Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Struggle for Climate Rescue: The Euphoria of Plans versus Cold Reality

  • GENERAL SUBJECTS
  • Published:
Thermal Engineering Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract—

Possible outcomes from the decisions adopted at the COP26, the latest Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), for the world energy and upcoming climate changes are studied. The article suggests a group of scenarios for man-induced impacts on the global climatic system, which includes implementation of the COP26 decisions in the field of world economy decarbonization, reduction of methane emissions, and reforestation as well as alternative world energy development scenarios based on a low globe population growth level from the viewpoint of preventing dangerous global climate changes. By using the global carbon cycle and climate models developed at the National Research University Moscow Power Engineering Institute (NRU MPEI), changes in the chemical composition and thermal radiation balance of Earth’s atmosphere, as well as the global average air temperature, are evaluated for each scenario. It is shown that global warming by 1.5°С can only be kept if the entire range of measures suggested at COP26 on reducing the man-induced impact on Earth’s climatic system is implemented in the full scope while keeping the energy consumption and world population growth rates at the contemporary levels; however, there are serious doubts as to whether the proposed world economy decarbonization program can really be implemented. At the same time, the natural demographic processes are able to curb the growth of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere and decrease it even before the end of this century. In that case, the increase in the global average temperature by 1.8°С in comparison with that in the preindustrial period (1850–1900) may be quite safe and will not require large-scale reformation of the world energy sector.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price includes VAT (Germany)

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 4.
Fig. 5.
Fig. 6.
Fig. 7.
Fig. 8.
Fig. 9.
Fig. 10.
Fig. 11.

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. In this article, the term “energy” is understood to mean all processes related to energy consumption (electricity generation, transport, housing and public utility sector, and industry). Accordingly, the energy consumption is evaluated from the primary energy (coal, oil, gas, nuclear and hydraulic energy, and renewable energy sources); as regards non-fossil, it is recalculated to primary energy with the world average fuel rate at a thermal power plant (it was 303 gce/(kW h) in 2021 according to the BP data).

REFERENCES

  1. A. Michaelowa, “The Glasgow climate pact: A robust basis for the international climate regime in the 2020s,” Intereconomics 56, 302–303 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-021-1004-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. V. V. Klimenko, O. V. Mikushina, and A. G. Tereshin, “The 2015 Paris Climate Conference: A turning point in the world’s energy history,” Dokl. Phys. 61, 301–304 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028335816060070

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. V. V. Klimenko, A. V. Klimenko, O. V. Mikushina, and A. G. Tereshin, “To avoid global warming by 2°C — Mission impossible,” Therm. Eng. 63, 605–610 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0040601516090020

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), Release EDGAR v6.0_GHG (1970−2018) of May 2021 (European Commission, Joint Research Centre (EC-JRC) / Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), 2021). https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu

  5. CAIT Climate Data Explorer (World Resources Institute, Washington, DC, 2022).

  6. T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. M. B. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P. M. Midgley, Climate Change 2013. The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fifth Assesssment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK, 2013).

    Google Scholar 

  7. V. V. Klimenko, O. V. Mikushina, and A. G. Tereshin, “Glasgow-2021: The difficult road towards the 1.5°C goal,” Dokl. Phys. 67 (7), 215–221 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028335822070023

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. V. V. Klimenko, O. V. Mikushina, and A. G. Tereshin, “Do we really need a carbon tax?,” Appl. Energy 64, 311–316 (1999).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. V. V. Klimenko, O. V. Mikushina, and A. G. Tereshin, “Dynamics of biotic carbon fluxes under different scenarios of forest area changes,” Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 56, 405–413 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433820040039

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. FAO Production Yearbook 1994 (FAO, Rome, 1995), Vol. 48.

  11. Global Forest Resources Assessment 2020: Main Report (FAO, Rome, 2020).

  12. H. Liu, P. Gong, J. Wang, N. Clinton, Y. Bai, and S. Liang, “Annual dynamics of global land cover and its long-term changes from 1982 to 2015,” Earth Syst. Sci. Data 12, 1217–1243 (2020). https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1217-2020

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. M. C. Hansen, P. V. Potapov, R. Moore, M. Hancher, S. A. Turubanova, A. Tyukavina, D. Thau, S. V. Stehman, S. J. Goetz, T. R. Loveland, A. Kommareddy, A. Egorov, L. Chini, C. O. Justice, and J. R. G. Townshend, “High-resolution global maps of 21st century forest cover change,” Science 342, 850–853 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. V. V. Klimenko, A. V. Klimenko, A. G. Tereshin, and O. V. Mikushina, “Will energy transition be capable to halt the global warming and why the climate change projections are so wrong?,” Therm. Eng. 69, 149–162 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0040601522030065

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. J. Falk, O. Gaffney, A. K. Bhowmik, C. Borgström-Hansson, C. Pountney, D. Lundén, E. Pihl, J. Malmodin, J. Lenhart, K. Jónás, M. Höjer, P. Bergmark, S. Sareen, S. Widforss, S. Henningsson, S. Plitt, and T. Shalit, Exponential Climate Action Roadmap (Future Earth, Stockholm, Sweden, 2018).

