Data and models for exploring sustainability of human well-being in global environmental change

Abstract

This position paper proposes a vision for the research activity about sustainability in global environmental change (GEC) taking place in the FuturICT flagship project. This activity will be organised in an “Exploratory”, gathering a core network of European scientists from ICT, social simulation, complex systems, economics, demographics, Earth system science. These research teams will collaborate in building a self-organising network of data sources and models about GEC and in using new facilities fostering stakeholder participation. We develop examples of concrete directions for this research: world wide virtual population with demographic and some economic descriptors, ecosystem services production and distribution, governance systems at various scales.

Graphical abstract

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

References

  1. 1.

    D.E. Bloom, Science 333, 562 (2011)

    ADS  Article  Google Scholar 

  2. 2.

    EEA report no. 2/2009. Water Resources Across Europe – Confronting Water Scarcity and Drought, Tech. Rep., EEA (2009)

  3. 3.

    Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Summary for Policymakers, Contribution of Working Group 1, the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Tech. Rep., IPCC (2007)

  4. 4.

    V. Lucarini, International J. Env. Poll. 18, 413 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. 5.

    F. Giannotti, D. Pedreschi, A. Pentland, P. Lukowicz, D. Kossmann, J. Corowley, D. Helbing, Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics 214, 49 (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  6. 6.

    M. Paolucci, D. Kossman, R. Conte, P. Lulowicz, P. Argyrakis, A. Blandford, G. Bonelli, S. Anderson, S. de Freitas, B. Edmonds, et al., Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics 214, 77 (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  7. 7.

    S.B. Shum, K. Aberer, A. Schmidt, S. Bishop, P. Lukowicz, S. Anderson, Y. Charalabidid, J. Domingue, S. de Freitas, I. Dunwell, et al., Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics 214, 109 (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  8. 8.

    D. Meadows, D. Meadows, J. Randers, W. Behrens III, The Limits to Growth (Universe Books, 1972)

  9. 9.

    G. Turner, Global Env. Change 18, 397 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. 10.

    U. Bardi, The Limits To Growth Revisited (Springer, 2011)

  11. 11.

    A. Atkinson, Believing Cassandra: How to be an Optimist in a Pessimist’s World (EarthScan, 2010)

  12. 12.

    M. Craglia, M.F. Goodchild, A. Annoni, G. Camara, M. Gould, W. Kuhn, D. Mark, I. Masser, D. Maguire, S. Liang, et al., Int. J. Spatial Data Infrastructures Research 3, 146 (2008)

    Google Scholar 

  13. 13.

    H. Guo, Z. Liu, L. Lu, Int. J. Digital Earth 3:1, 31 (2010)

    ADS  Article  Google Scholar 

  14. 14.

    J. Rotmans, B. de Vries, Perspectives on Global Change – the TARGETS approach (Cambridge University Press, 1997)

  15. 15.

    Growing Within Limits, Tech. Rep., Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), (2009)

  16. 16.

    L. Bouwman, T. Kram, K.K. Goldewijk, Integrated Modelling of Global Environmental Change – An Overview of Image 2.4. mnp Report, Tech. Rep., Bilthoven (2006)

  17. 17.

    M. Rounsevell, D. Robinson, D. Murray-Rust, Philosophical Trans. Royal Soc. B 367, 259 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. 18.

    G. Gallopì n, S. Funtowicz, M. O’Connor, J. Ravetz, Int. J. Social Science 168, 219 (2001)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. 19.

    E. Ostrom, Science 325, 419 (2009)

    MathSciNet  ADS  MATH  Article  Google Scholar 

  20. 20.

    G. Gallopìn, Int. Social Sci. J. 43, 707 (1991)

    Google Scholar 

  21. 21.

    O. Young, F. Berkhout, G. Gallopin, M. Janssen, E. Ostrom, S. van der Leeuw, Global Env. Change 16, 304 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. 22.

    D.C. Parker, S.M. Manson, M.A. Janssen, M.J. Hoffmann, P. Deadman, Ann. Association Amer. Geograph. 93, 314 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. 23.

    F. Bousquet, O. Barreteau, P. D’Aquino, M. Etienne, S. Boissau, S. Aubert, C. Le Page, D. Babin, J.C. Castella, Multi-agent Systems and Role Games: An Approach for Ecosystem Co-management (Edward Elgar, 2002), p. 248

  24. 24.

