite, and Beyond.” Urban Geography 16: 327–43.
United Nations. 1983. Manual X: Indirect Techniques for Demographic Estimation. New York: Department of International Economic and Social Affairs.
Warren, R. and E.P. Kraly. 1985. “The Elusive Exodus: Emigration From the United States.” Population Trends and Public Policy Occasional Paper, No. 8. Population Reference Bureau, Washington, DC.
Warren, R. and J.M. Peck. 1980. “Foreign-Born Emigration From the United States: 1960 to 1970.” Demography 17:71–84.
Willekens, F.J. 1980. “Entropy, Multiproportional Adjustment and the Analysis of Contingency Tables.” Systemi Urbani 2/3:171–201.
—. 1982. “Multidimensional Population Analysis With Incomplete Data.” Pp. 43–111 in Multidimensional Mathematical Demography, edited by K. Land and A. Rogers. New York: Academic Press.
—. 1983. “Log-Linear Modelling of Spatial Interaction.” Papers of the Regional Science Association 52:187–205.
—. 1999. “Modeling Approaches to the Indirect Estimation of Migration Flows: From Entropy to EM.” Mathematical Population Studies 7:239–78.
Zaba, B. 1987. “The Indirect Estimation of Migration: A Critical Review.” International Migration Review 21:1395–445.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Raymer, J., Rogers, A. Using age and spatial flow structures in the indirect estimation of migration streams. Demography 44, 199–223 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.2007.0016
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.2007.0016