Abstract.
We study a dynamical Ising-like model of agents' opinions (buy or sell) with learning, in which the coupling coefficients are re-assessed continuously in time according to how past external news (time-varying magnetic field) have explained realized market returns. By combining herding, the impact of external news and private information, we find that the stylized facts of financial markets are reproduced only when agents misattribute the success of news to predict return to herding effects, thereby providing positive feedbacks leading to the model functioning close to the Ising critical point.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
E. Callen, D. Shapero, Phys. Today 27, 23 (1974)
E.W. Montroll, W.W. Badger, Introduction to Quantitative Aspects of Social Phenomena (Gordon and Breach, New York, 1974)
S. Galam, Y. Gefen, Y. Shapir, Math. J. Soc. 91, (1982)
A. Orléan, J. Econ. Behav. Org. 28, 274 (1995)
D. Phan, M.B. Gordon, J.-P. Nadal, in Cognitive Economics – An Interdisciplinary Approach, edited by P. Bourgine, J.-P. Nadal (Springer, 2004), pp. 335–354
A. Johansen, O. Ledoit, D. Sornette, Int. J. Theoret. Appl. Fin. 3, 219 (2000)
T. Kaizoji, S. Bornholdt, Y. Fujiwara, Physica A 316, 441 (2002)
A. Krawiecki, J.A. Holyst, D. Helbing, Phys. Rev. Lett. 89, 158701 (2002)
S. Galam, Physica A 336, 49 (2004)
D. Stauffer, in Modeling Cooperative Behavior In The Social Sciences, edited by J. Marro, P.L. Garrido, M.A. Muñoz, AIP Conference Proceedings, Granada, Spain, (2005), Vol. 779, pp. 56–68
B.M. Roehner, D. Sornette, Eur. Phys. J. B 16, 729 (2000)
B.M. McCoy, T.T. Wu, The Two-Dimensional Ising Model (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass, 1973)
D. Sornette, Y. Malevergne, J.-F. Muzy, Risk 16, 67 (2003)
D. Sornette, Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems (Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2003)
S. Galam, S. Moscovici, Eur. J. Soc. Psychology 21, 49 (1991)
S. Galam, in Understanding Group Behavior: Consensual Action by Small Groups, edited by E.H. Witte, J.H. Davis (Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, New Jersey, 1996), Vol. I, Chap. 12, pp. 293–312
S. Galam, Physica A 238, 66 (1997)
Q. Michard, J.-P. Bouchaud, Eur. Phys. J. B 47, 151 (2005)
J.P. Sethna, K. Dahmen, S. Kartha, J.A. Krumhansl, B.W. Roberts, J.D. Shore, Phys. Rev. Lett. 70, 3347 (1993)
C.P. Gonçalves, Artificial financial market model, unpublished (2003)
J.J. Suitor, B. Wellman, D.L. Morgan, Soc. Networks 19, 1 (1997)
B. Wellman, R.Y.-L. Wong, D. Tindall, N. Nazer, Soc. Networks 1, 27 (1997)
C. Heath, R. Gonzalez, Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes 61, 305 (1995)
P.R. Darke, J.L. Freedman, Personality & Social Psychology Bulletin 23, 378 (1997)
N. Schwarz, G.L. Clore, J. Person. Soc. Psych. 45, 513 (1983)
N. Frijda, Cognition and Emotion 1, 235 (1988)
Handbook of Motivation and Cognition: Foundations of Social Behavior, edited by R.M. Sorrentino, E.T. Higgins, Vol 2. (Guilford Press, New York, 1990)
K. Savitsky, V.H. Medvec, A.E. Charlton, T. Gilovich, Personality & Social Psychology Bulletin 24, 529 (1998)
R.A. Weber, Y. Rottenstreich, C. Camerer, M. Knez, Org. Sci. 12, 582 (2001)
B.M. Lucey, M. Dowling, J. Econ. Surveys 19, 211 (2005)
J.R. Nofsinger, J. Behav. Fin. 6, 144 (2005)
P. Coyne, J.W. Witter, The McKinsey Quarterly, Number 2, (2002)
S. Ghashghaie, W. Breymann, J. Peinke, P. Talkner, Y. Dodge, Nature 381, 767 (1996)
R.N. Mantegna, H.E. Stanley, An Introduction to Econophysics: Correlations and Complexity in Finance (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000)
Y. Malevergne, V. Pisarenko, D. Sornette, Quant. Finance 5, 379 (2005)
Y. Malevergne, V. Pisarenko, D. Sornette, Appl. Fin. Econ. 16, 271 (2006)
D. Sornette, W.-X. Zhou, Physica A 370, 704 (2006)
E. Bacry, J. Delour, J.-F. Muzy, Phys. Rev. E 64, 026103 (2001)
T. Lux, Quant. Finance 1, 632 (2001)
J.-F. Muzy, D. Sornette, J. Delour, A. Arnéodo, Quant. Finance 1, 131 (2001)
B.B. Mandelbrot, Fractals and Scaling in Finance (Springer, New York, 1997)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Zhou, WX., Sornette, D. Self-organizing Ising model of financial markets. Eur. Phys. J. B 55, 175–181 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1140/epjb/e2006-00391-6
Received:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1140/epjb/e2006-00391-6