Skip to main content
Log in

Confidence intervals for expected abundance of rare species

  • Published:
Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

In many ecological research studies, abundance data are skewed and contain more zeros than might be expected. Often, the aim is to model abundance in terms of covariates, and to estimate expected abundance for a given set of covariate values. An approach that has been advocated recently involves the use of a conditional model. This allows one to separately model presence and abundance given presence, which should lead to a more complete understanding as to how the covariates influence abundance. The focus of this article is on the calculation of confidence intervals for expected abundance given particular values of the covariates. The standard Wald confidence interval is symmetric, and therefore unlikely to be of much use for skewed data, where reliable confidence intervals for abundance will generally be asymmetric. The purpose of this article is to show how to calculate a profile likelihood confidence interval for expected abundance using a conditional model.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Barry, S. C., and Welsh, A. H. (2002), “Generalized Additive Modelling and Zero Inflated Count Data,” Ecological Modelling, 157, 179–188.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brown, L. D., Cai, T., and DasGupta, A. (2003), “Interval Estimation in Exponential Families,” Statistica Sinica, 13, 19–49.

    MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Cox, D. R., and Hinkley, D. V. (1974), Theoretical Statistics, London: Chapman and Hall.

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Dobbie, M. J., and Welsh, A. H. (2001), “Modelling Correlated Zero-Inflated Count Data,” Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, 43, 431–444.

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Fletcher, D. J., MacKenzie, D. I., and Villouta, E. (2005), “Modelling Skewed Data with Many Zeros: A Simple Approach Combining Ordinary and Logistic Regression,” Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 12, 45–54.

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Johnson, N.L., Kemp, A.W., and Kotz, S. (2005), Univariate Discrete Distributions (3rd ed.), New York: Wiley.

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Khuri, A.I. (1993), Advanced Calculus with Applications in Statistics, New York: Wiley.

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Lambert, D. (1992), “Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression, With an Application to Defects in Manufacturing,” Technometrics, 34, 1–14.

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Martin, T.G., Wintle, B.A., Rhodes, J. R., Kuhnert, P.M., Field, S. A., Low-Choy, S. J., Tyre, A. J., and Possingham, H. P. (2005), “Zero Tolerance Ecology: Improving Ecological Inference by Modelling the Source of Zero Observations,” Ecology Letters, 8, 1235–1246.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stephenson, G. (1961), Mathematical Methods for Science Students, London: Longmans.

    Google Scholar 

  • Venzon, D. J., and Moolgavkar, S. H. (1988), “A Method for Computing Profile-Likelihood-Based Confidence Intervals,” Applied Statistics, 37, 87–94.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Welsh, A. H., Cunningham, R. B., Donnelly, C. F., and Lindenmayer, D. B. (1996), “Modelling the Abundance of Rare Species: Statistical Models for Counts With Extra Zeros,” Ecological Modelling, 88, 297–308.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to David Fletcher.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Fletcher, D., Faddy, M. Confidence intervals for expected abundance of rare species. JABES 12, 315–324 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1198/108571107X229322

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1198/108571107X229322

Key Words

Navigation