Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

On the dynamics of the world demographic transition and financial-economic crises forecasts

  • Regular Article
  • Published:
The European Physical Journal Special Topics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The article considers dynamic processes involving non-linear power-law behavior in such apparently diverse spheres, as demographic dynamics and dynamics of prices of highly liquid commodities such as oil and gold. All the respective variables exhibit features of explosive growth containing precursors indicating approaching phase transitions/catastrophes/crises. The first part of the article analyzes mathematical models of demographic dynamics that describe various scenarios of demographic development in the post-phase-transition period, including a model that takes the limitedness of the Earth carrying capacity into account. This model points to a critical point in the early 2050s, when the world population, after reaching its maximum value may decrease afterward stabilizing then at a certain stationary level. The article presents an analysis of the influence of the demographic transition (directly connected with the hyperexponential growth of the world population) on the global socioeconomic and geopolitical development. The second part deals with the phenomenon of explosive growth of prices of such highly liquid commodities as oil and gold. It is demonstrated that at present the respective processes could be regarded as precursors of waves of the global financial-economic crisis that will demand the change of the current global economic and political system. It is also shown that the moments of the start of the first and second waves of the current global crisis could have been forecasted with a model of accelerating log-periodic fluctuations superimposed over a power-law trend with a finite singularity developed by Didier Sornette and collaborators. With respect to the oil prices, it is shown that it was possible to forecast the 2008 crisis with a precision up to a month already in 2007. The gold price dynamics was used to calculate the possible time of the start of the second wave of the global crisis (July–August 2011); note that this forecast has turned out to be quite correct.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. A. Johansen, D. Sornette, Physica A 294, 465 (2001)

    Article  ADS  MATH  Google Scholar 

  2. H. von Foerster, P. Mora, L. Amiot, Science 132, 1291 (1960)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  3. S.J. von Hoerner, J. Brit. Interplanet. Soc. 28, 691 (1975)

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  4. S.P. Kapitsa, A theory of the world population growth. Demographic revolution and information society (Nikitskij klub, Moscow, 2008, in Russian)

  5. A. Korotayev, A. Malkov, D. Khaltourina, Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth (URSS, Moscow, 2006)

  6. A. Korotayev, J. World-System Res. 11, 79 (2005)

    Google Scholar 

  7. A. Korotayev, Compact Mathematical Models of World-System Development, in Globalization as Evolutionary Process: Modeling Global Change, edited by G. Modelski, T. Devezas, W. R. Thompson (Routledge, London, 2007), p. 133

  8. A. Markov, A. Korotayev, Palaeoworld 1614, 311 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. A. Markov, V. Anisimov, A. Korotayev, Paleontological Journal 44/4, 363 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. H. Haken, Synergetics, An Introduction. Nonequilibrium Phase-Transitions and Self-Organization in Physics, Chemistry and Biology (Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1983)

  11. M. Kremer, Quarterly J. Econom. 108/3, 684 (1993)

    Google Scholar 

  12. A.A. Akaev, Doklady RAN, Mathematics 82/2, 824 (2010)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  13. J.K. Smail, Environ. Develop. Sustainability 4, 21 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. M. Wackernagel, N.B. Schulz, D. Deumling, A.C. Linares, M. Jenkins, V. Kapos, C. Monfreda, J. Loh, N. Myers, R. Norgaard, J. Randers, Proc. Nation. Acad. Sci. 99/4, 9266 (2002)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  15. V.G. Gorshkov, Physical and biological foundations of the life sustainability (VINITI, Moscow, 1995, in Russian)

  16. A.P. Fedotov, Globalistics: Foundations of the science on the contemporary world (Aspect Press, Moscow, 2002)

  17. D.H. Meadows, J. Randers, D.L. Meadows, Limits to Growth – The 30 year Update (Chelsea Green Publishing Company, White River Junction, VT, 2004)

  18. B.M. Dolgonosov, Non-linear dynamics of ecologic and hydrologic processes (Librokom/URSS, Moscow, 2009, in Russian)

  19. Ch. Fourier, Selected works vol. 2 (GIZ, Moscow, 1939, in Russian)

  20. A.A. Akaev, V.A. Sadovnichii, Doklady RAN, Mathematics 82/2, 978 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. A.D. Husler, D. Sornette, Evidence for super-exponentially accelerating atmospheric carbon dioxide growth, URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/1101.2832 (submitted)

