The study was conducted at the University of Oxford, UK, as a part of ongoing investigations into the ketone monoester. It was approved by the Oxfordshire Research Ethics Committee and conducted in accordance with the guidelines of the Declaration of Helsinki. All participating subjects gave written informed consent.
Study Population
Healthy human volunteers (n = 37; 22 males and 15 females) consumed a single drink of the ketone monoester (see Supplemental materials and methods online). Two drink formulations were studied. Formulation 1 was a citrus-flavoured sports drink that was prepared in four dose levels of ketone monoester (192, 291, 395 and 573 mg/kg). Formulation 2 was a chocolate milkshake meal replacement preparation and consisted of one 500 mg/kg group (see Supplemental materials and methods online for calorific composition of formulations). All subjects received a single drink of the ketone monoester following an overnight fast, and blood samples were collected for analysis of BHB concentration. Dosing details and demographic details of the subjects are presented in Table I. Covariates for assessing variability in PK were formulation, dose, age, sex, weight (WT), lean body weight (LBW) and height. In this study, LBW was calculated according to the method of Janmahasatian et al. (23).
Table I Formulation, Dosing and Demographic Data of the Subjects
Samples and Assays
A rich sampling design was used in all dose groups. Capillary blood samples were collected before and every 15 min after the drink until the blood concentrations had returned to pre-drink concentrations of BHB (i.e. 0.1 to 0.2 mmol/L (10.41 to 20.82 mg/L)). For the 291, 395 (Formulation 1) and 500 mg/kg (Formulation 2) groups, the blood sampling schedule was before and at 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1, 1.25, 1.5, 1.75, 2, 2.25, 2.5, 2.75, 3, 3.25, 3.5, 3.75, 4, 4.25, 4.5, 4.75 and 5 h after the drink. Additional samples were collected in the 573 mg/kg group (Formulation 1) at 5.25, 5.5, 5.75, 6, 6.25, 6.5, 6.75 and 7 h post-drink. For the 192 mg/kg group (Formulation 1), the blood sampling schedule was before and after the drink at 0.08, 0.17, 0.25, 0.33, 0.42, 0.5, 0.75, 1, 1.25, 1.5, 1.75, 2, 2.25, 2.5, 2.75 and 3 h. Samples were collected from arterialised capillary droplet, either from a finger or earlobe, and analysed for BHB using FreeStyle Optium β ketone test strips (Abbott Diabetes Care, UK) (24). PK observations in this study were limited to BHB, and other analytes such as AcAc, acetone and precursors of ketones were not investigated. The lower limit of quantification (LLOQ) for BHB in this assay was 10.41 mg/L (0.1 mmol/L, conversion factor 104.1). The assay is highly selective for oxidation of BHB and has previously been validated. The specificity, selectivity, accuracy and precision of this analytical method have been reported (25,26). Accuracy of the assay was ranged from 91.4 to 107%, and precision (% CV) was ranged from 3.2 to 10.5%.
Population PK Modelling
The first-order conditional estimation with interaction method in NONMEM® version 7.2 was used to model the data (27). Additive, exponential and combined (additive + exponential) error models were explored to describe the residual unexplained variability as shown in Eq. 1:
$$ {y}_{ij}=g\left({D}_i,{t}_{ij},{\boldsymbol{\theta}}_{\boldsymbol{i}}\right)exp\left({\varepsilon}_{1,ij}\right)+{\varepsilon}_{2,ij} $$
(1)
where \( {y}_{ij} \) represents the observed j
th concentration in the i
th individual, g is the functional form of the structural model that predicts the data, D
i
is the dose administered to the i
th individual, t
ij
represents the j
th time point in the i
th individual, θ
i
is the vector of parameter values for the i
th individual, \( {\varepsilon}_{1,ij} \) represents the exponential random error and \( {\varepsilon}_{2,ij} \) represents the additive random error. The additive and exponential errors were assumed to be identically, independently multivariate, normally distributed with mean of zero and a diagonal variance-covariance matrix (Σ).
Heterogeneity or between-subject variance in parameter estimates was assumed to be distributed log normally and was modelled as shown in Eq. 2:
$$ {\theta}_{ip} = {\beta}_p. exp\left({\eta}_{ip}\right) $$
(2)
\( {\theta}_{ip} \) represents the p
th parameter value in i
th individual, \( {\beta}_p \) is the population value for the p
th parameter, η
ip
is the random effect for p
th parameter in the i
th individual. Random effects across the individuals in the population were assumed to be identically, independently multivariate normally distributed with means of zero and variance-covariance matrix (Ω).
Model Development
One, two and three compartment models with extravascular administration were assessed. All models were parameterised in terms of clearances (CL) and volumes of distribution (V). Zero-order, first-order absorption and multiple absorption sites models with and without lag time were explored for the absorption process. To account for data below limit of quantitation (BLQ), the M6 method (see Stuart Beal’s methods to fit models to BLQ data) (28) was considered. Of note, the M3 method was tried initially but proved to be unstable (i.e. the model would reach a different objective function value following small perturbations in the initial parameter values). Finally, first-order and capacity limited (Michaelis-Menten kinetics) elimination processes were explored to describe the elimination of BHB. Basal concentrations were modelled to account for endogenous BHB. See B1 method proposed by Dansirikul et al. for estimation of baseline response (29). Turnover models were investigated to assess the effect of feedback inhibition on production of endogenous BHB.
Covariate Analysis
Assessment of covariates in this study was based on a predefined hierarchy. Covariates for assessment were chosen based on biological plausibility. Due to (statistical) nonlinearities inherent in PK models, the order of addition of covariates can affect their apparent statistical significance; hence, the order that they were considered is of importance. The predefined hierarchy based on our a priori belief about their likely contribution to the model was:
-
1.
Formulation (on relative oral bioavailable fraction (F), first-order absorption rate constant (k
a
) and lag time for oral absorption (ALAG))
-
2.
Dose (on F and fraction absorbed from slow input site (f
slowsite))
-
3.
Important phenotypic covariates such as WT, LBW (on CL, maximum rate of elimination by capacity limited pathway (V
max) and V)
-
4.
Other plausible phenotypic covariates such as age and sex (on CL, V
max and V)
Movement between the levels in the hierarchies for covariates was not allowed meaning a covariate considered at a specific level was not reconsidered whilst testing other covariates at lower levels. Within a hierarchy, standard forward selection and backward elimination were considered when there was more than one covariate (see Kumar et al. for similar method used in selection of covariates for Venlafaxine in overdose) (30).
Continuous covariates were assessed using nested covariate models. All continuous covariates such as dose, LBW and WT were centred either on their mean value (e.g. for Dose) or on a nominal value (e.g. 70 kg for WT) in the study as shown in Eq. 3 (for WT):
$$ {\theta}_{ip} = {\beta}_p\cdot {\left(\frac{WT}{70}\right)}^{\beta_{cov}}\cdot exp\left({\eta}_{ip}\right) $$
(3)
where \( {\beta}_p \) is the population value for the p
th parameter and β
cov
represents the estimated exponent of covariate. Continuous covariates were assessed by linear and power relationships. Selection of the covariate was based on predefined criteria discussed below.
Model Selection and Evaluation
The following criteria were used in selecting models:
-
i.
Stability of the model (i.e. the model would reach the same objective function value following small perturbations in the initial parameter values).
-
ii.
Significant decrease in the objective function value (OBJV) i.e. 3.84 units (critical value from the chi-squared distribution with p ≤ 0.05) for an additional parameter for nested models based on the likelihood ratio test (LRT).
-
iii.
Parameter estimates are biologically plausible (e.g. CL > 0 L/h).
-
iv.
A decrease in the residual unexplained variability.
-
v.
A decrease in the between-subject variance of a parameter after addition of a covariate.
Amongst the above criteria, the first three were required and the last two were considered desirable. Finally, models were evaluated using a visual predictive check (VPC) (31). To construct a VPC, 1000 datasets were simulated using the model under evaluation and 10th (lower), 50th (median) and 90th (higher) percentiles of model predictions were plotted with the same percentiles of the original data. The percentiles of the model predictions also include the 95% confidence intervals around the model-predicted percentiles. For creating prediction-corrected VPCs, median predictions in each bin were used to normalise the observed and simulated concentrations in that bin (32). All VPCs were created in R (ver 3.0.2; The R project for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria).