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Annals of Surgical Oncology

, Volume 23, Issue 11, pp 3564–3571 | Cite as

Analysis of Prognostic Factors from 9387 Merkel Cell Carcinoma Cases Forms the Basis for the New 8th Edition AJCC Staging System

  • Kelly L. HarmsEmail author
  • Mark A. Healy
  • Paul Nghiem
  • Arthur J. Sober
  • Timothy M. Johnson
  • Christopher K. Bichakjian
  • Sandra L. Wong
Medical Oncology

Abstract

Background

The first consensus Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) staging system was published in 2010. New information on the clinical course prompts review of MCC staging.

Methods

A total of 9387 MCC cases from the National Cancer Data Base Participant User File with follow-up and staging data (1998–2012) were analyzed. Prognostic differences based on clinical and pathological staging were evaluated. Survival estimates were compared by disease extent.

Results

Sixty-five percent of cases presented with local disease, whereas 26 and 8 % presented with nodal and distant disease. Disease extent at presentation was predictive of 5-year overall survival (OS) with estimates of 51, 35, and 14 % for local, nodal, and distant disease. Tumor burden at the regional nodal basin was predictive of 5-year OS with estimates of 40 and 27 % for clinically occult and clinically detected nodal disease. For local disease, we confirm improved prognosis when the regional nodal basin was negative by pathological compared with clinical staging. We identified 336 cases with clinically detected nodal disease and unknown primary tumor and showed improved prognosis over cases presenting with concurrent primary tumor (OS estimates of 42 vs. 27 %).

Conclusions

Analysis of a national dataset of MCC cases validates the predictive value of disease extent at presentation. Separation of clinical and pathological stage groups and regrouping of unknown primary tumors are supported by the analysis. The revised staging system provides more accurate prognostication and has been formally accepted by the AJCC staging committee for inclusion in the 8th edition.

Keywords

Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy National Comprehensive Cancer Network Merkel Cell Carcinoma Occult Nodal Metastasis Regional Nodal Basin 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Notes

Acknowledgment

MAH is supported by NIH T32CA009672-24. The data used in the study are from the NCDB PUF. The ACS-CoC has not verified and are not responsible for the analytic/statistical methodology employed or the conclusions drawn by the investigators.

Disclosures

KLH, MAH, TMJ, CKB, and SLW have no conflict of interest disclosures. PN is a consultant for EMD Serono; travel, accommodations, other expenses from EMD Serono; research funding from Brisol Myers Squibb to PN’s institution. AJS has research funding from MELA Sciences; AJS has stock in Merck, Amgen, Teva, and Pfizer.

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Copyright information

© Society of Surgical Oncology 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Kelly L. Harms
    • 1
    Email author
  • Mark A. Healy
    • 2
    • 3
  • Paul Nghiem
    • 4
    • 5
    • 6
  • Arthur J. Sober
    • 7
  • Timothy M. Johnson
    • 1
    • 2
    • 8
  • Christopher K. Bichakjian
    • 1
  • Sandra L. Wong
    • 2
    • 3
    • 9
  1. 1.Department of DermatologyUniversity of Michigan Health System and Medical SchoolAnn ArborUSA
  2. 2.Department of SurgeryUniversity of Michigan Health System and Medical SchoolAnn ArborUSA
  3. 3.Center for Healthcare Outcomes & PolicyUniversity of MichiganAnn ArborUSA
  4. 4.Department of Medicine/DermatologyUniversity of WashingtonSeattleUSA
  5. 5.Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research CenterSeattleUSA
  6. 6.Seattle Cancer Care AllianceSeattleUSA
  7. 7.Department of DermatologyMassachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical SchoolBostonUSA
  8. 8.Department of OtolaryngologyUniversity of Michigan Health System and Medical SchoolAnn ArborUSA
  9. 9.Department of SurgeryDartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center and Geisel School of Medicine at DartmouthLebanonUSA

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