  22. A. Korotayev, Compact Mathematical Models of the World System Development and Their Applicability to the Development of Local Solutions in Third World Countries, in Systemic Development: Local Solutions in a Global Environment, edited by J. Sheffield (ISCE Publishing, Litchfield Park, AZ 2009), p. 103

  23. V.I. Yukalov, E.P. Yukalova, D. Sornette, Physica D 238, 1752 (2009)

    Article  MathSciNet  ADS  MATH  Google Scholar 

  24. L. Grinin, A. Korotayev, Will the Global Crisis Lead to Global Transformations? 1. The Global Financial System: Pros and Cons. Journal of Globalization Studies 1/1, 70 (2010)

    Google Scholar 

  25. D. Bloom, D. Caming, J. Sevilla, NBER Working Paper 8685b (2001)

  26. A. Korotayev, J. Zinkina, J. Bogevolnov, A. Malkov, J. Globalization Studies 2/2, 25 (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  27. D.E. Bloom, J.G. Williamson, NBER Working Paper 6268 (1997)

  28. A.G. Vishnevskij, Economic Demography: An Analysis of Demographic Processes (Nauka, Moscow, 2005, in Russian)

  29. S.M. Men’shikov, L.A. Klimenko, Long waves in economy (Mezhdunarodnye otnoshenija, Moscow, 1989, in Russian)

  30. D. Sornette, R. Woodard, Financial Bubbles, Real Estate Bubbles, Derivative Bubbles, and the Financial and Economic Crisis, in Econophysics Approaches to Large-Scale Business Data and Financial Crisis, edited by M. Takayasu, T. Watanabe, H. Takayasu (Springer, Tokyo, 2010), p. 101

  31. D. Sornette, A. Johansen, Quant. Finance 1, 452 (2001)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. D. Sornette, A. Johansen, Physica A 245, 411 (1997)

    Article  MathSciNet  ADS  Google Scholar 

  33. A. Johansen, D. Sornette, H. Wakita, U. Tsunogai, W.I. Newman, H. Saleur, J. Phys. I (France) 6, 1391 (1996)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. D. Sornette, C.G. Sammis, J. Phys. I (France) 5, 607 (1995)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. V.I. Pantin, V.V. Lapkin, Philosophy of Historical Forecasting: Rhythms of History and Perspectives of World Development in the First Half of the 21st century (Feniks, Dubna, 2006, in Russian)

  36. C. Marchetti, N. Nakicenovic, The Dynamics of Energy Systems and the Logistic Substitution Model (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, 1979)

  37. A. Akaev, A. Fomin, S. Tsirel, A. Korotayev, Struct. Dynam. 5, 3 (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  38. D. Sornette, Why stock markets crash: critical events in complex financial systems (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 2004)

  39. D. Sornette, R. Woodard, W.-X. Zhou, Physica A 388, 1571 (2009)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  40. C. Perez, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages (Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, 2002)

  41. A. Akaev, A. Fomin, A. Korotayev, Struct. Dynam. 5/1, 19 (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  42. A. Akaev, V. Sadovnichy, A. Korotayev, Ekonom. Polit. 6, 39 (2010), in Russian

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Prigogine Institute of Mathematical Investigations of Complex Systems, Lomonosov Moscow State University, GSP-1, Leninskie Gory, 119991, Moscow, Russian Federation

    A. Akaev

  2. Lomonosov Moscow State University, GSP-1, Leninskie Gory, 119991, Moscow, Russian Federation

    V. Sadovnichy

  3. Institute for African Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, 30/1 Spiridonovka, 123001, Moscow, Russian Federation

    A. Korotayev

Authors
  1. A. Akaev
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. V. Sadovnichy
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. A. Korotayev
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Akaev, A., Sadovnichy, V. & Korotayev, A. On the dynamics of the world demographic transition and financial-economic crises forecasts. Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top. 205, 355–373 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2012-01578-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2012-01578-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation