Abstract
Obesity is considered a major cause of premature mortality and a potential threat to the longstanding secular decline in mortality in the United States. We measure relative and attributable risks associated with obesity among middle-aged adults using data from the Health and Retirement Study (1992–2004). Although class II/III obesity (BMI _ 35.0 kg/m2) increases mortality by 40% in females and 62% in males compared with normal BMI (BMI = 18.5-24.9), class I obesity (BMI = 30.0-34.9) and being overweight (BMI = 25.0-29.9) are not associated with excess mortality. With respect to attributable mortality, class II/III obesity (BMI _ 35.0) is responsible for approximately 4% of deaths among females and 3% of deaths among males. Obesity is often compared with cigarette smoking as a major source of avoidable mortality. Smoking-attributable mortality is much larger in this cohort: about 36% in females and 50% in males. Results are robust to confounding by preexisting diseases, multiple dimensions of socioeconomic status (SES), smoking, and other correlates. These findings challenge the viewpoint that obesity will stem the long-term secular decline in U.S. mortality.
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This research was completed when Dr. Mehta was supported by a T32 Predoctoral Institutional Training Grant from the National Institutes of Health (AG000177; PI: Dr. Beth Soldo, University of Pennsylvania). Dr. Chang was supported in part by Grant K12HD043459 from the National Institutes of Health. The authors thank Samuel Preston and Irma Elo for their guidance and suggestions. We are also grateful to three anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments.
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Mehta, N.K., Chang, V.W. Mortality attributable to obesity among middle-aged adults in the united states. Demography 46, 851–872 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.0.0077
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.0.0077