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Housing Construction as a Factor in the Increase in Vulnerability of the Population of Large Cities to Natural and Technogenic Hazards

  • URBAN STUDIES
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Abstract

The aim of this study is to assess the degree of influence of commissioning of new large housing complexes on the main parameter of the Moscow population’s spatial vulnerability to natural and technogenic hazards: population density. The study represents a first attempt in Russian geography of natural and technogenic risk to link three types of data: housing construction, potential natural and technogenic threats, and dynamics of the actual population of intracity space. During the study, key housing commissioning indicators for Moscow for 2011–2021 were analyzed. Big Data (mobile operators’ data) made it possible to determine the actual change in population density for 2018–2019 on the largest possible scale, in 500 × 500 m cells. Indicators of the actual population density were compared based on mobile operators’ data on weekday winter nights in 2018 and 2019 with housing stock growth indicators for the interim period. The established dependence of these indicators can be used in the future to predict intracity population dynamics in studies of natural and technogenic risks, when longer time series of mobile operators’ data become available for Moscow. The study also examines factors that increase natural and technogenic hazards in Moscow areas related to housing construction. It was found that due to the limited availability of land resources for new construction on the territory of Old Moscow, most housing complexes are localized in areas of increased engineering-geological and technogenic hazard. Additional factors increasing risk are an increase in the number of stories and building density. They are characterized by a stable positive trend over the given period.

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Notes

  1. Presently, it is not possible to construct a longer time series, since systematic collection of information on the actual population based on mobile operators’ data in Moscow using comparable methods began only in 2018.

  2. According to data from the portal Real Estate Market Indicators, available at https://www.irn.ru/. Accessed April 12, 2022.

  3. This figure is lower than that presented above, since in this case, only housing built by private developers was taken into account, while the share of housing stock attributable to specialized residential premises, etc., was not.

  4. The Moscow General Planning Research and Project Institute. Appendix to the Law of the City of Moscow On the General Plan of the City of Moscow. Maps, territorial planning schemes of the city of Moscow. Book 2, 2023. https://genplanmos.ru/project/generalnyy_plan_moskvy_do_2035_goda/. Cited February 12, 2022.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The authors thank the Moscow General Planning Research and Project Institute for providing materials on the distribution of adverse engineering-geological phenomena in Moscow for this study, and also the Department of Information Technologies of the Moscow Government for providing mobile operators’ data.

Funding

This work was supported by ongoing institutional funding of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Moscow, Russia

    S. V. Badina & R. A. Babkin

  2. Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

    S. V. Badina

  3. Seven Suns Development, Moscow, Russia

    N. M. Skobeev

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  1. S. V. Badina
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  2. R. A. Babkin
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  3. N. M. Skobeev
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Correspondence to S. V. Badina, R. A. Babkin or N. M. Skobeev.

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Badina, S.V., Babkin, R.A. & Skobeev, N.M. Housing Construction as a Factor in the Increase in Vulnerability of the Population of Large Cities to Natural and Technogenic Hazards. Reg. Res. Russ. 14, 38–49 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1134/S2079970523600336

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