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Ecological forecast of changes in the state of aquatic ecosystems

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Abstract

A literary review devoted to the methods of ecological forecast is presented. A classification of forecasts is made according to the degree of system homogeneity (point or distributed), the period of forecast (short-term, medium-term, and long-term), and the level of detail. Qualitative and quantitative methods of forecast are distinguished. The qualitative methods include morphological analysis, the method of expert evaluation, and the analog method. The quantitative methods imply modeling intended for quantitative forecast (estimation) of indicative biological characteristics using imitation and regression methods.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

    N. G. Bulgakov, V. N. Maksimov, A. P. Levich, A. K. Yuzbekov & D. V. Risnik

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  1. N. G. Bulgakov
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  2. V. N. Maksimov
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  3. A. P. Levich
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  4. A. K. Yuzbekov
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Correspondence to N. G. Bulgakov.

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Original Russian Text © N.G. Bulgakov, V.N. Maksimov, A.P. Levich, A.K. Yuzbekov, D.V. Risnik, 2010, published in Uspekhi Sovremennoi Biologii, 2010, Vol. 130, No. 5, pp. 435–445.

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Bulgakov, N.G., Maksimov, V.N., Levich, A.P. et al. Ecological forecast of changes in the state of aquatic ecosystems. Biol Bull Rev 1, 134–142 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1134/S2079086411020034

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