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Determinants of Economic Growth in Regions with Different COVID-19 Incidence Rates

  • COVID-19 PANDEMIC CRISIS
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Abstract—

The article examines the incidence of COVID-19 in Russia within a framework of the endogenous growth model. All regions of Russia were divided into three groups according to the incidence rate values, for each of which threshold regression models were constructed for 2008–2018, where the threshold is the stock of human capital. For group 1, two thresholds were identified, and a negative statistically significant relationship was found between public health expenditure and GRP per capita. This indicates the inefficiency of investments in terms of their opportunity cost. The regional health systems of group 1 require federal assistance. For groups 2 and 3, the dependence is also negative, but insignificant, indicating the need to modernize their healthcare systems, at least in developing the infectious service.

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Notes

  1. Porfiriev, B.N., Coronacrisis: In search of a “vaccine” for the economy, Nauchnaya Rossiya, December 8, 2021.

  2. Johns Hopkins COVID-19 Resource Center. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html. Accessed July 22, 2022.

  3. Johns Hopkins COVID-19 Resource Center. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html. Accessed July 22, 2022.

  4. Kheneneva, V., Since July 2, restrictions imposed due to the coronavirus pandemic have been lifted in Russia, Gazeta.ru, July 1, 2022. https://www.gazeta.ru/social/news/2022/07/ 01/18046442.shtml. Accessed July 19, 2022.

  5. Regions are distributed by incidence data. There was an outlier at the maximum; therefore, three regions were placed in a separate group. The rest of the data increased relatively evenly, so the dataset was divided into two groups.

  6. Group 1: Astrakhan, Belgorod, Ivanovo, Kaluga, Kostroma, Kursk, Oryol, Ryazan, Smolensk, and Tambov oblasts; the Republic of Karelia; Murmansk, Novgorod, and Pskov oblasts; the republics of Adygea, Kalmykia, Dagestan, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachay-Cherkessia, North Ossetia–Alania, Chechnya, Mari El, Mordovia, and Chuvashia; Kurgan oblast; the republics of Altai, Buryatia, Tyva, Khakassia; Tomsk oblast; Kamchatka krai; Amur, Magadan, and Sakhalin oblasts; the Jewish Autonomous Oblast; Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. Group 2: Bryansk, Vladimir, Voronezh, Lipetsk, Tver, Tula, and Yaroslavl oblasts; the Komi Republic; Arkhangelsk, Vologda, Kaliningrad, and Leningrad oblasts; Krasnodar krai; Volgograd and Rostov oblasts; Stavropol krai; the republics of Bashkortostan, Tatarstan, and Udmurtia; Perm krai; Kirov, Nizhny Novgorod, Orenburg, Penza, Samara, Saratov, Ulyanovsk, Sverdlovsk, Tyumen, and Chelyabinsk oblasts; Altai, Zabaykalsky, and Krasnoyarsk krais; Irkutsk, Kemerovo, Novosibirsk, and Omsk oblasts; Republic of Sakha; Primorsky and Khabarovsk krais. Group 3: Moscow, St. Petersburg, Moscow oblast.

  7. Hurlin C., Panel Threshold Regression Models, 2018. Chapter 3. https://www.univ-orleans.fr/deg/mas-ters/ESA/CH/ Geneve_Chapitre3.pdf. Accessed July 25, 2022.

  8. The author calculated models with one and two thresholds and chose the most adequate specification.

  9. Sergeev, A., The Ministry of Health reported a decrease in life expectancy by 3.3 years due to the pandemic, Rossiiskaya Gazeta, October 19, 2022.

  10. Sokolov, A., Money does not heal: What does healthcare reform lead to?, Vedomosti, October 15, 2020.

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Funding

The study was conducted within the Research Plan of the Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, “Regional and Municipal Strategic Planning and Management in the Context of Modernizing State Regional Policy and Developing the Digital Economy,” project no. 121040100283-2.

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  1. Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, 630090, Novosibirsk, Russia

    M. A. Kaneva

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Correspondence to M. A. Kaneva.

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Kaneva, M.A. Determinants of Economic Growth in Regions with Different COVID-19 Incidence Rates. Reg. Res. Russ. 13, 296–304 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S2079970523700612

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