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Hydroecological Consequences of Climate Changes in the Water Regime of the Spring Flood in the Upstream of the Arpa River

  • SYSTEMATIC STUDY OF ARID TERRITORIES
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Abstract

The paper considers long-term trends in changes in river flow of spring floods, hydroecological and hydroeconomic consequences of climate change in the upstream of the Arpa River. The study uses data on average daily water consumption and water temperature in the Jermuk River section of the Arpa River, and data on the main meteorological elements at the Jermuk weather station located in the upstream flow of the Arpa River basin. It is presented that maximum water flow during the passage of the spring flood is one of the most important characteristics of the flood. The absolute maximum flows vary from 8.26 to 199 m3/s, and average maximum flows from 1.86 to 116 m3/s. The interannual changes of the dates of the beginning, termination, duration and volume of spring flood runoff, as well as temperatures of the surface air layer and precipitations in December–February and April–June, maximum water reserve in snow, and water temperature in April–June are have been considered and evaluated. It is shown that over the past 28 years, the volume of floods and their duration is being reduced, the terms are shifted towards earlier dates, and maximum water discharges during the flood period are reduced. It was also established that winter and spring–summer (in April–June) average air temperatures, precipitation in the winter period is increased, and maximum water reserve in snow becomes less. As a consequence of modern changes in the hydrological regime of the spring flood, multiple hydroecological and hydroeconomic problems are manifested that require increased attention and consideration. With interannual fluctuations, a change in the flow volume of the spring flood in the early to mid-1990s is clearly visible, after what a period of their significant and steady decrease started. The rate of change in flood volumes in the second period (1993–2020) was –17.9 million m3/10 years and –13.2 million m3/10 years. In the first period (1957–1992) there was an increase in flood runoff, the rate of change thereof was +9.63 million m3/10 years and +4.07 million m3/10 years, respectively. Over the past two–three decades, the volume of spring flood runoff has decreased by almost 50.1 million m3, while the runoff in April–June has decreased by almost 37.0 million m3. This trend is due to an increase in winter air temperatures and increase in the number and duration of thaws, which leads to a decrease in pre-spring water reserves. It is noted that in the upstream of the Arpa River basin, current climate changes are leading to significant degradation of the flood as a phase of the water regime: increase of the surface air temperature in the winter season is the main reason for the decrease in water content in the spring in the upstream of the Arpa River. Correlations were obtained between the values of the volumes of the spring flood in the upstream of the Arpa River, calculated from April to June and from the beginning of the flood to its end. This relationship can be used to estimate, calculate, and check the volume of spring floods, given the volume of runoff in April–June.

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Funding

This work was supported by the RA Science Committee and Russian Foundation for Basic Research in the frames of the joint research project SCS 20RF-039 “Short-term probabilistic forecast of river flow during the spring flood” and RFBR no. 20-55-05006\20 accordingly.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Yerevan State University, Yerevan, Armenia

    V. G. Margaryan

  2. Russian State Hydrometeorological University, St. Petersburg, Russia

    E. V. Gaidukova & N. V. Myakisheva

  3. Hydrometeorology and Monitoring Center (SNCO), Ministry of Environment of the Republic of Armenia, Yerevan, Armenia

    L. V. Azizyan

Authors
  1. V. G. Margaryan
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  2. E. V. Gaidukova
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  3. L. V. Azizyan
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  4. N. V. Myakisheva
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Correspondence to V. G. Margaryan, E. V. Gaidukova, L. V. Azizyan or N. V. Myakisheva.

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Margaryan, V.G., Gaidukova, E.V., Azizyan, L.V. et al. Hydroecological Consequences of Climate Changes in the Water Regime of the Spring Flood in the Upstream of the Arpa River. Arid Ecosyst 12, 123–130 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1134/S2079096122020093

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S2079096122020093

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