    R. Matthews, N. Gilbert, A. Roach, J. Polhill, N. Gotts, Landscape Ecol. 22, 1447 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. 25.

    M. Janssen, E. Ostrom, Ecol. Soc. 11, 37 (2006)

    Google Scholar 

  26. 26.

    D. Murray-Rust, N. Dendoncker, T.P. Dawson, L. Acosta-Michlik, E. Karali, E. Guillem, M. Rounsevell, J. Land Use Sci. 6, 83 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. 27.

    E. Ostrom, J. Econo. Perspect. 14, 137 (2000)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. 28.

    X. Chen, F. Lupi, L. An, R. Sheely, A. Viña, J. Liu, Ecol. Modell. (2011)

  29. 29.

    M.D.A. Rounsevell, B. Pedroli, K.-H. Erb, M. Gramberger, A.G. Busck, H. Haberl, S.e.a. Kristensen, Land Use Policy (2012)

  30. 30.

    N. Becu, Ecol. Modell. 170, 319 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. 31.

    C. Topping, T. Høye, C. Olesen, Ecol. Modell. 221, 245 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. 32.

    S. Lauf, D. Haase, P. Hostert, T. Lakes, B. Kleinschmit, Env. Modell. Software 27-28, 71 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. 33.

    A. Saltelli, M. Ratto, T. Andres, F. Campolongo, J. Cariboni, D. Gatelli, M. Saisana, et al., Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer (Wiley Online Library, 2008)

  34. 34.

    A. Ligmann-Zielinska, L. Sun, Int. J. Geograph. Inf. Sci. 24, 1829 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. 35.

    M. Ratto, A. Castelletti, A. Pagano, Env. Modell. Software (2011)

  36. 36.

    B. de Vries, Interacting with Complex Systems: Models and Games for a Sustainable Economy, Tech. Rep., Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), (2010)

  37. 37.

    S. Kefi, M. Rietkerk, C.L. Alados, Y. Pueyo, A. Papanastasis, V.P. ElAich, P.C. de Ruiter, Nature 449, 213 (2007)

    ADS  Article  Google Scholar 

  38. 38.

    M. Scheffer, Critical Transitions in Nature and Society (Princeton University, 2009)

  39. 39.

    M. Kok, M. Lüdeke, T. Sterzel, P. Lucas, C. Walter, P. Janssen, and I. de Soysa, Quantitative Analysis of Patterns of Vulnerability to Global Environmental Change, Tech. Rep., PBL/PIK/NTNU Background Studies (2011)

  40. 40.

    C. Godfray, I. Crute, L. Haddad, D. Lawrence, J. Muir, N. Nisbett, J. Pretty, S. Robinson, C. Toulmin, R. Whiteley, Philosoph. Trans. Royal Society B 365, 2769 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. 41.

    F. Bouwman, B.A.B.G., Global Biogeochem. Cycles 23 (2009)

  42. 42.

    L.v. Beek, Y. Wada, M. Bierkens, Water Resource Res. 47 W07517 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. 43.

    Y. Wada, L. van Beek, D. Viviroli, H. Dürr, R. Weingartner, M. Bierkens, Water Resource Res. 47 W07518 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. 44.

    A. Voinov, F. Bousquet, Env. Modell. Software 25 (2010)

  45. 45.

    O. Barreteau, F. Bousquet, J. Attonaty, J. Artificial Soc. Social Simul. 4 (2001)

  46. 46.

    N. Becu, A. Neef, P. Schreinemachers, C. Sangkapitux, Land Use Policy 25, 498 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. 47.

    M. Etienne (ed.), Companion Modelling. A Participatory Approach to Support Sustainable Development (QUAE, 2011)

  48. 48.

    O. Barreteau, P.W.G. Bots, K.A. Daniell, Ecol. Soc. 15 1 (2010)

    Google Scholar 

  49. 49.

    G. Guariso, H. Werhner, Environmental Decision Support Systems (E. Horwood, 1989)

  50. 50.

