, Volume 47, Issue 1, pp 227–247 | Cite as

Last hired, first fired? black-white unemployment and the business cycle

  • Kenneth A. CouchEmail author
  • Robert Fairlie


Studies have tested the claim that blacks are the last hired during periods of economic growth and the first fired in recessions by examining the movement of relative unemployment rates over the business cycle. Any conclusion drawn from this type of analysis must be viewed as tentative because cyclical movements in the underlying transitions into and out of unemployment are not examined. Using Current Population Survey data matched across adjacent months from 1989–2004, this article provides the first detailed examination of labor market transitions for primeage black and white men to test the last hired, first fired hypothesis. Considerable evidence is presented that blacks are the first fired as the business cycle weakens. However, no evidence is found that blacks are the last hired. Instead, blacks appear to be initially hired from the ranks of the unemployed early in the business cycle and later are drawn from nonparticipation. The narrowing of the racial unemployment gap near the peak of the business cycle is driven by a reduction in the rate of job loss for blacks rather than increases in hiring.


Labor Market Unemployment Rate Business Cycle Transition Rate Current Population Survey 
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Copyright information

© Population Association of America 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of EconomicsUniversity of ConnecticutStorrs
  2. 2.Department of EconomicsUniversity of CaliforniaSanta Cruz

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