, Volume 42, Issue 1, pp 23–49

Long-range trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods

  • John Bongaarts

DOI: 10.1353/dem.2005.0003

Cite this article as:
Bongaarts, J. Demography (2005) 42: 23. doi:10.1353/dem.2005.0003


In the study reported here, I had two objectives: (1) to test a new version of the logistic model for the pattern of change over time in age-specific adult mortality rates and (2) to develop a new method for projecting future trends in adult mortality. A test of the goodness of fit of the logistic model for the force of mortality indicated that its slope parameter is nearly constant over time. This finding suggests a variant of the model that is called the shifting logistic model. A new projection method, based on the shifting mortality model, is proposed and compared with the widely used Lee-Carter procedure.

Copyright information

© Population Association of America 2005

Authors and Affiliations

  • John Bongaarts
    • 1
  1. 1.Population CouncilNew York

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