    V. Grimm, U. Berger, F. Bastiansen, S. Eliassen, V. Ginot, J. Giske, J. Goss-Custard, T. Grand, S. Heinz, G. Huse, et al., Ecol. Modell. 198, 115 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  51. 51.

    D. Parker, D. Brown, J. Polhill, S. Manson, P. Deadman, in Agent-based Modellaling in Natural Resource Management, edited by A. Paredes, C. Iglesias (Pearson Education, 2008)

  52. 52.

    P. Edwards, J. Farrington, C. Mellish, L. Philip, A. Chorley, F. Hielkema, E. Pignotti, R. Reid, J. Polhill, N. Gotts, Social Sci. Comp. Rev. 27, 553 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  53. 53.

    P. Smits, D. Arctur, R. Atkinson, L. Bargmeyer, B. Boerboom, S. Browdy, E. Van Praag, G. Hodge, S. Jensen, T. Suha Ulgen, and M. Wilson, Eye on Earth Working Group 3 – Technical Infrastructure White Paper 1: Recommendations for the Technical Design of a Global Interoperable Information Network, Tech. Rep., Environment Agency Abu Dhabi (2011)

  54. 54.

    F. Gargiulo, S. Ternès, S. Huet, G. Deffuant, PLoS One 5 e8828 (2010)

    ADS  Article  Google Scholar 

  55. 55.

    J. Ingram, P. Ericksen, D. Liverman (eds.), Food Security and Global Environmental Change (Earthscan, 2010)

  56. 56.

    R. Berger-Schmitt, H.H. Noll, Conceptual Framework and Structure of a European System of Social Indicators Eureporting. Working Paper No. 9, Tech. Rep., Centre for Survey Research and Methodology (ZUMA). Social Indicators Department, Mannheim (2000)

  57. 57.

    Global Environmental Outlook. Environment for development (United Nations Environment Programme, 2007)

  58. 58.

    A. Harding, S. Kelly, R. Percival, M. Keegan, Population Ageing and Government Age Pension Outlays: Using Microsimulation Models to Inform Policy Making, Tech. Rep., Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office, Government of Japan (2009)

  59. 59.

    A. Klevmarken, L. Björn, Simulating an Ageing Population. A Microsimulation Approach Applied to Sweden (Bingley, Emerald, 2008)

  60. 60.

    A. Zaidi, A. Harding, P. Williamson (eds.), New Frontiers in Microsimulation Modelling (Ashgate, 2009)

  61. 61.

    N. Meadea, I. Towhidul, Int. J. Forecasting 22, 519 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  62. 62.

    M.J. O’Brien, S. Shennan (eds.), Innovation in Cultural Systems: Contributions from Evolutionary Anthropology (MIT, 2009)

  63. 63.

    The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2002, Tech. Rep., Fisheries Department, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2002)

  64. 64.

    Low-income Food-deficit Countries (lifdc), Tech. Rep., Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nation (2006)

  65. 65.

    Y. Chen, X. Li, W. Su, Y. Li, Computers, Env. Urban Syst. 32, 407 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  66. 66.

    R. Burton, Sociol. Ruralis 44, 195 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  67. 67.

    N. Gotts, J. Polhill, J. Artificial Soc. Social Simul. 12 (2009)

  68. 68.

    S. Manson, T. Evans, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 104, 20678 (2007)

    ADS  Article  Google Scholar 

  69. 69.

    J.S. Lansing, J.N. Kremer, in Artificial Life III, edited by C. Langton (Addison-Wesley, 1994), p. 201

  70. 70.

    C. Washington-Ottombre, B. Pijanowski, D. Campbell, J. Olson, J. Maitima, A. Musili, T. Kibaki, H. Kaburu, P. Hayombe, E. Owango, et al., Agricultural Systems 103, 117 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  71. 71.

    D. Parker, Agriculture, Ecosyst. Env. 101, 223 (2004)

    Google Scholar 

  72. 72.

    D. Robinson, D. Brown, D. Parker, P. Schreinemachers, M. Janssen, M. Huigen, H. Wittmer, N. Gotts, P. Promburom, E. Irwin, et al., J. Land Use Sci. 2, 31 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  73. 73.

    P. Ericksen, B. Stewart, J. Dixon, D. Barling, Value of a Food System Approach (Earthscan Ltd, 2010)

  74. 74.

