Abstract—
Official Chinese statistics data were applied to analyze the dynamics and structure of trade interactions between regions of China and Russia; the border effect on export and import flows was estimated. The analysis showed that import flows from Russia to China are distinguished by a significantly greater uneven distribution between Chinese regions as compared to export ones. Assessment of the gravity dependences indicated that, compared with other countries, the border effect on exports from Chinese regions to Russia was characterized by rather high values, and the barriers hindering access of Russian products to the markets of Chinese regions were higher in ad valorem equivalent than for other foreign countries. Based on the estimates obtained, it was revealed that in recent years, the import of Russian products to Chinese regions has faced large barriers compared to export of products from Chinese regions to the Russian market. It has been determined that with the leveling of barriers, the advantages of access to the Russian market will further strengthen the coastal Chinese regions, and exports to Russia may become even more uneven between Chinese regions. It is shown that with a significant reduction in barriers, imports from Russia to Chinese regions can increase due to an increase in the supply of Russian products to almost all Chinese regions. The estimates give grounds to state that Russian suppliers need to diversify the supply of goods between Chinese regions in order to bypass intermediaries and develop new regional sales markets in China.
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Notes
After 1965, there were 29 regions, and their increase is associated with the separation of Hainan Province from Guangdong Province in 1988, and in 1997, the separation of Chongqing Municipality from Sichuan Province.
ARs: Inner Mongolia, Guangxi Zhuang, Tibet, Ningxia Hui, Xinjiang Uighur.
Municipalities: Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Chongqing.
Calculated from China customs statistics data.
Due to the short time series.
The costs of sea and transoceanic transport are 0.6% of the cost of goods per day; rail and road, up to 2%. The average daily rate of sea and transoceanic transport is taken in the interval up to 34 km/h; rail and road, up to 80 km/h.
Missing data for 2019 were calculated by moving average for the previous 12 years.
GeoDist. http://www.cepii.fr/cepii/en/bdd_modele/presentation.asp?id=6. Accessed March, 2020.
Sea distances/Port distances. https://sea-distances.org. Accessed March, 2020.
Distance calculator. https://www.distance.to/. Accessed March, 2020.
The regressions are estimated for all Chinese regions, including up to 744 observations for each dependence.
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Izotov, D.A. Trade Barriers Between Chinese Regions and Russia. Reg. Res. Russ. 11, 230–243 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1134/S2079970521020052
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S2079970521020052