Demography

, Volume 43, Issue 2, pp 361–382

Foreign-born emigration: A new approach and estimates based on matched CPS files

  • Jennifer Van Hook
  • Weiwei Zhang
  • Frank D. Bean
  • Jeffrey S. Passel
Article

Abstract

The utility of postcensal population estimates depends on the adequate measurement of four major components of demographic change: fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration. Of the four components, emigration, especially of the foreign-born, has proved the most difficult to gauge. Without “direct” methods (i.e., methods identifying who emigrates and when), demographers have relied on indirect approaches, such as residual methods. Residual estimates, however, are sensitive to inaccuracies in their constituent parts and are particularly ill-suited for measuring the emigration of recent arrivals. Here we introduce a new method for estimating foreign-born emigration that takes advantage of the sample design of the Current Population Survey (CPS): repeated interviews of persons in the same housing units over a period of 16 months. Individuals appearing in a first March Supplement to the CPS but not the next include those who died in the intervening year, those who moved within the country, and those who emigrated. We use statistical methods to estimate the proportion of emigrants among those not present in the follow-up interview. Our method produces emigration estimates that are comparable to those from residual methods in the case of longer-term residents (immigrants who arrived more than 10 years ago), but yields higher—and what appear to be more accurate—estimates for recent arrivals. Although somewhat constrained by sample size, we also generate estimates by age, sex, region of birth, and duration of residence in the United States.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Ahmed, B. and J.G. Robinson. 1994. “Estimates of Emigration of the Foreign-born Population: 1980–1990.” Working Paper No. 9. Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Washington, DC. Available online at http://www.census.gov/population/www/techpap.html Google Scholar
  2. Bean, F.D., R. Corona, R. Tuiran, and K.A. Woodrow-Lafield. 1998. “The Quantification of Migration Between Mexico and the United States.” Pp. 1–90 in Migration Between Mexico and the United States, Thematic Chapters. Mexico City and Washington, DC: Mexican Ministry of Foreign Affairs and U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform.Google Scholar
  3. Bean, F.D., R. Corona, R. Tuiran, K.A. Woodrow-Lafield, and J. Van Hook. 2001. “Circular, Invisible, and Ambiguous Migrants: Components of Difference in Estimates of the Number of Unauthorized Mexican Migrants in the United States.” Demography 38:411–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Borjas, G. and B. Bratsberg. 1996. “Who Leaves? The Outmigration of the Foreign Born.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 78:165–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Brown, S.K. and F.D. Bean. 2005. “International Migration.” Pp. 347–82 in Sourcebook on Population, edited by D.L. Poston and M. Micklin. New York: Springer Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Duleep, H. 1994. “Social Security and the Emigration of Immigrants.” Social Security Bulletin 57(1):37–51.Google Scholar
  7. Ellis, M. and R. Wright. 1998. “When Immigrants Are Not Immigrants: Counting Arrivals of the Foreign Born Using the U.S. Census.” International Migration Review 32:127–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Fernandez, E.W. 1995. “Estimates of the Annual Emigration of U.S. Bom Persons by Using Foreign Censuses and Selected Administrative Data: Circa 1980.” Technical Working Paper No. 10. Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC. Available online at http://www.census.gov/population/www/techpap.html Google Scholar
  9. Gibbs, J.C., G.S. Harper, M.J. Rubin, and H.B. Shin. 2003. “Evaluating Components of International Migration: Native-Born Emigrants.” Working Paper No. 63. Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC. Available online at http://www.census.gov/population/www/techpap.html Google Scholar
  10. Hogan, H. 1993. “The 1990 Post-Enumeration Survey: Operations and Results.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 88:1047–60.Google Scholar
  11. Jasso, G. and M. Rosenzweig. 1990. The New Chosen People: Immigrants in the United States. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.Google Scholar
  12. Kraly, E.P. 1998. “Emigration: Implications for U.S. Immigration Policy Research.” Pp. 587–618 in Migration Between Mexico and the United States: Binational Study, Vol. 2, Research Reports and Background Materials. Mexico City and Washington, DC: Mexican Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform.Google Scholar
  13. Madrian, B.C. and L.J. Lefgren. 1999. “A Note on Longitudinally Matching Current Population Survey (CPS) Respondents.” NBER Technical Working Paper No. 247. National Bureau of Economic Research. Available online at http://papers.nber.org/papers/T0247 Google Scholar
