, Volume 37, Issue 4, pp 499–510 | Cite as

Forecasting enrollments for immigrant entry-port school districts

  • Peter A. Morrison
Applications of DemoGraphic Models


This paper projects school enrollments in Santa Ana, California and evaluates the accuracy of the projections. It emphasizes the distinctive aspects of a local setting undergoing substantial immigrant influx and highlights the uncertainties that must be addressed. I adapt existing forecasting approaches to such local situations, match assumptions to future unknowns, and devise “early warning” thresholds keyed to timely decision making. This hybrid approach offers forecasters a useful point of departure in local settings dominated by wide margins of uncertainty and inherently risky assumptions.


School District Capture Rate Residential Density Orange County Grade Progression 
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Copyright information

© Population Association of America 2000

Authors and Affiliations

  • Peter A. Morrison
    • 1
  1. 1.RANDSanta Monica

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