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Social demographic change and autism

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Demography

Abstract

Parental age at child’s birth—which has increased for U.S. children in the 1992–2000 birth cohorts—is strongly associated with an increased risk of autism. By turning a social demographic lens on the historical patterning of concordance among twin pairs, we identify a central mechanism for this association: de novo mutations, which are deletions, insertions, and duplications of DNA in the germ cells that are not present in the parents ’ DNA. Along the way, we show that a demographic eye on the rising prevalence of autism leads to three major discoveries. First, the estimated heritability of autism has been dramatically overstated. Second, heritability estimates can change over remarkably short periods of time because of increases in germ cell mutations. Third, social demographic change can yield genetic changes that, at the population level, combine to contribute to the increased prevalence of autism.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Paul F. Lazarsfeld Center for the Social Sciences, Columbia University, International Affairs Building, 420 W. 118th Street, MC 3355, 10027, New York, NY

    Kayuet Liu, Noam Zerubavel & Peter Bearman

Authors
  1. Kayuet Liu
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  2. Noam Zerubavel
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  3. Peter Bearman
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Correspondence to Peter Bearman.

Additional information

This research is supported by the NIH Pioneer Award Program, part of the NIH Roadmap for Medical Research, through Grant Number 1 DP1 OD003635-01.

Participants at seminars and grand rounds where this work was discussed—at Mount Sinai Hospital, Harvard University, Columbia University, The National Institutes for Health, and the National Institute of Mental Health—are gratefully thanked for their useful comments.

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Liu, K., Zerubavel, N. & Bearman, P. Social demographic change and autism. Demography 47, 327–343 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.0.0101

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