  14. Massey, D.S., J. Durand, and N.J. Malone. 2002. Beyond Smoke and Mirrors: Mexican Migration in an Era of Economic Integration. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.Google Scholar
  15. Massey, D.S. and A. Singer. 1995. “New Estimates of Undocumented Mexican Migration and the Probability of Apprehension.” Demography 32:203–13.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Mulder, T. 2003. “Foreign-born Emigration From the United States: 1990 to 2000.” Paper presented at the 2003 annual meeting of the Population Association of America, May 1–3, Minneapolis, MN.Google Scholar
  17. Mulder, T.J., B. Guzman, and A. Brittingham. 2002. “Evaluating Components of International Migration: Foreign-born Emigrants.” Demographic Analysis-Population Estimates (DAPS) Research Project, Working Paper No. 62. Population Division, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC. April. Available online at http://www.census.gov/population/www/documentation/twps0062.html Google Scholar
  18. National Center for Health Statistics. 2000. “National Health Interview Survey Multiple Cause of Death Files-2000 Linkage.” Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics.Google Scholar
  19. Palloni, A. and E. Arias. 2004. “Paradox Lost: Explaining the Hispanic Adult Mortality Advantage.” Demography 41:385–416.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Passel, J.S. and B. Edmonston. 1994. “Immigration and Race: Recent Trends in Immigration to the United States.” Pp. 31–72 in Immigration and Ethnicity: The Integration of America's Newest Arrivals, edited by B. Edmonston and J.S. Passel. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute Press.Google Scholar
  21. Passel, J.S., J. Van Hook, and F.D. Bean. 2004. “Estimates of the Legal and Unauthorized Foreign-born Population for the United States and Selected States, Based on Census 2000.” Paper prepared for the U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC. Available online at http://www.sabresys.com/iwhitepapers.asp Google Scholar
  22. Robinson, J.G., B. Ahmed, P. Das Gupta, and K.A. Woodrow. 1993. “Estimation of Population Coverage in the 1990 United States Census Based on Demographic Analysis.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 88:1061–79.Google Scholar
  23. Stata Corporation. 2003. Stata Base Reference Manual, Volume 4 A-F Release 8. College Station, TX: Stata Corporation.Google Scholar
  24. U.S. Census Bureau. 2001. Report on Adjustment Decision: October 2001. ESCAP II. Washington, DC. Available online at http://www.census.gov/dmd/www/EscapRep2.html Google Scholar
  25. U.S. Census Bureau. 2002a. “Annual Demographic Survey March Supplement: 2002 Methodology and Documentation.” Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau. Available online at http://www.bls.census.gov/cps/ads/adsmain.htm Google Scholar
  26. U.S. Census Bureau. 2002b. “Current Population Survey: Design and Methodology.” Technical Paper No. 63RV. Washington, DC. Available online at http://www.bls.census.gov/cps/tp/tp63.htm Google Scholar
  27. Van Hook, J. and F.D. Bean. 1998. “Estimating Unauthorized Migration to the United States: Issues and Results.” Pp. 511–50 in Migration Between Mexico and the United States, Research Reports and Background Materials. Mexico City and Washington, DC: Mexican Ministry of Foreign Affairs and U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform.Google Scholar
  28. Warren, R. and J. Passel. 1987. “A Count of the Uncountable.” Demography 24:375–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Warren, R. and J.M. Peck. 1980. “Foreign-born Emigration From the United States: 1960 to 1970.” Demography 17:71–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Woodrow-Lafield, K.A. 1995. “An Analysis of Net Immigration in Census Coverage Evaluation.” Population Research and Policy Review 14:173–204.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Woodrow-Lafield, K.A. 1996. “Emigration From the United States: Multiplicity Survey Evidence.” Population Research and Policy Review. 15:171–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Woodrow-Lafield, K.A. 1998. “Viewing Emigration at Century's End.” Pp. 683–94 in Migration Between Mexico and the United States: Binational Study, Vol. 2 Research Reports and Background Materials. Mexico City and Washington, DC: Mexican Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Population Association of America 2006

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jennifer Van Hook
    • 1
  • Weiwei Zhang
    • 2
  • Frank D. Bean
    • 3
  • Jeffrey S. Passel
  1. 1.Department of SociologyBowling Green State UniversityBowling GreenUSA
  2. 2.Center for Family and Demographic ResearchBowling Green State UniversityUSA
  3. 3.Department of SociologyUniversity of California-IrvineUSA
  4. 4.The Pew Hispanic CenterUSA

Personalised recommendations