Advertisement

Demography

, Volume 41, Issue 1, pp 129–150 | Cite as

The fertility contribution of Mexican immigration to the United States

  • Stefan Hrafn Jonsson
  • Michael S. Rendall
Article

Abstract

Crucial to the long-term contribution of immigration to a receiving country’s population is the extent to which the immigrants reproduce themselves in subsequent, native-born generations. Using conventional projection methodologies, this fertility contribution may be poorly estimated primarily because of problems in projecting the number of immigrants who are at risk of childbearing. We propose an alternative method that obviates the need to project the number of immigrants by using the full sending-country birth cohort as the risk group to project their receiving-country childbearing. This “sending-country birth cohort” method is found to perform dramatically better than conventional methods when projecting to 1999 from base years both before and after the large increase in inflows of Mexican immigrants to the United States in the late 1980s. Projecting forward from 1999, we estimate a cumulative contribution of Mexican immigrant fertility from the 1980s to 2040 of 36 million births, including 25% to 50% more births after 1995 than are projected using conventional methods.

Keywords

Birth Cohort Census Bureau Total Fertility Rate Mexican Immigration Female Birth 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Bean, F.D., R. Corona, R. Tuirán, and K.A. Woodrow-Lafield. 1998. “The Quantification of Migration Between Mexico and the United States.” Pp. 1–89 in Migration Between Mexico and the United States: A Binational Study (Vol. I). Mexico City: Mexican Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Washington, DC: U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform. Available on-line at http://www.utexas.edu/lbj/uscir/binpapers/v1-1bean.pdfGoogle Scholar
  2. —. 2001. “Circular, Invisible, and Ambiguous Migrants: Components of Difference in Estimates of the Number of Unauthorized Mexican Migrants in the United States.” Demography 38:411–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Bean, F.D., D.G. Swicegood, and R. Berg. 2000. “Mexican-Origin Fertility: New Patterns and Interpretations.” Social Science Quarterly 81:404–20.Google Scholar
  4. Campos, B.F. 1998. “El Registro Extemporáneo de los Nacimientos: Una Fuente de Información Desatendida.” Demos 11:35–37.Google Scholar
  5. Day, J.C. 1996. Population Projection of the United States by Age, Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2050. Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau.Google Scholar
  6. Donato, K.M. 1993. “Current Trends and Patterns of Female Migration: Evidence From Mexico.” International Immigration Review 27:748–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). 2000a. “América Latina: Población por Años Calendario y Edades Simples 1995–2005.” Demographic Bulletin 66. Santiago, Chile: ECLAC.Google Scholar
  8. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). 2000b. “On-line Supplement to América Latina: Población por Años Calendario y Edades Simples 1995–2005.” Demographic Bulletin 66. Available on-line at http://www.eclac.cl/publicaciones/Poblacion/9/LCG2099P/BD66full.htmlGoogle Scholar
  9. Edmonston, B. and J.S. Passel 1999. “How Immigration and Intermarriage Affect the Racial and Ethnic Composition of the U.S. Population.” Pp. 373–414 in Immigration and Opportunity: Race, Ethnicity, and Employment in the United States, edited by F.D. Bean and S. Bell-Rose. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.Google Scholar
  10. Espenshade, T.J. 1986. “Population Dynamics With Immigration and Low Fertility.” Population and Development Review 12(Suppl.):248–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. — 1994. “Can Immigration Slow U.S. Population Aging?” Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 13:759–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Farley, R. 1996. The New American Reality: Who We Are, How We Got Here, Where We Are Going. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.Google Scholar
  13. Feichtinger, G. and G. Steinmann. 1992. “Immigration Into a Population With Fertility Below Replacement Level: The Case of Germany.” Population Studies 46:275–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Guzmán, B. and E. Diaz McConnell. 2002. “The Hispanic Population: 1990–2000 Growth and Change.” Population Research and Policy Review 21:109–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Martin, J.A., B.A. Hamilton, S.J. Ventura, F. Menacker, and M.M. Park. 2002. “Births: Final Data for 2000.” National Vital Statistics Reports 50(5):1–104.Google Scholar
  16. Mathews, T.J., S.J. Ventura, S.C. Curtin, and J.A. Martin. 1998. “Births of Hispanic Origin, 1989–95.” Monthly Vital Statistics Report 46(6):1–28.Google Scholar
  17. National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). Various years. “Natality Detail File [United States].” Washington, DC: National Center for Health Statistics.Google Scholar
  18. Robinson, J.G., K.K. West, and A. Adlakha. 2002. “Coverage of the Population in Census 2000: Results From Demographic Analysis.” Population Research and Policy Review 21:19–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Rogers, A. 1990. “Requiem for the Net Migrant.” Geographical Analysis 22:283–300.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. — 1995. Multiregional Demography: Principles, Methods, and Extensions. New York: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
  21. Schmertmann, C.P. 1992. “Immigrants’ Ages and the Structure of Stationary Populations With Below-Replacement Fertility.” Demography 29:595–612.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Schmertmann, C.P., C.G. Swicegood, and M. Sobczak. 2002. “Immigration’s Impact on U.S. Fertility: An Exploratory Analysis of Recent Trends.” Paper presented at the 2002 annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Atlanta, May 9–11.Google Scholar
  23. Shai, D. and I. Rosenwaike. 1991. “An Overview of Age-Adjusted Death Rates Among Three Hispanic Populations in the Home Countries and in the United States.” Pp. xvi, 221 in Mortality of Hispanic Populations: Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, and Cubans in the United States and in the Home Countries, edited by I. Rosenwaike. New York: Greenwood Press.Google Scholar
  24. Smith, D.P. 1992. Formal Demography. New York: Plenum Press.Google Scholar
  25. Smith, J.P. and B. Edmonston. 1997. The New Americans: Economic, Demographic and Fiscal Effects of Immigration. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.Google Scholar
  26. Spencer, G. 1986. Projection of the Hispanic Population 1983–2080. Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau.Google Scholar
  27. United Nations. 2000. Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations? United Nations, Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Development.Google Scholar
  28. United Nations. Various years. Demographic Yearbook—Annuaire démographique. New York: Department of Economic and Social Affairs Statistical Office United Nations.Google Scholar
  29. U.S. Census Bureau. 2000. “International Data Base (IDB).” Available on-line at http:// www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.htmlGoogle Scholar
  30. Ventura, S.J. 1985. “Births of Hispanic Parentage, 1982.” Monthly Vital Statistics Report 34(4): 1–16.Google Scholar
  31. Ventura, S.J., J.A. Martin, S.C. Curtin, F. Menacker, and B.E. Hamilton. 2001. “Births: Final Data for 1999.” National Vital Statistics Report 49(1):1–100.Google Scholar
  32. Waldrop, J. and J.F. Long. 2002. “A First Look at the 21st Century: Census 2000.” Population Research and Policy Review 21:3–16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Population Association of America 2004

Authors and Affiliations

  • Stefan Hrafn Jonsson
    • 1
    • 2
    • 3
  • Michael S. Rendall
    • 2
    • 3
    • 4
  1. 1.Center for Social Research and AnalysisReyjavíkIceland
  2. 2.Department of SociologyPennsylvania State UniversityUSA
  3. 3.Population Research InstitutePennsylvania State UniversityUSA
  4. 4.RANDSanta MonicaUSA

Personalised recommendations