    Google Scholar 

  16. Energy Technology Perspectives 2020 (International Energy Agency, Paris, 2020).

  17. A. A. Makarov, T. A. Mitrova, and V. A. Kulagin, “Long-term development of the global energy sector under the influence of energy policies and technological progress,” Russ. J. Econ. 6, 347–357 (2020).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. K. I. Vatalis, G. Avlogiaris, and T. A. Tsalis, “Just transition pathways of energy decarbonization under the global environmental changes,” J. Environ. Manage. 309, 114713 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114713

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. A. G. Olabi and M. A. Abdelkareem, “Renewable energy and climate change,” Renewable Sustainable Energy Rev. 158, 112111 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2022.112111

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. V. V. Klimenko, A. V. Klimenko, and A. G. Tereshin, “From Rio to Paris via Kyoto: How the efforts to protect the global climate affect the world energy development,” Therm. Eng. 66, 769–778 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0040601519110028

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. V. V. Klimenko, O. V. Mikushina, and A. G. Tereshin, “A combined model for analysis and projection of the regional air temperature dynamics,” in Proc. 23rd Int. Symp. on Atmospheric and Ocean Optics: Atmospheric Physics, San Jose, Calif., Feb. 26 – Mar. 2, 2017; Proc. SPIE 10466, 104666I (2017). https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2287753

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. V. V. Klimenko, “Why is global warming slowing down?,” Dokl. Earth Sci. 440, 1419–1422 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. V. Smil, “The long slow rise of solar and wind,” Sci. Am. 282, 52–57 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/SCIENTIFICAMERICAN0114-52

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. A. A. Akaev and O. I. Davydova, “The Paris Agreement on Climate is coming into force: Will the great energy transition take place?,” Herald Russ. Acad. Sci. 90, 588–599 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1019331620050111

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. World Population Prospects 2022 (United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, New York, 2022).

  26. IPCC, Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5°C Above Pre-Industrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways, in the Context of Strengthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty (World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, 2018).

    Google Scholar 

  27. World Population Prospects as Assessed in 1980 (United Nations, New York, 1981).

  28. T. Buettner, “World population prospects — A long view,” Econ. Stat., No. 520–521, 9–27 (2020). https://doi.org/10.24187/ecostat.2020.520d.2030

  29. W. Lutz, W. P. Butz, and S. KC, World Population and Human Capital in the 21st Century (Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford, 2014).

  30. S. KC and W. Lutz, “The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100,” Global Environ. Change 42, 181–192 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. S. E. Vollset, E. Goren, C. W. Yuan, J. Cao, A. E. Smith, T. Hsiao, C. Bisignano, G. S. Azhar, E. Castro, J. Chalek, A. J. Dolgert, T. Frank, K. Fukutaki, S. I. Hay, R. Lozano, et al., “Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: A forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study,” Lancet 396, 1285–1306 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30677-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. A. A. Akaev and V. A. Sadovnichii, “Mathematical model of population dynamics with the world population size stabilizing about a stationary level,” Dokl. Math 82, 320–324 (2010).

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  33. V. V. Klimenko, A. V. Klimenko, O. V. Mikushina, and A. G. Tereshin, “Energy, demography, climate — Is there an alternative to abandoning fossil fuels?,” Dokl. Phys. 67 (10), 434–439 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1134/S102833582210007X

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. V. V. Klimenko and A. G. Tereshin, “World power engineering and global climate after the year 2100,” Therm. Eng. 57, 1035–1041 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. J. C. Dodson, P. Dérer, P. Cafaro, and F. Götmark, “Population growth and climate change. Addressing the overlooked threat multiplier,” Sci. Total Environ. 748, 141346 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141346

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The article was written using the UNSD data on demographic and social statistics (UN, https://data.un.org/), UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, https://unfccc.int/), British Petroleum Co. (BP, https:// www.bp.com), the European Commission Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR, https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu), the United States Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC, http:// cdiac.ornl.gov), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, http://www.ipcc.ch), the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/ESRL, ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/), the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit (CRU, http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/), the Global Carbon Capture and Storage Institute (GCCSI, http://www.globalccsinstitute.com), the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO, http://www.fao.org/ faostat/en/#data), and the World Meteorological Organization’s European Climate Data Explorer (KNMI, https://climexp.knmi.nl).

Funding

This study was financially supported by the Russian Science Foundation and performed at the NRU MPEI in regard to climatic and demographic studies (project no. 20-19-00721) and at the NUST MISIS in regard to studying the energy resources (project no. 22-29-00680).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Research University Moscow Power Engineering Institute, 111250, Moscow, Russia

    V. V. Klimenko, A. G. Tereshin & O. V. Mikushina

  2. Energy Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, 117186, Moscow, Russia

    V. V. Klimenko, A. G. Tereshin & O. V. Mikushina

  3. National University of Science and Technology MISIS, 119049, Moscow, Russia

    V. V. Klimenko & A. V. Klimenko

Authors
  1. V. V. Klimenko
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. A. V. Klimenko
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. A. G. Tereshin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. O. V. Mikushina
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to V. V. Klimenko.

Ethics declarations

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

Additional information

Translated by V. Filatov

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Klimenko, V.V., Klimenko, A.V., Tereshin, A.G. et al. Struggle for Climate Rescue: The Euphoria of Plans versus Cold Reality. Therm. Eng. 70, 161–174 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0040601523030011

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0040601523030011

Keywords:

Search

Navigation