    W. Friedland, Res. Rural Sociol. Develop. 1, 221 (1984)

    Google Scholar 

  75. 75.

    W. Friedland, Int. J. Sociol. Agriculture 9, 82 (2001)

    Google Scholar 

  76. 76.

    J. Henderson, P. Dicken, M. Hess, N. Coe, H. Yeung, Rev. Int. Political Economy 9, 463 (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  77. 77.

    H. Friedmann, P. McMichael, Sociol. Ruralis 29, 93 (1989)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  78. 78.

    P.J. Ericksen, Global Env. Change 18, 234 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  79. 79.

    J. von Braun, E. Diaz-Bonilla, in Globalization of Food and Agriculture and the Poor, edited by J. von Braun, E. Diaz-Bonilla (Oxford University Press, 2008)

  80. 80.

    D.W. Cash, W. Adger, F. Berkes, P. Garden, L. Lebel, P. Olsson, P. L.Y. O., Ecol. Soc. 11 (2006)

  81. 81.

    A. Sundkvist, R. Milestad, A. Jansson, Food Policy 30, 224 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  82. 82.

    L.C. Dreyer, M.Z. Hauschild, J. Schierbeck, Int. J. Life Cycle Assessm. 11, 88 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  83. 83.

    J.N. Galloway, M. Burke, G.E. Bradford, R. Naylor, W. Falcon, A.K. Chapagain, J.C. Gaskell, E. McCullough, H.A. Mooney, K.L.L. Oleson, et al., AMBIO: A J. Human Env. 36, 622 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  84. 84.

    L. Milà i Canals, J. Chenoweth, A. Chapagain, S. Orr, A. Antón, R. Clift, Int. J. Life Cycle Assessm. 14, 28 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  85. 85.

    D. Lyons, M. Rice, R. Wachal, Geograph. J. 175, 286 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  86. 86.

    F. Geels, Res. Policy 31, 1257 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  87. 87.

    M. Meybeck, C. Vörösmarty, in Vegetation, Water, Humans and the Climate: a New Perspective on an Interactive System, edited by P. Kabat, M. Claussen, P. Dirmeyer, J. Gash, L. Bravo de Guenni, M. Meybeck, C. Pielke, R.S. Vörösmarty, R. Hutjes, S. Lütkemeier, IGBP Global Change Series, International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme and Springer-Verlag (Berlin, 2004)

  88. 88.

    I. Shiklomanov, World Water Resources: Modern Assessment and Outlook for the 21st Century, Tech. Rep., IHP-UNESCO (1999)

  89. 89.

    Coping with Water Scarcity: Challenge of the Twenty-first Century, Tech. Rep., UN Water day (2007)

  90. 90.

    World Health Organization and United Nations Children’s Fund Joint Monitoring Programme for water supply and sanitation (JMP). Progress on sanitation and drinking water 2010 update (WHO Press, 2010)

  91. 91.

    T. Kalbacher, J. Delfs, H. Shao, W. Wang, M. Walther, L. Samaniego, C. Schneider, R. Kumar, A. Musolff, F. Centler, et al., Env. Earth Sci. 65, 1367 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  92. 92.

    E. Kalbus, T. Kalbacher, O. Kolditz, E. Krueger, J. Seegert, G. Roestel, G. Teutsch, D. Borchardt, P. Krebs, Env. Earth Sci. 65, 1363 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  93. 93.

    W. Medema, B.S. McIntosh, P.J. Jeffrey, Ecol. Soc. 13 (2008)

  94. 94.

    B. Walker, Ecol. Soc. 14 (2009)

  95. 95.

    R. Leakey, R. Lewin, The Sixth Extinction: Patterns of Life and the Future of Humankind (Anchor Pub, 1996)

  96. 96.

    H. Willer, L. Kilcher, The World of Organic Agriculture Statistics and Emerging Trends (IFOAM, 2009)

  97. 97.

    M. Miles, J. Covin, J. Business Ethics 23, 299 (2000)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  98. 98.

    H.M. Pereira, P.W. Leadley, V. Proen xxxcedila a, R. Alkemade, J.P.W. Scharlemann, J.F. Fernandez-Manjarrés, M.B. Araújo, P. Balvanera, R. Biggs, W.W.L. Cheung, et al., Science 330, 1496 (2010)

    ADS  Article  Google Scholar 

  99. 99.

    M. Felici, V. Lucarini, A. Speranza, A. Vitolo, J. Atmosph. Sci. 64, 2137 (2007)

    ADS  Article  Google Scholar 

  100. 100.

    M. Felici, V. Lucarini, A. Speranza, A. Vitolo, J. Atmosph. Sci. 64, 2159 (2007)

    ADS  Article  Google Scholar 

  101. 101.

    P.C.D. Milly, J. Betancourt, M. Falkenmark, R.M. Hirsch, Z.W. Kundzewicz, L.D.P., R.J. Stouffer, Science 319, 573 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  102. 102.

    R.W. Katz, M.B. Parlange, P. Naveau, Adv. Water Resources 25, 1287 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  103. 103.

    B.T. Werner, D.E. McNamara, Geomorphology 91, 393 (2007)

    ADS  Article  Google Scholar 

  104. 104.

    J. Posey, Global Env. Change 19, 482 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  105. 105.

    C. Fishman, The Big Thirst: The Secret Life and Trubulent Futre of Water (Simon & Schuster, 2011)

  106. 106.

    C. Londono, A.W.R. Ando, Valuing Preferences Over Storm water Management Outcomes Given State-Dependent Preferences And Heterogeneous Status Quo, in Annual Meeting of Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

  107. 107.

    F. Biermann, M. Betsill, J. Gupta, N. Kanie, L. Lebel, D. Liverman, H. Schroeder, B. Siebenhner, Earth System Governance: People, Places and the Planet, Tech. Rep., IHDP: The Earth System Governance Project (2009) (2011)

  108. 108.

    R. Bradfield, G. Wright, G. Burt, G. Cairns, K. Van Der Heijden, Futures 37, 785 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  109. 109.

    M.D.A. Rounsevell, M.J. Metzger, Developing qualitative scenario storylines for environmental change assessment (Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2010)

  110. 110.

    S. Bankes, Proc. National Acad. Sci. 99, 7263 (2002)

    ADS  Article  Google Scholar 

  111. 111.

    B. de Vries, Scenarios: Guidance for an Uncertain and Complex World? (MIT Press, 2007), chap. 19, p. 378

  112. 112.

    V. Grimm, J. Calabrese, What is Resilience? A short introduction

  113. 113.

    C. Holling, Ann. Rev. Ecol. Systematics 4, 1 (1973) (Springer, 2011), p. 3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  114. 114.

    L. Gunderson, C. Allen, C. Holling, Foundations of ecological resilience (Paperback, 2009)

  115. 115.

    G. Brundtland, Our common Future. Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development (Oxford University Press, 1987)

  116. 116.

    C. Perring, Env. Develop. Econom. 11, 417 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  117. 117.

    F.S. Brand, K. Jax, Ecol. Soc. 12 (2007)

  118. 118.

    N. Gotts, Ecol. Soc. 12 14 (2007)

  119. 119.

    B. Walker, S. Carpenter, J. Anderies, N. Abel, G. Cumming, M. Janssen, L. Lebel, J. Norberg, G. Peterson, R. Pritchard, Conservation Ecology 6 14 (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  120. 120.

    S. Martin, Ecology and Society 9 (2004)

  121. 121.

    G. Deffuant, N. Gilbert (eds.), Viability and Resilience of Complex Systems; Concepts, Methods and Case Studies from Ecology and Society (Springer, 2011)

  122. 122.

    M. Ajmone-Marsan, D. Arrowsmith, W. Breymann, O. Fritz, M. Masera, A. Mengolini, A. Carbone, Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics 214, 547 (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  123. 123.

    M. Ajmone-Marsan, D. Arrowsmith, W. Breymann, O. Fritz, M. Masera, A. Mengolini, A. Carbone, Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics 214, 547 (2012)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to G. Deffuant.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Deffuant, G., Alvarez, I., Barreteau, O. et al. Data and models for exploring sustainability of human well-being in global environmental change. Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top. 214, 519–545 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2012-01704-2

Download citation

Keywords

  • European Physical Journal Special Topic
  • Food System
  • Global Environmental Change
  • Integrate Water Resource Management
  • Complex World