“Death is certain, the time is not”: mortality and survival in Game of Thrones

Game of Thrones is a popular HBO television series based on George R.R. Martin’s A Song of Ice and Fire book series (Martin 2012). The series portrays a fictional society characterised by political upheaval, civil wars, and wide-spread violence. Ceaseless feuding and the lack of stable democratic government precludes the establishment and development of institutions that can provide services to improve the health and well-being of the inhabitants. That the world of Game of Thrones is reminiscent of mediaeval European history is unsurprising considering that its creator has admitted that his creation was inspired by multiple historical events, in particular The Wars of the Roses which unfolded in England in the latter half of the fifteenth Century.

Violence has been a feature of every society throughout human history; however, there has been a sizable decline over time (Pinker 2011). For example, the annual rate of violent deaths of all kinds has declined from around 500 per 100,000 population in pre-state societies to 40 during the Middle Ages, and to less than 10 in modern societies (Pinker 2011; World Health Organization 2014). In pre-state societies, 15% of people died as a result of war, compared to less than 5 per 100,000 population today. In his book The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined, Steven Pinker identifies five historical forces that have contributed to the decline of violence in modern societies namely: the emergence of the modern nation-state with a monopoly on the legitimate use of force; the prioritisation of commerce over conquest; and a suite of enlightenment ideas (e.g. human rights, increased literacy, and the elevation of knowledge and rationality in problem-solving and decision-making) (Pinker 2011).

Few studies have investigated the health and well-being of the characters in Game of Thrones. One study described a dermatological disease called Greyscale (Lipoff 2016), while another study discussed forced fitness behaviours and associated hormonal responses (Rhodes and Zehr 2017). To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no epidemiological study of mortality and survival has been performed. The primary aim of this study was therefore to examine the mortality and survival of the characters in Game of Thrones. Specifically, to estimate survival time and probability, to identify predictive factors, and to describe causes and circumstances of deaths. The secondary aim was to give the authors an excuse to re-watch the first seven seasons before the final season reaches television screens worldwide.

This is the first scientific study to examine mortality and survival in Game of Thrones. It revealed that more than half of the important characters had died by the end of the seventh season, and the probability of dying within the first hour after first appearing on screen was about 14%. The vast majority of these deaths were due to injury, burns, or poisoning at the hands of other characters. The survival time of individual characters varied widely, a finding that echoes the quote from Jaqen H’ghar, an assassin featuring in Game of Thrones, which appears in the title of this paper.

The high rates of violent deaths observed in Game of Thrones are not without precedent in human history. For instance, archaeological evidence from prehistoric societies suggests that violent deaths accounted for about 15% of all-cause mortality, while ethnographic evidence indicates that the share of violent deaths for people living in pre-state societies was about 25% (Roser 2013a). In Europe, the homicide rates per 100,000 population have declined from around 40 homicides during the Middle Ages, to around 10 homicides in the eighteenth century, to around 3 homicides today (Roser 2013b; World Health Organization 2018).

Although many factors have undoubtedly contributed to the decline of violent deaths throughout human history, the following paragraph will be limited to a brief outline of some of the most significant ones. Perhaps foremost among these factors is the emergence of the nation-state with its monopoly on the legitimate use of force (Pinker 2011). The presence of such nation-states will tend to quell and restrain the anarchy, raiding, and feuding characterised by non-state societies. Next follows what Steven Pinker refers to as the “civilising process”, the process by which feudal territories were consolidated into large kingdoms with centralised authority and infrastructure for expanding commerce (Pinker 2011). As the importance of commerce increased, other people became more valuable alive than dead. The continued exchange of goods and services is, after all, more effective when trade partners are alive. The increased concern for the welfare of human beings, in turn, gives rise to the establishment of public institutions that can provide services to improve the health and well-being of the people (e.g. hospitals and public health departments). Lastly, but by no means least, is the rise of reason, the increasing application of knowledge and rationality in problem-solving and decision-making.

Where does the known world in Game of Thrones sit in regard to the factors that were highlighted in the preceding paragraph? For obvious reasons the world of Game of Thrones cannot be interpolated into human history; however, it may nevertheless be instructive to comment on to what extent any of the above-mentioned factors are apparent in Game of Thrones. Nation-states are not entirely universal in Game of Thrones, but they are common and wide-spread. The civilising process is clearly in progress, albeit far from completed. Although feudal territories in Westeros have coalesced into seven kingdoms, which in turn has been subjected to the rule of the Iron Throne, the political structure of the realm is evidently unstable. The legitimacy of the ruling power is questionable and the rule of law is ineffective, thus several competing factions are attempting to effect a regime change. There is clearly an emphasis on war rather than commerce, and although very limited medical care is available to some characters, there is a paucity of institutions for delivering public goods (e.g. schools, hospitals). Knowledge and reason do not appear to play a significant role in problem-solving and decision-making. Although some characters express concerns for human welfare and attempts to abolish slavery, such ideas are not universal or well enshrined in the world of Game of Thrones.

Given the societal structure outlined above, it should come as no surprise that violence prevention is presently not a priority in Game of Thrones. Despite being ubiquitous in human history, violence can be predicted and prevented (World Health Organization 2018). Effective violence prevention requires good quality data measuring the burden over time and identifying risk factors amenable to intervention. This study found that the risk of violent death was higher among characters who were male and lowborn. This is consistent with data from the real world suggesting that homicide rates are higher in countries and areas with lower socioeconomic status and that 80% of homicide victims are male (World Health Organization 2018). Other well-established risk factors for higher rates of violent deaths are transitions in political regime (World Health Organization 2018), the absence of good governance and the rule of law (World Health Organization 2018), and climatic instability (LeBlanc 1999; Jones et al. 1999). Although data pertaining to these risk factors were not recorded, it is nevertheless evident that the storyline in Game of Thrones is premised on the presence of these factors (e.g. the struggle to sit on the Iron Throne and that “Winter Is Coming”).

It could be argued there is great potential for violence prevention in the world of Game of Thrones. Beyond instituting legitimate (i.e. democratic) and stable governments that can deliver public goods such as justice based on the rule of law, the following recommendations could be offered: (1) increased efforts to expand commerce, thereby increasing the value of other people and creating more wealth and resources; (2) increased investment in institutions that can deliver public goods that will improve human health and well-being (e.g. schools, hospitals, and public health departments); (3) improve the built environment; and (4) develop and implement evidence-based violence prevention policies. Unlike violence prevention efforts in modern society, any of the above-mentioned recommendations could be implemented in Game of Thrones with the stroke of a pen. However, because this may negatively impact the show’s popularity, it seems unlikely any such changes will occur before the last episode of the final season reaches television screens worldwide.

This is the first scientific study to examine the mortality and survival in Game of Thrones. It revealed that the probability of a character dying within the first hour after first being introduced on screen was about 14%. By the end of the seventh season, more than half of the important characters had died, with violent deaths being the most common by far. The probability of survival was worse for characters who were male or lowborn, who had not switched allegiance during the show, and who featured more prominently in the show. There is great potential for preventing violent deaths in the world of Game of Thrones. Stable democratic governments, resilient institutions that deliver public goods, and implementation of evidence-based violence prevention polices can decrease the risk of violent deaths considerably.